SIO: DUDZAI - Tropical Cyclone

[cycloneye]

Up once again to intense.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE DUDZAI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 230 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 964 hPa.

Position on January 15 at 4 p.m. local time: 17.1 South / 73.6 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1920 km to the East sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3090 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST, at 13 km/h.

[sasha_B]

Looks like JTWC went with 120 kt / 942 hPa for the 18z best track point, which is....a little low, I think. Some gradual weakening may have started around 1830z but the storm is still a solid T6.5 (LG eye surrounded by CMG) as far as I can tell; the eye has cooled, but the CDO has actually become more consistent over the past couple of hours.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2011887962733391876

[sasha_B]

Dudzai doesn't even seem to be weakening anymore, at least for the moment. Very impressive satellite presentation as of 0z.

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5. MET
YIELDS A 6.0. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.

FT 6.5 per JTWC, but I would contend that it's awfully close to another 7.0. If the eye isn't already embedded 0.5° in CMG, it's trending towards that - the ring is expanding and solidifying. The eye is nearly as warm as it was around 18z, too.

[Hurricane2022]

Dudzai doesn't even seem to be weakening anymore, at least for the moment. Very impressive satellite presentation as of 0z.

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5. MET
YIELDS A 6.0. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.

FT 6.5 per JTWC, but I would contend that it's awfully close to another 7.0. If the eye isn't already embedded 0.5° in CMG, it's trending towards that - the ring is expanding and solidifying. The eye is nearly as warm as it was around 18z, too.

Looks to be intensifying again.

[cycloneye]

Definitly it has been a very resilient cyclone. It has so far 15.8 of ACE and has helped the Southern Hemisphere to be well above average. 88.4 (58.4)

[Hurricane2022]

TPXS11 PGTW 160016

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)

B. 15/2330Z

C. 16.73S

D. 72.18E

E. TWO/MET9

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0.
MET YIELDS A 6.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BRYANT

[cycloneye]

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE DUDZAI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 195 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 280 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 954 hPa.

Position on January 16 at 04:00 local time: 16.8 South / 72.1 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1775 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2930 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST, at 11 km/h.

System information:

Intense tropical cyclone DUDZAI is evolving over the center of the basin about 950 km east-northeast of Rodrigues, moving in a general westward direction.

- Starting this morning, the intensity of the system should begin to weaken, it should be downgraded to the stage of a tropical cyclone during the day.

- Starting this evening, DUDZAI is expected to follow a generally southwesterly trajectory, continuing to weaken this weekend. The trajectory is more uncertain early next week.

- In this scenario, DUDZAI will circulate to the Southeast of the Mascarene Islands, passing off Rodrigues on Sunday night to Monday and then in the Reunion-Mauritius sector around Tuesday.

Information for Réunion and/or Mayotte:

- No influence from this system is expected on Mayotte for the next 5 days.

For Réunion, the most likely scenario at present is a passage early next week (Monday or Tuesday) at a distance yet to be determined, but which should be significant enough to prevent the most dangerous conditions associated with the phenomenon from affecting the island. This scenario, rather reassuring in terms of its impact on the island's weather (potentially minor peripheral influence), nevertheless involves fairly long-term forecasts (4-5 days) and will of course need to be confirmed in the coming days.

Information for other areas of the basin:

- DUDZAI is expected to pass southeast of Rodrigues on Sunday night into Monday, then southeast of Mauritius on Monday night into Tuesday. Residents are advised to monitor the forecast through their national meteorological service.

[sasha_B]

TPXS11 PGTW 160016

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)

B. 15/2330Z

C. 16.73S

D. 72.18E

E. TWO/MET9

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0.
MET YIELDS A 6.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BRYANT

This is what I was thinking. Good to see the JTWC saying the same thing. I'm not sure Dudzai is a 140-kt storm yet, the Dvorak technique has its limitations, but setting the 0z 1-minute Vmax at 135 kt seems really straightforward at this point. You just don't need to factor in ADT if computer errors have led to it staying 20 kt below (or above) estimates from actual human forecasters for well over a full day, especially when there're no in situ data to back those numbers up.

At the very least, even if objective and subjective satellite estimates are to be weighted equally, this justifies 125 kt for the 0z BT point, meaning Dudzai's secondary peak won't go unrecognised.

[cycloneye]

JTWC at 125kts.

[sasha_B]

The forecast of 130 kt by 12z this morning is interesting. Personally I suspect it's already there - I've discussed why I think it's appropriate to round up from T6.5 now, when it wasn't during Dudzai's previous peak, in earlier posts. Besides which, the most recent Dvorak fix was T7.0 - but either way, there's little model support for continued strengthening...but there was little model support for this latest RI episode, so who knows.

Speaking of models, this is a big, early win for HAFS-A, which correctly anticipated Dudzai's return to MH-equivalent status and its sustained secondary peak at SSHWS Cat 4. Most climate models showed steady deterioration a la Cyclone Grant, starting 24+ hours ago.

[cycloneye]

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE DUDZAI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 185 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 260 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 950 hPa.

Position on January 16 at 10 a.m. local time: 16.8 South / 71.3 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1690 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2840 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST, at 13 km/h.

System information:

Intense tropical cyclone DUDZAI is evolving over the center of the basin about 880 km east-northeast of Rodrigues, moving in a general westward direction.

- The system has begun a weakening phase and should be downgraded to a tropical cyclone by this evening.

[cycloneye]

JTWC down to 110 kts.

[cycloneye]

Now is downhill for good.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 140 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 195 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 974 hPa.

Position on January 16 at 10 p.m. local time: 17.1 South / 69.6 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1515 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2670 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST, at 15 km/h.

System information:

- DUDZAI has weakened and been downgraded to a tropical cyclone. It is currently located approximately 700 km east-northeast of Rodrigues.