SPAC: Tropical Depression 07F

[Subtrop]

90P INVEST 260121 0000 12.3S 146.6E SHEM 15 0

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 166.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 167.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 233 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON 90P TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.0S 168.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY (MSI)
AS WELL AS A 262145Z METOP-C MHS 89V MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT INVEST 90P
COALESCING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERSHOOTING
TOPS ARE OBSERVED IN THE CURVED FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIMETER, AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING NEAR THE LLCC. A 262149Z ASCAT
PASS DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS
PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A BELT OF LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (5-10KTS) WITH DECENT
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
UNANIMOUS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITTING FROM GRADIENT LEVEL VORTICITY
SUPPLIED BY EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION PULSE THAT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE DATELINE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F CENTER [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.1S
171.2E AT 280600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 9 VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED
LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
WIND SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM, WHILE DRY AIR IS INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SST
AROUND IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Sciencerocks]

https://i.imgur.com/GKFoF6W.gif

Looks like a tropical cyclone to me. Probably 35-40 knots. Looks to have a closed LLC.

[cycloneye]

As of 6:00am this morning, Tropical Depression TD07F was located near 21.8°S, 173.6°E, about 580km west-southwest of Kadavu and 800km west of Ono-i-Lau. As earlier projected, the system remains well to the far west of Fiji.
TD07F is moving southwards at a fast speed of around 38km/hr.
Although it is a tropical depression, it is NOT expected to develop into a tropical cyclone, as it is moving into an unfavourable environment for further development.
While the centre remains far from Fiji, rainbands and strong northwesterly winds associated with TD07F continue to affect parts of the country, including the Yasawa and Mamanuca groups, western Viti Levu, western Vanua Levu, and nearby areas.
A significant wind gust of 70km/hr (37 knots) was recorded in Nadi last night.
The satellite image below shows the current position of TD07F, along with the associated cloud and rainbands.
The Fiji Meteorological Service continues to closely monitor Tropical Depression TD07F and will provide further updates as necessary.