SIO: Tropical Low 30U

[Subtrop]

93S INVEST 260302 0600 16.5S 122.0E SHEM 15 1009

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.5S 122.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 122.4E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
REVEALS A BROAD DISORGANIZED REGION OF TROFING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. ANALYSIS OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BROOME
SUGGEST THE TROF AXIS, OR POTENTIAL DEVELOPING ROTATION, PASSED NORTH
OF THE STATION AT APPROXIMATELY 1200Z AND HAS NOW MOVED OVER WATER.
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20
TO 30KTS), VERY WARM NEARBY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 TO 31 C), AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
PREDICT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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