99S INVEST 260329 1200 8.9S 71.4E SHEM 15 0
SIO: INVEST 99S
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 99S
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.6S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 75.9E, APPROXIMATELY 213 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY
FLARING CONVECTION. A 311629Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED 15-20 KNOT
WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF 99S FURTHER DEVELOPING AND TAKING A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
9.6S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 75.9E, APPROXIMATELY 213 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY
FLARING CONVECTION. A 311629Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED 15-20 KNOT
WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF 99S FURTHER DEVELOPING AND TAKING A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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