SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone


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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Tropical Cyclone

#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 18, 2026 4:41 am

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is intensifying in the northern Coral Sea, and is expected to bring severe impacts to Far North Queensland.

Area affected
Warning zone
Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.

Watch zone
Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas, extending across the Central Peninsula to Weipa and Kowanyama.

Cancelled zone
None.

At 4:00 pm Australian Eastern Standard Time
At 4:00 pm AEST

Intensity
category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour

Location
within 35 kilometres of 12.7 degrees South, 151.9 degrees East, 780 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown and 950 kilometres east of Coen

Movement
west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) is currently at category 3 intensity in the northern Coral Sea. Narelle is expected to move steadily to the west and approach the far northeast Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Port Douglas. A severe impact is likely late on Thursday or during Friday.

After crossing the northeast Queensland coast, most likely on Friday morning, Narelle is forecast to continue its westward path, moving across the Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. As is crosses the Cape York Peninsula Narelle is likely to weaken, however, it is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Narelle will continue to move west across the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is forecast have renewed intensification, developing again to a severe tropical cyclone before moving towards the Northern Territory.
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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Tropical Cyclone

#22 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Mar 18, 2026 4:51 am

Uh oh :eek:
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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Tropical Cyclone

#23 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 18, 2026 8:04 am

27P NARELLE 260318 1200 13.0S 150.6E SHEM 90 977
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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Tropical Cyclone

#24 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 18, 2026 8:29 am

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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#25 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 18, 2026 9:08 am

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is intensifying in the northern Coral Sea, and is expected to bring severe impacts to Far North Queensland.

Area affected
Warning zone
Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.

Watch zone
Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas, extending across the Central Peninsula to Weipa and Kowanyama.

Cancelled zone
None.

At 7:00 pm Australian Eastern Standard Time
At 7:00 pm AEST

Intensity
category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour

Location
within 35 kilometres of 12.7 degrees South, 151.4 degrees East, 730 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown and 900 kilometres east of Coen

Movement
west southwest at 23 kilometres per hour

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) is currently at category 3 intensity in the northern Coral Sea. Narelle is expected to move steadily to the west and approach the far northeast Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Cooktown. A severe impact is likely during Friday.

After crossing the northeast Queensland coast, most likely on Friday morning, Narelle is forecast to continue its westward path. As it crosses the Cape York Peninsula Narelle is likely to weaken, however, it is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Narelle will then continue to move west across the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is forecast to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone before impacting the Northern Territory.
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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#26 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 18, 2026 10:48 am

Note that BoM does now use the Saffir-Simpson scale for winds. On its scale, a "Cat 4" storm has winds of 100-125 mph, which is equivalent to a Cat 2 to Cat 3 storm. However, the BoM also used 10-mi winds. It is conceivable that Narelle's winds could get to SS Cat 4 strength prior to landfall on the Cape York Peninsula Friday (115-120 kts). A SS Cat 5 seems unlikely.

https://www.bom.gov.au/resources/learn-and-explore/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/tropical-cyclone-categories
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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#27 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 18, 2026 11:10 am

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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#28 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Mar 18, 2026 1:27 pm

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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#29 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 18, 2026 3:27 pm

Both GFS and ECMWF intensifie it bigtime after it leaves NW Australia.

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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#30 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 18, 2026 3:30 pm

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle expected to bring severe impacts to Far North Queensland during Friday.

Area affected
Warning zone
Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.

Watch zone
Kowanyama to Weipa.

Cancelled zone
Port Douglas.

At 4:00 am Australian Eastern Standard Time
At 4:00 am AEST

Intensity
category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 230 kilometres per hour

Location
within 30 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South, 149.4 degrees East, 515 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown and 670 kilometres east of Coen

Movement
west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) is currently at category 3 intensity in the northern Coral Sea. Narelle is expected to move steadily to the west and approach the far northeast Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Cooktown. A severe impact is likely during Friday.

After crossing the northeast Queensland coast, most likely on Friday morning, Narelle is forecast to continue its westward path. As it crosses the Cape York Peninsula Narelle is likely to weaken, however, it is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Narelle will then continue to move west across the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is forecast to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone before impacting the Northern Territory.


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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#31 Postby sasha_B » Wed Mar 18, 2026 3:36 pm

Raw ADT #s just spiked to the 6.5~7.1 range now that the eye is warming on infrared imagery. LG eye surrounded by CMG (as of around 2030z) would yield a subjective DT 6.5 (before applying constraints). PT is also 6.0~6.5. I have a feeling Narelle could exceed the JTWC's (fairly aggressive) forecast peak of 115 kt at this rate.
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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#32 Postby Cargill » Wed Mar 18, 2026 3:56 pm

wxman57 wrote:Note that BoM does now use the Saffir-Simpson scale for winds. On its scale, a "Cat 4" storm has winds of 100-125 mph, which is equivalent to a Cat 2 to Cat 3 storm. However, the BoM also used 10-mi winds. It is conceivable that Narelle's winds could get to SS Cat 4 strength prior to landfall on the Cape York Peninsula Friday (115-120 kts). A SS Cat 5 seems unlikely.

https://www.bom.gov.au/resources/learn-and-explore/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/tropical-cyclone-categories


I concede I don't understand this. Are you saying that a "Cat5" in Australia is less than a "Cat5" in the Caribbean? I thought both agencies use the SS Scale.
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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 18, 2026 4:49 pm

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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#34 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 18, 2026 4:54 pm

History may be in the making if the three landfalls occur.

 https://x.com/jnmet/status/2034274852958286029

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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#35 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 18, 2026 5:16 pm

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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#36 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Mar 18, 2026 5:57 pm

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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#37 Postby Ulf » Wed Mar 18, 2026 6:56 pm

Cargill wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Note that BoM does now use the Saffir-Simpson scale for winds. On its scale, a "Cat 4" storm has winds of 100-125 mph, which is equivalent to a Cat 2 to Cat 3 storm. However, the BoM also used 10-mi winds. It is conceivable that Narelle's winds could get to SS Cat 4 strength prior to landfall on the Cape York Peninsula Friday (115-120 kts). A SS Cat 5 seems unlikely.

https://www.bom.gov.au/resources/learn-and-explore/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/tropical-cyclone-categories


I concede I don't understand this. Are you saying that a "Cat5" in Australia is less than a "Cat5" in the Caribbean? I thought both agencies use the SS Scale.


Aus Cat 5 begins at 125 mph 10-min winds which generally equates to either 145 mph or 150 mph 1-min winds which are the upper half of SS Cat4.

For example, last year's Cyclone Zelia was Aus Cat5 at 130 mph 10-min but only a SS Cat 4 at 150 mph 1-min per JTWC.

For Narelle, it is currently forecast to intensify to Aus Cat 5 but I don't think it has enough time to make it to SS Cat 5 before first landfall. After reaching the indian ocean will be a better bet for SS Cat 5
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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#38 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Mar 18, 2026 7:49 pm

Narelle is now a Cetegory 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone (AUS Scale) with 110 kt 10-min winds.
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For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#39 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Mar 18, 2026 7:56 pm

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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
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Re: SPAC: NARELLE - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#40 Postby Astromanía » Wed Mar 18, 2026 8:48 pm

Wow!
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