SPAC: MAILA - Tropical Cyclone


Moderators: hurricanetrack, S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
sasha_B
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 349
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jun 30, 2024 4:32 pm
Location: Charleston, SC

Re: SPAC: MAILA - Tropical Cyclone

#21 Postby sasha_B » Sun Apr 05, 2026 9:12 am

6z GFS takes Maila to 921 hPa with surface winds just over 115 kt at +72h, though as is often the case with lower-resolution model outputs the wind-pressure relationship doesn't quite add up - a 115 kt storm would be unlikely to attain that depth at ~10°S, and a 921 hPa cyclone would likely produce winds closer to 130 kt. Either way, that sort of solution would land Maila among the strongest and most intense storms of the year so far.

Worth noting that the GFS remains the top end of the guidance envelope, though. HAFS shows Maila peaking closer to 100 kt; HWRF scarcely gets above 90 kt; AI-GFS shows steady weakening (???) over the next 96h, and the Euro shows a fairly steady state in the short-term, with serious intensification only beginning once the storm starts to accelerate southwest towards Australia beyond the 96-hour range.

Maila is clearly intensifying right now, though, so I'm not going to lend too much weight to the lower-end model solutions. Fwiw the JTWC doesn't seem to have done so, either - their forecast peak as of 15z is 110 kt at +36 hours.
2 likes   


Return to “Active Storms - SE Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal, SouthPAC”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests