SIO: GEZANI - Tropical Cyclone

[cycloneye]

Landfall.

[Hurricane2022]

The eye is right over Toamasina
 https://x.com/i/status/2021263727354429862

[sasha_B]

Intensity at peak/landfall may have been closer to 115～120 kt. Subjective and objective satellite estimates in the hours leading up to landfall were a consensus 6.0+; the JTWC had DT 5.5 for 1430z, but applying the EIR eye pattern gives 6.0 (WMG eye surrounded by LG +1.0 adjustment for B), and their CI was of course still 6.0 based on the 1130z fix. CKZ yields 949 hPa for a 115 kt storm, or 945 hPa for 120 kt. ADT had also been hovering around 6.2～6.3, which would indicate nearly 120 kt.

Landfall must have been really close to the FMMT weather station - I wonder what the surface data there will show.

[Hurricane2022]

[cycloneye]

From Wikipedia about the city of Toamasina where over 325,000 people live. Prayers to them.

Toamasina (Malagasy pronunciation: [toˈmasinə̥]), meaning "like salt" or "salty", unofficially and in French Tamatave or in the past as Port aux prunes, is the capital of the Atsinanana region on the east coast of Madagascar on the Indian Ocean. The city is the chief seaport of the country, situated 215 km (134 mi) northeast of its capital and largest city Antananarivo. In 2018 Toamasina had a population of 325,857.

[Ulf]

Last time a tropical cyclone made landfall near Toamasina at this intensity was Cyclone Geralda in 1994 and the result was catastrophic with 231 deaths and more than 350k people left homeless.

[cycloneye]

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE GEZANI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 175 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 250 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 955 hPa.

Position on February 10 at 10 p.m. local time: 18.1 South / 49.3 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 705 km to the WEST-NORTH-WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 730 km to the SOUTH-EAST sector

Movement: WEST, at 15 km/h.

System information:

Intense Tropical Cyclone Gezani made landfall around 7 p.m. off the coast of Madagascar on Tuesday, and the city of Taomasina (Tamatave) was directly struck by the most intense part of the cyclone (eyewall). This could be one of the most intense direct impacts of the satellite era on the Tamatave area, likely rivaling that of Cyclone Geralda (February 1994). Currently, the system is located about 30 km west of Tamatave and is gradually moving away. It is expected to cross the island from east to west on Wednesday, weakening as it moves, and emerge Wednesday evening in the Mozambique Channel as a moderate tropical storm about 150 km north of the city of Morondava. Further intensification is then expected. It could reach tropical cyclone status around Friday, following a track that gradually curves southwest.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/2021396258754265464

[cycloneye]

DEPRESSION ON EARTH GEZANI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: not specified.

Position on February 11 at 10 a.m. local time: 18.3 South / 46.2 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 995 km to the WEST-NORTH-WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 620 km to the South sector

Movement: WEST, at 28 km/h.

System information:

Following its landfall last night, GEZANI weakened and was downgraded to a tropical depression over land. It is located in the northern part of Antananarivo province. It is expected to cross the island from east to west on Wednesday, weakening as it moves across, and emerge Wednesday evening in the Mozambique Channel as a moderate tropical storm about 100 km from the city of Morondava. Further intensification is then expected in the Channel. It could reach tropical cyclone strength around Friday on a track gradually curving southwest

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/jnmet/status/2021562120438268209

[cycloneye]

As of this post, 9 fatalities have occured and there are 19 that have been injured.

 https://x.com/trtworld/status/2021558844409651575

[cycloneye]

More bad news as the death toll rises to 20.

 https://x.com/WeatherMonitors/status/2021582229009256882

[cycloneye]

Is now entering the Mozambique channel.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2021604862837043287

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM GEZANI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1003 hPa.

Position on February 11 at 10 p.m. local time: 19.0 South / 43.5 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1250 km to the WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 710 km to the SOUTH-SOUTHWEST sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 20 km/h.

System information:

- GEZANI re-emerged in the Mozambique Channel this Wednesday afternoon in west-central Madagascar, approximately 80 km south of Maintirano (southern Mahajanga province). The system is already showing signs of re-intensification, with an intensity estimated at the lower end of the moderate tropical storm stage this Wednesday evening.

- Further intensification is expected in the coming days as it crosses the Canal. It could reach tropical cyclone strength around Friday, following a trajectory that gradually curves towards the southwest.

- A landing or a very close passage of the Mozambican coast (Inhambane province) between Friday night and Saturday morning is probable

[cycloneye]

Impressive.

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/2021604862837043287

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM GEZANI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 85 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 999 hPa.

Position on February 12 at 04:00 local time: 19.4 South / 42.0 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1390 km to the WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 800 km to the SOUTH-SOUTHWEST sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 24 km/h.

System information:

- GEZANI re-emerged in the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday afternoon and is gradually intensifying as it moves away from Madagascar. It is currently a moderate tropical storm.

- Further intensification is expected in the coming days as it crosses the Channel. It could reach tropical cyclone strength by tonight on a track gradually curving southwest. Intensification to intense tropical cyclone strength is possible Friday evening before approaching the coast of Mozambique.

[Hurricane2022]

[sasha_B]

T3.5 from JTWC - their 0z best track point is 50kt, 999 hPa, but that may be a little low given the MW images from 2234 and 0052, which do not seem to have been accounted for in their 'additional positions' section. Seems like Gezani is reintensifying ahead of schedule - a second 100kt+ peak isn't out of the question, based on the current trend & the multiple models in the 18z intensity guidance showing exactly that scenario. (HWRF even forecasting another run at SSHWS Category 4.) Raw T#s from UW-CIMSS shot up to 5.1 at 2330z, and haven't yet gone down yet. Even a conservative blend of the data supports 55 kt and 992 hPa - it's hard to go any lower with evidence of an eye on MW, but the recent land interaction (& how badly it seemed to have been disrupted over Madagascar) is cause for playing it safe.

Gezani exceeding the JTWC's forecast of 75 kt on its next close approach to land is looking more and more likely, even if the wilder hurricane model outputs don't verify.

[sasha_B]

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI)

B. 12/0230Z

C. 19.83S

D. 41.66E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T4.5/4.5 STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 34A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG YIELDS
AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS
3.5. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/0052Z 19.72S 42.15E GPMI

JTWC's 0230z satellite bulletin has been corrected based on the latest microwave imagery & large eye on EIR (which is also evident in the first VIS frames since sunrise). Safe to say that Gezani will probably be upgraded to 65+ kt for 06z.