SIO: GEZANI - Tropical Cyclone

[cycloneye]

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SEVERE TROPICAL STORM GEZANI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 990 hPa.

Position on February 12 at 10 a.m. local time: 19.8 South / 41.0 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1490 km to the WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 900 km to the SOUTH-SOUTHWEST sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 19 km/h.

System information:

- GEZANI continues to move away from Madagascar in a west-southwest direction while intensifying. It is at the stage of a severe tropical storm.

- Further intensification is expected in the coming days as it crosses the Channel. It could reach tropical cyclone strength by tonight on a track gradually curving southwest. Intensification to intense tropical cyclone strength is possible Friday evening before approaching the coast of Mozambique.

- A very close passage to the Mozambican coast or even a temporary landing is envisaged between Friday night to Saturday and Saturday morning at the level of the province of Inhambane, but the distance of passage remains to be specified.

[cycloneye]

The eye is back.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Gezani


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 983 hPa.

Position on February 12 at 4 p.m. local time: 20.3 South / 39.9 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1595 km to the WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1000 km to the SOUTH-WEST sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 20 km/h.

System information:

- GEZANI continues to approach the Mozambican coast in a west-southwest direction, intensifying as it moves towards the tropical cyclone stage.

- Further intensification is expected over the next 36 hours as it crosses the Channel. It will remain a tropical cyclone on a track gradually curving southwestward. Intensification to an intense tropical cyclone is possible Friday evening before approaching the coast of Mozambique.

- A very close passage to the Mozambican coast or even a temporary landing is envisaged between Friday night to Saturday and Saturday morning at the level of the province of Inhambane, but the distance of passage remains to be specified.

[sasha_B]

The eye is not only well-defined but is now clearing out once again. An OW eye surrounded by LG gives an E# of 5.0 + 0.5 for B for DT=5.5 before applying constraints. No reason not to use the DT other than continuity / constraints, but this is clearly a rapidly intensifying storm. Even accounting for the lower objective estimates (ADT appears stuck around T3.5 again) it's hard to say how Gezani could be any weaker than 90 kt / 966 hPa as of 1430z.

Edit: JTWC is now forecasting a 110 kt peak for the 2026.02.14/0z forecast point, suggesting the potential for nearly 36 hours of continued intensification.

[Teban54]

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2021969973254774808

[sasha_B]

It seems that Gezani may have been disrupted by the shear mentioned above, as the eye appears to have expanded and is far less clear, and the deepest convection in the CDO has waned considerably. There are still bursts with cloud tops down to －80°C in the eyewall, but they are no longer fully encircling it. JTWC has the following satellite bulletin for 1730z:

F. T5.0/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS
AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS
4.0. DBO DT.

...and the CI listed indicates that they've adjusted their fix for 1430 to T5.5 (up from T4.5 on the bulletin). Writing an hour later, even DT5.0 would be generous, as you'd have to impose a -0.5 eye adjustment now that there's no longer an intact B ring; the current weakening spell has been nearly as abrupt as the earlier intensification.

If Gezani continues to struggle from here on out, its post-Madagascar peak may have been around 1430z, and a bit stronger than the 85 kt BT point for 18z. If it manages to re-establish the kind of eyewall it had earlier & continue intensifying through tomorrow (as forecast), another 105+ kt peak remains within the realm of possibility - several models still show it reaching such an intensity 18～36 hours from now.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Gezani


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 215 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 966 hPa.

Position on February 12 at 10 p.m. local time: 20.7 South / 39.1 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1670 km to the WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1090 km to the SOUTH-WEST sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

- Tropical Cyclone GEZANI is developing over the central Mozambique Channel, approximately 200km northwest of Europa, and is intensifying. It is still moving west-southwest.

- Over the next 24 to 36 hours, GEZANI is expected to gradually move southwest and then south, likely becoming an intense tropical cyclone. It could be located very close to the coast of Mozambique during the night of Friday to Saturday, or even make landfall there.

[cycloneye]

Bulletin dated February 13 at 04:21 local time in Réunion (03:21 local time in Mayotte):

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Tropical Cyclone Gezani


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 215 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 966 hPa.

Position on February 13 at 04:00 local time: 21.2 South / 38.0 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1780 km to the WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1200 km to the SOUTH-WEST sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 19 km/h.

[cycloneye]

Sad to see the extensive devastation.

 https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2022143699153826171