SIO: ANA - Post-Tropical

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SIO: ANA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Subtrop » Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:51 pm

93S INVEST 220119 0000 13.0S 58.0E SHEM 15 0
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Re: SIO: INVEST 93S

#2 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 9:41 am

It appears to be nearly a depression now. Will likely reach Madagascar as a TC on Sunday. Lots of uncertainty as to what emerges into the Mozambique Channel. Working on a forecast now.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 93S

#3 Postby MHC Tracking » Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:41 am

This is close to 93S' center. Using a reverse KZC calculator I was able to get a result of 39 kt for 1001 (subtracted 1 mbar as Tomasina isn't in the exact center of 93S, so it seems, with a circulation evident on ASCAT ~18 hours ago, and a presentation that has improved since, that we have a solid TS now.
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Interestingly, despite earlier model trends depicting a more northward track after leaving Madagascar, the storm is, in fact, going further south than suggested. Further south=more time over the Mozambique Channel=likely stronger system. I wonder if the HWRF has something when it shows a significantly stronger TC than the GFS oper and GEFS ensembles are anticipating. Only time will tell.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 93S

#4 Postby aspen » Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:09 am

The last several GFS runs have shown 93S only becoming a weak system over the Mozambique Channel, but a fragment of its broad vorticity spins off into a new developing TC as early as 72 hours out. This “child” system stays off the coast of Madagascar and becomes a hurricane-force TC, alongside a new system further east.
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Re: SIO: 93S - Depression

#5 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:51 am

The invest was upgraded to a depression by Meteo France yesterday. They're the official RSMC of the SW Indian Ocean. It may have been a TS prior to reaching Madagascar. Should regenerate into a TS in the Mozambique Channel.
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Re: SIO: 1 - Depression

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:48 pm

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Re: SIO: 1 - Depression

#7 Postby Hurricane2021 » Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:16 pm

Last edited by Hurricane2021 on Fri Mar 18, 2022 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO: 1 - Depression

#8 Postby al78 » Sun Jan 23, 2022 5:22 am

Presumably JTWC will start initiating advisories later today.
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Re: SIO: 1 - Depression

#9 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 23, 2022 10:15 am

JTWC has initiated advisories on what it is calling TC 07S. However, the official RSMC, Meteo France in La Reunion, has not upgraded it. I can't find any recent scatterometer data to justify an upgrade.
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Re: SIO: ANA - Moderate Tropical Storm

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 23, 2022 7:40 pm

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Re: SIO: ANA - Moderate Tropical Storm

#11 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jan 23, 2022 11:51 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 42.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 42.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.9S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.0S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.2S 34.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 41.5E.
24JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: ANA - Moderate Tropical Storm

#12 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jan 23, 2022 11:53 pm

Image
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Re: SIO: ANA - Moderate Tropical Storm

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:22 am

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Re: SIO: ANA - Tropical Cyclone

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:59 am

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Re: SIO: ANA - Post-Tropical

#15 Postby al78 » Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:38 pm

Looked superbly organised for a tropical cyclone that was almost completely over land.
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