SPAC: GINA - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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SPAC: GINA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 16, 2022 7:24 am

91P INVEST 220516 1200 12.7S 171.3E SHEM 15 1010


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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#2 Postby Iceresistance » Tue May 17, 2022 7:38 pm

JTWC has a TCFA for this system, it appears to be heading for Vanuatu.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue May 17, 2022 7:43 pm

Probably classifiable pending ASCAT.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 18, 2022 7:15 am

Downgraded.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.7S 171.E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 169.7E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU . ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) THAT HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE CENTRAL DEEP OVERCAST (CDO) AND
DRIFTED MORE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM ITS ORIGINAL SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. THE CDO HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED, INCLUDING
ITS MAIN FORMATIVE RAIN BAND TRAILING FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
DIRECTLY OVER THE LLC BUT STARTING FROM 60NM TO THE SOUTH AND
POLEWARD AND OVER THE CDO, VWS BECOMES HIGH (25KTS+). THE INCREASING
VWS HAS NOW OFFSET THE VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, HOWEVER, UNDER
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE SYSTEM RESUMES A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW
OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE CHANGE IN
TRACK, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. SEE REF A
(WTPS21 PGTW 180630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
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Re: SPAC: 26P - Tropical Depression

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 18, 2022 9:10 am

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Re: SPAC: Gina - Tropical Cyclone

#6 Postby Grifforzer » Thu May 19, 2022 11:05 pm

Tropical Cyclone Warning for the TEFEA (Tanna, Aneityum, Futuna, Erromango and Aniwa) provinces according to Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazard Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning for SHEFA (Shepherd, Epi, and Efate) province has been cancelled
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Re: SPAC: Gina - Tropical Cyclone

#7 Postby wxman57 » Fri May 20, 2022 6:41 am

Zero evidence that Gina is a tropical cyclone. Several ASCAT passes did not reveal any 35 kt winds. Dvorak has been < 2.0 for 36 hrs.
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Re: SPAC: Gina - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 20, 2022 10:37 am

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