SIO: DINGANI - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

SIO: DINGANI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 26, 2023 8:22 pm

SH, 94, 2023012700, , BEST, 0, 111S, 987E, 25, 1004, TD


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 942023.dat

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 29, 2023 12:26 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.2S
95.4E, APPROXIMATELY 146 NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 290949Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLC WITH LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS INDICATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH
SLP NEAR 1004MB. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH
SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:08 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.8S 94.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 93.6E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING
LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGH (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY
WARM (27-28C) SST, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG A WESTERLY
TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 02, 2023 7:42 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5S 91.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 90.7E, APPROXIMATELY 364 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 011243Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC
WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OFF TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION
DUE TO HIGH (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) SSTS. AN ENHANCED MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
(MJO) EVENT OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IS INCREASING INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG
A WESTERLY TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:12 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5S 92.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 031216Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 061556Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A
WEAK AND BROAD CIRCULATION ELONGATED TO THE WEST WITH A SWATH OF 20
KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
(25-30KT) VWS, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:18 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 04, 2023 7:15 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 04, 2023 7:18 am

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 04, 2023 8:29 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 91.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 446 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTIVE TOWERS PERSISTING SLIGHTLY WEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 032135Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS
REVEALS FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING, WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONSTRAINED
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28C) SSTS OFFSETTING MODERATE (15-20KT)
VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 04, 2023 1:42 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 06, 2023 8:17 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: Tropical Low 11U

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 06, 2023 8:24 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: Tropical Low 11U

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 07, 2023 7:38 am

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: Tropical Low 11U

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 07, 2023 9:32 pm

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:43 am WST on Wednesday 8 February 2023

Tropical Low 11U was located at 8:00 am AWST near 15.1S 95.6E, that is 350 km
south southwest of Cocos Island and moving west southwest at 19 kilometres per
hour.

Tropical Low 11U is expected to continue moving west southwest before passing
out of the Australian region (west of 90E) during Thursday. Gales may develop
on the southern side later Wednesday and the low could strengthen to tropical
cyclone intensity on Thursday morning.

The tropical low is not expected to impact the Cocos Islands or mainland
Australia.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3 pm AWST.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: Tropical Low 11U

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 08, 2023 10:50 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.2S 97.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 94.1E, APPROXIMATELY 1360 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER. A 080706Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE; HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE REMAINS FRAGMENTED AND WEAK. A 080320Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM SST VALUES (27-28C) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID-
TO UPPER-LEVELS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: Tropical Low 11U

#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 08, 2023 10:59 am

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: DINGANI - Moderate Tropical Storm

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 09, 2023 5:00 am

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: SIO: DINGANI - Moderate Tropical Storm

#18 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 09, 2023 1:28 pm

First ASCAT hit in 4 days indicates 35kt winds. Really struggling under strong easterly wind shear. Center is exposed.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: DINGANI - Moderate Tropical Storm

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:23 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: DINGANI - Moderate Tropical Storm

#20 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 10, 2023 12:13 pm

Bulletin of February 10 at 4:39 p.m. local time in Reunion (3.39 p.m. local time in Mayotte):

A low pressure system is currently present over the South West Indian Ocean.

A suspicious area is also present, and there is a risk of formation of another moderate tropical storm for the next 5 days.

In fact, in addition to the DINGANI system active in the basin, tropical storm FREDDY, currently in the Australian area of ​​responsibility, is heading west while benefiting from favorable conditions and thus has a significant risk (probability between 60 and 90%) of enter the east of our basin from Tuesday February 14 or Wednesday February 15 with an intensity reaching at least the moderate tropical storm stage.

There is no current alert in Reunion, and no cyclone threat is expected for the next 72 hours.

There is no current alert in Mayotte, and no cyclone threat is expected for the next 72 hours.

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 6

(DINGANI)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 995 hPa.

Position on February 10 at 4 p.m. local time: 16.0 South / 83.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 2920 km to the sector: EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 4090 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST, at 19 km/h.

System Information:

- Moderate tropical storm DINGANI continues to move west on Friday more than 2000km northeast of Rodrigues far from any inhabited land.

- DINGANI is expected to continue moving west tomorrow before moving southwest on Sunday. It could reach tropical cyclone stage over the weekend.

- At the beginning of next week, DINGANI should weaken while moving generally towards the west-southwest. According to the preferred scenario, the system should pass at a sufficient distance from Rodrigues not to present a significant threat. However, this forecast is still particularly uncertain and could change in the coming days.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2023”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests