#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:13 pm
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.2S 108.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 108.8E, APPROXIMATELY 384 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
A 031414Z METOP-C PARTIAL SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A WEAK AND BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS AND WARM (27-28C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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