SPAC: INVEST 91P

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SPAC: INVEST 91P

#1 Postby Subtrop » Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:40 am

91P INVEST 230312 1800 18.0S 173.0W SHEM 15 0
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:16 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.6S
173.1W, APPROXIMATELY 183 NM WEST OF NIUE ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH RAPIDLY ORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 120943Z ASCAT-C
BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
AROUND THE LLC. INVEST 91P IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KT)
VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
91P WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27
TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:28 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 173.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 172.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 122 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH RAPIDLY ORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. A 122257Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT
SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY ALONG
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C)
SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#4 Postby wxman57 » Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:34 pm

This feature has no future. Look way NW to 90P for the next storm.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#5 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:58 pm

This appears to have been a tropical storm a couple of days ago, even before it got tagged as an invest (11F by FMS).

 https://twitter.com/135knots/status/1634915925240721409



Image

Dvorak fixes from KNES:
13/0530 UTC 18.6S 171.1W T2.0/2.5 91P
12/2330 UTC 18.2S 172.3W T2.5/2.5 91P
12/1730 UTC 18.3S 173.1W T2.0/2.0 91P
12/1130 UTC 18.3S 173.8W T2.0/2.0 INVEST

TXPS26 KNES 130013
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91P)

B. 12/2330Z

C. 18.2S

D. 172.3W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT TREND. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/2257Z 18.2S 172.3W GMI


...COVERDALE
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 14, 2023 7:31 am

THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 171.6W IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 170.7W, APPROXIMATELY 48 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM
WITH FLARING CONVECTION, AND A RECENT 132121Z PARTIAL METOP-B ASCAT
DEPICTS AN AREA OF MOSTLY 15-20 KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH
A REGION OF 20-25 KNOTS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WHERE THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS PRESENT. THE MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM NIUE
AIRPORT AT 140000Z SHOWS WINDS COMING FROM THE NORTH AT 15 KNOTS AND A
MSLP OF 1010MB. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (10-15KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-
29C) SST. OVERALL GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
ALONG WITH UNCERTAINLY WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM WITH REACH WARNING
CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 15, 2023 12:28 pm

Up again.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 130 NM RADIUS OF 18.1S 171.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 29 TO 34 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 150000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 171.0W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.9S 170.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 171.0W, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
NORTHWEST OF NIUE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AND A 150058Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A BURST OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
VERY COLD OVERSHOOTING TOPS, DIRECTLY OVER OR VERY NEAR THE ASSESSED LLCC
POSITION. THE 37GHZ IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS WHAT SEEMS TO BE A MICROWAVE EYE
PEAKING OUT FROM THE CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TRYING TO FORM OVER
THE SYSTEM TO AID IN THE LACK LUSTER OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KT) VWS, AND WARM
(28-29C) SST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY EASTWARD
TRACK AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP IN THE UPCOMING DAY OR SO. THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE VERY NOT EXCITED ABOUT 91P AND SHOW LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE HEAVILY BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE VERY COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, LARGE AND
RAPID CHANGES IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED AND IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THE
SYSTEM MAY IN FACT REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN SHORT ORDER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 29 TO 34 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#8 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 15, 2023 1:21 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:This appears to have been a tropical storm a couple of days ago, even before it got tagged as an invest (11F by FMS).


That's not uncommon in some basins. Some RSMCs don't keep that close of an eye on the tropics and are very slow to identify potential threats, though this system wasn't a land threat. By the time it was tagged 91P it was already weakening and on its way out.
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