SIO: HERMAN - Post-Tropical

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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Tropical Cyclone

#21 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 30, 2023 11:17 am

aspen wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:
WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HERMAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HERMAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON TEN-MINUTE AVERAGE

I think I found the reason for the dreadful 55kts.
recently the BOM was sitting on that estimate but later they updated it to 70kt. is the JTWC trying to copy the BOM?

https://twitter.com/MhcTracking/status/1641465274334363648?t=g1y6AewzURN9o1u5EgAVog&s=19
in a way, yes

I really hope the JTWC isn’t going over to 10-minute wind estimates. I’ve always hated those. They’re over too long of a time frame to be practical, and can be very misleading (ex: Usagi ‘18 getting called a Severe TS based on 10-min winds despite being a Cat 2). 1-min winds are easier to convey to the public and measure with recon planes, which often aren’t in the eye/eyewalls for 10+ minutes.

The JTWC is also too weak with the pressure. They’re saying this is a 1004mb storm, so it doesn’t seem like 10-minute wind adoption is the sole cause of the bad estimate.

Yeah, and the eye on the storm is very tiny too.
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Mar 30, 2023 11:33 am

Regardless of agency shenanigans, this is a clear Category 3/4.

Image
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Tropical Cyclone

#23 Postby Teban54 » Thu Mar 30, 2023 12:19 pm

aspen wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:
WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HERMAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HERMAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON TEN-MINUTE AVERAGE

I think I found the reason for the dreadful 55kts.
recently the BOM was sitting on that estimate but later they updated it to 70kt. is the JTWC trying to copy the BOM?

https://twitter.com/MhcTracking/status/1641465274334363648?t=g1y6AewzURN9o1u5EgAVog&s=19
in a way, yes

I really hope the JTWC isn’t going over to 10-minute wind estimates. I’ve always hated those. They’re over too long of a time frame to be practical, and can be very misleading (ex: Usagi ‘18 getting called a Severe TS based on 10-min winds despite being a Cat 2). 1-min winds are easier to convey to the public and measure with recon planes, which often aren’t in the eye/eyewalls for 10+ minutes.

The JTWC is also too weak with the pressure. They’re saying this is a 1004mb storm, so it doesn’t seem like 10-minute wind adoption is the sole cause of the bad estimate.

10-min sustained winds can make sense if we also adjust the category classifications correspondingly, that is, a SSHWS Cat 3 remains a Cat 3. In the ongoing discussion in the Ian landfall intensity thread, some users and mets have made the point that 1-min sustained winds overestimate the peak winds that most people in the landfall area will experience, so 10-min winds may be more representative of that for the purpose of public communication.
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#24 Postby wxman57 » Thu Mar 30, 2023 12:29 pm

Subtrop wrote:
IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:40 pm WST on Thursday 30 March 2023

Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman (Category 3) was located at 8:00 pm AWST near
15.6S 105.4E, that is 570 km south of Christmas Island and moving east
southeast at 15 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman has continued to intensify well offshore of the
Australian mainland. It is expected to continue moving southeast as it begins
to weaken during Friday. From Friday night and during the weekend it is then
expected to move towards the west, further away from the Australian coast, as
it continues to steadily weaken.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3 am AWST.


FYI, Cat 3 Australia is wind speed 65-85 kts.
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:43 pm

TXXS22 KNES 301832
TCSSIO

A. 17S (HERMAN)

B. 30/1730Z

C. 16.4S

D. 105.7E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...A MG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN W RESULTS IN
A DT OF 6.0. THE MET IS 4.5 DUE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER 24 HOURS. THE
PT IS 5.0. THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT IS 5.9. THE FT IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR
AVERAGE DT WHICH JUSTIFIES BREAKING CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

30/1137Z 15.8S 105.5E SSMIS


...BROWN
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#26 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:45 pm

SH, 17, 2023033018, , BEST, 0, 164S, 1059E, 95, 965, TY, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 15, 20, 1007, 225, 5, 0, 10, S, 0, , 0, 0, HERMAN, D
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Mar 30, 2023 3:05 pm

Image
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#28 Postby Hurricane2022 » Thu Mar 30, 2023 6:51 pm

Image
Image
At the moment I think Herman has an intensity at around 125 kt/935 mb.
TPXS12 PGTW 302112

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HERMAN)

B. 30/2040Z

C. 16.50S

D. 106.12E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF
6.5. MET=4.5 PT=6.0 DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/1844Z 16.40S 105.93E ATMS


DESSINO

I'm curious to know what JTWC will be up to at 00Z Best Track
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#29 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 30, 2023 8:19 pm

115kt

SH, 17, 2023033100, , BEST, 0, 169S, 1062E, 115, 943, TY, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1004, 120, 5, 0, 10, S, 0, , 0, 0, HERMAN, D,
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#30 Postby LemieT » Thu Mar 30, 2023 8:46 pm

The SHEM sure has been putting on a show this year.
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#31 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:28 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:37 am WST on Friday 31 March 2023

Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman (Category 4) was located at 8:00 am AWST near
16.7S 106.2E, that is 700 km south of Christmas Island and moving southeast at
10 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman has slowed it's development, while remaining
well offshore from the Australian mainland. It is expected to continue moving
to the south southeast today and begin to weaken. During the weekend it is then
expected to move towards the west, further away from the Australian coast, and
continue to steadily weaken.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman is not expected to impact the Australian
mainland or any island territories.
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#32 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Mar 31, 2023 12:57 am

Incredibly, a SAR pass at 22:28Z found max winds of 143kts (category 5)!

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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#33 Postby Subtrop » Fri Mar 31, 2023 1:56 am

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: category 5, sustained winds near the centre of 205 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 285 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 17.3 degrees South, 106.5 degrees East , 770 kilometres south of Christmas Island and 950 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth .
Movement: south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman has intensified to a category 5 system, while remaining well offshore from the Australian mainland. It is expected to continue moving to the south southeast for the remainder of today and begin to weaken imminently. During the weekend it is then expected to move towards the west, further away from the Australian coast, and continue to steadily weaken.


IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:38 pm WST on Friday 31 March 2023

Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman (Category 5) was located at 2:00 pm AWST near
17.3S 106.5E, that is 770 km south of Christmas Island and moving south
southeast at 11 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman has intensified to a category 5 system, while
remaining well offshore from the Australian mainland. It is expected to
continue moving to the south southeast for the remainder of today and begin to
weaken imminently. During the weekend it is then expected to move towards the
west, further away from the Australian coast, and continue to steadily weaken.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman is not expected to impact the Australian
mainland or any island territories.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 pm AWST.
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#34 Postby Subtrop » Fri Mar 31, 2023 5:27 am

TPXS12 PGTW 310901

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HERMAN)

B. 31/0830Z

C. 17.51S

D. 106.64E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
31/0631Z 17.33S 106.60E ATMS


PETERSEN
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#35 Postby Foxfires » Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:52 am

17S HERMAN 230331 1200 17.8S 106.7E SHEM 130 933


JTWC up to 130kt
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#36 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 31, 2023 9:26 am

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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#37 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Mar 31, 2023 9:35 am

LemieT wrote:The SHEM sure has been putting on a show this year.


And the NHEM (especially the WPAC and EPAC) have yet to wake up. 2023 could be an up year for global tropical cyclones, unlike 2021 or 2022.
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#38 Postby wxman57 » Fri Mar 31, 2023 12:42 pm

Herman is clearly weakening now. Should rapidly weaken over the weekend and be a remnant low early next week.
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#39 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 01, 2023 7:40 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:38 pm WST on Saturday 1 April 2023

Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman (Category 3) was located at 8:00 pm AWST near
19.6S 106.9E, that is 800 km west northwest of Exmouth and 1030 km south of
Christmas Island moving south at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman, category 3, is moving slowly south well
offshore from the Australian mainland. Herman will continue to weaken and
should start to slowly curve to the west, further away from the Australian
coast, during Sunday.


Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman is not expected to impact the Australian
mainland or any island territories.
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Re: SIO: HERMAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#40 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 01, 2023 11:11 am

On it's way out to weaken and dissippate soon.

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