SPAC: INVEST 98P

[Subtrop]

98P INVEST 260224 1200 13.4S 170.4E SHEM 15 1009

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.6S 170.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 169.8E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH TIGHTENING, MOSTLY OBSCURED BY FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE IMMEDIATE SURROUNDINGS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 98P WILL CONTINUE
TO ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH GFS
AND GEFS DEPICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND
OTHER MODELS A BIT LATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.5S 168.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 168.0E, APPROXIMATELY 114 NM
NORTH OF PORT VILLA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVING CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10 KTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF STEADY
DEVELOPMENT WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.