ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

Do you think it's decoupled, Wx?

Decoupled from what? It's spinning over 80+ deg water and no frontal boundary in the region.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

93L is the most common type of storm I see forming this upcoming season, in both the GOM & off the SE coast of the U.S.A, homebrew and/or rather small & quickly developing. The main concern with these type of systems are they have a much higher chance of hitting land, than do long trackers that have to get all the way across the basin. In essence we could have less storms, but far more landfalls.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Do you think it's decoupled, Wx?

Decoupled from what? It's spinning over 80+ deg water and no frontal boundary in the region.

Do you think the MLC and LLC are stacked, or not stacked?

[wxman57]

Do you think the MLC and LLC are stacked, or not stacked?

Obviously it's still battling 20 kts of shear or more, which is the only reason it's not developing very rapidly. If the shear lets up a bit then it could become a strong TS or even a hurricane within 24 hrs.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think Alberto will be designated at 5.

I'm on my iPhone, somebody edit this post to include that forecast disclaimer.

[cycloneye]

I only will say that it looks beautiful.

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think Alberto will be designated at 5.

I'm on my iPhone, somebody edit this post to include that forecast disclaimer.

Added it.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Cyclone: When will the next ASCAT pass be?

[CrazyC83]

The ASCAT has a low bias too, and based on those wind barbs, I would put the intensity at 50 kt.

[Ntxw]

Interesting the ecmwf would score the coop from this out in medium range while many wrote it off.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar showing deeper convection beginning to wrap around to the Se side. and looking at water vapor there seems to be a little more moisture trying to rotate out of GA and north florida. may help it out a little.

[cycloneye]

Cyclone: When will the next ASCAT pass be?

Is not known because it can miss the area of interest,but let's see if the next one in a few hours catches the area.

[bg1]

Well, I guess there is a closed low after all!

This is potentially a very scary situation, as it may spin up rapidly.

If they don't start advisories at 5, they should at least put up tropical storm warnings.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-rb.html

[Chacor]

Well, I guess there is a closed low after all!

This is potentially a very scary situation, as it may spin up rapidly.

If they don't start advisories at 5, they should at least put up tropical storm warnings.

While they could certainly put up wind warnings and heavy rain warnings, it's not yet in their remit to issue tropical cyclone warnings publicly before a TC has been warned on. They're doing that internally this year but the public won't have access to these warnings.

[CrazyC83]

Well, I guess there is a closed low after all!

This is potentially a very scary situation, as it may spin up rapidly.

If they don't start advisories at 5, they should at least put up tropical storm warnings.

While they could certainly put up wind warnings and heavy rain warnings, it's not yet in their remit to issue tropical cyclone warnings publicly before a TC has been warned on. They're doing that internally this year but the public won't have access to these warnings.

A High Wind Warning (issued by a WFO) has the same wind criteria as a Tropical Storm Warning.

[Hurricaneman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Is it me or looking at recent radar images that there seems to be a forming eyewall, if thats the case we might be looking at a moderate to strong tropical storm, I give this storm a 20% chance of becoming a hurricane in the next 24hrs

[cycloneye]

Not much on intensity from both GFDL and HWRF.

12z GFDL

12z HWRF

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think Alberto will be designated at 5.

I'm on my iPhone, somebody edit this post to include that forecast disclaimer.

Added it.

Thanks.

[FutureEM]

From an Emergency Management angle, I'm guessing most EMAs are probably unprepared by this. Goes to show this can happen anytime of the year, even though dates delimit the season...nature itself is unpredictable.