EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Carlotta is more stronger at 5 AM PDT advisory.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
500 AM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 93.4W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...70 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THE TIME THE CENTER NEARS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. A
SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

Is the RBT out yet?

[Extratropical94]

Same intensity:

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 93.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

[Yellow Evan]

Held at 40 knts. Wow, surprising.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Hurricane Warnings up. Expected to peak at 80 knots, 90 mph. May get higher if it undergoes RI.

[cycloneye]

Here is the TCPOD for Friday afternoon's mission.

NOUS42 KNHC 141315
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-027

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM CAROLTTA
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 75--
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0103E CARLOTTA
C. 15/1315Z
D. 13.9N 96.2W
E. 15/1700Z TO 15/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[Extratropical94]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 10.9N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 11.9N 94.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 13.3N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 14.6N 96.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 15.6N 97.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR COAST
72H 17/1200Z 16.5N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST
120H 19/1200Z 16.0N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

New wording?
I haven't seen this one in a wind forecast yet

[Extratropical94]

[...]
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM CAROLTTA
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 75-- [...]

Oh, a new system

Now with the more westerly track, they might just approach the system at peak intensity.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 141446
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CARLOTTA HAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL
CONVECTIVE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A COMPLEX OF OUTER RAINBANDS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM
SAB...AND A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS IS 50 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH
QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/8. CARLOTTA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR
48 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE CARLOTTA TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY AND IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT CARLOTTA SHOULD TRACK NEAR
OR ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 36-72 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE WEST...BUT LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AFTER 72 HR...THE MEXICAN RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WITH A VERY SLOW MOTION.

CARLOTTA IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND OVER 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS
FOR CARLOTTA TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN 48 HR. THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 25-KT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND ABOUT A
25 PERCENT CHANCE OF 40-KT STRENGTHENING...SO THE EARLY PART OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. AFTER 48 HR...THE
INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO BE CONTROLLED BY HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS TO
THE COAST. IF CARLOTTA MOVES INLAND...IT COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. EVEN IF IT STAYS OFFSHORE...IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND WEAKEN AS SHOWN
BY THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...AND THAT IS THE SCENARIO USED IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.

USERS ARE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS
TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS AT 48 AND 72 HOURS ARE 80-110 N MI...
AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD
BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 10.9N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 11.9N 94.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 13.3N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 14.6N 96.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 15.6N 97.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR COAST
72H 17/1200Z 16.5N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST
120H 19/1200Z 16.0N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

[...]
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM CAROLTTA
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 75-- [...]

Oh, a new system

Now with the more westerly track, they might just approach the system at peak intensity.

They haven't corrected it since the TCPOD came out at 9:15 AM EDT. Yes,this is going to be a very interesting mission.

[Extratropical94]

Carlotta is about to move into waters with SSTs almost reaching 90 degrees!

[cycloneye]

No eye yet but is organizing.

[RL3AO]

No eyewall yet but certainly curved bands.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Dry air seems to have been ingested into the core. May temporarily slow the intensification process.

[euro6208]

i predict carlotta will peak at 70 knots before making landfall...

[Aric Dunn]

I see the beginnings of a partial eyewall developing. its probably in the 60 to 70 mph range now. hurricane by 11 tonight likely. seems to be cloer to NNW heading now as well.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah I agree, about 50 kt seems right for now.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50mph

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 93.8W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO CABO
CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST.
CARLOTTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD
APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND MOVE NEAR THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES...75-125 MM...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10-12 INCHES...250-300 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
GUERRERO...OAXACA...CHIAPAS...AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

Getting closer to hurricane intensity. Still got some ways to go though.

[Zanthe]

Starting to look better and better.

I think if the current deepening trend continues, we could start to see an eye forming anytime.
Btw, Hi! First post, lurker for a while~