ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
wxman57 wrote:I'm measuring a 12 and 24 hr movement of 300 deg at 15 kts. Weak LLC on satellite, as well as a few thunderstorms. Looks quite unlikely to develop over the next 24 hrs. I'd give it close to zero chance the NHC will call it a TD/TS by Friday morning.
It's best chance for development may not come for another 7-10 days if it reaches the NW Caribbean or nears the Bahamas.
I guess we'll have to look to that absolute MONSTER of a wave(soon to be storm) coming
off of Africa then....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
06Z NOGAPS
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
send 92 towards the islands but a little higher lat....probably because it developes it right away.....
also whats that forming off of Honduras going across the Yuctan and hitting my house!!!....
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
send 92 towards the islands but a little higher lat....probably because it developes it right away.....
also whats that forming off of Honduras going across the Yuctan and hitting my house!!!....
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Aric Dunn
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Its biggest challenge will be the sal that is to its north. what to watch for is if convection can increase some more then the nhc will likely increase chances more.
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Houstonia
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
ROCK wrote:06Z NOGAPS
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
send 92 towards the islands but a little higher lat....probably because it developes it right away.....
also whats that forming off of Honduras going across the Yuctan and hitting my house!!!....
DANG - what IS that?? If that were to confirm... er.. what IS that anyway??
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
It certainly doesn't have the look of a developing TC on MIMIC-TPW imagery:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html
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Portastorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Heh, whatever it is . . . it would move over my roof as well!
Silly NOGAPS.
Silly NOGAPS.
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I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
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wxwatcher1999
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I am wondering what that is that hits Texas. Are there any other models showing this?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
wxman57 wrote:It certainly doesn't have the look of a developing TC on MIMIC-TPW imagery:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html
most likely due to its relatively small size. the resolution is not that great on there.
only time will tell.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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Houstonia
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Re: Re:
ROCK wrote:wxwatcher1999 wrote:I am wondering what that is that hits Texas. Are there any other models showing this?
NOGAPS is notorious to spinning things up....proabably wont be there the next run...
Shucks. It'd be nice to have a LITTLE T.S. for the year.
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CourierPR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Isn't this thread for 92L? This model chitchat involving a moderator needs to be taken elsewhere.
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Portastorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
CourierPR wrote:Isn't this thread for 92L? This model chitchat involving a moderator needs to be taken elsewhere.
The "chitchat" was in reference to a NOGAPS model run involving 92L. There were several posts which included a moderator (i.e. me) about an additional feature and, as you can see, whatever conversation about that additional, non-92L feature that existed has ended.
If additional mention of non 92L features in a model run appear and persist, we (moderators) will encourage that discussion to move to a more appropriate forum.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'd say 40-50% probably is a good estimate right now. That being said I think its going to struggle to go much further then what it already has.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
GFS weakly develops it but kills it off totally in the Caribbean, conditions don't look great past 50-55W above 15N.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
12Z NOGAPS if its ok to "Chitchat"
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
still developes 92L fairly quickly thus more lat gained.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
still developes 92L fairly quickly thus more lat gained.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
Well,the squadron will be on standby for Saturday afternoon if needed.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDTIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 11/1800Z NEAR 13N 56W.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDTIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 11/1800Z NEAR 13N 56W.
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ConvergenceZone
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
2 PM TWO:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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