WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

JTWC Upgrades to Super Typhoon

2100z warning at 130kts and peaks at 140kts.



WTPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.3N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.5N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.7N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.9N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.9N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.8N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.3N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 128.5E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 31
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

HA Super typhoon, the JTWC just could not resist



T7.5/7.5

[cycloneye]

Loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[CrazyC83]

T7.5? That would support 155 kt, although other data if blended would be about 140-145 kt.

[phwxenthusiast]

as i was saying yesterday, seems an EWRC beginning to take place??

[greenkat]

as i was saying yesterday, seems an EWRC beginning to take place??

http://i50.tinypic.com/34618g5.jpg

Yeah, If you stare for a while you can see a subtle ring around the (current) eye. Cool.

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.8N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.0N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.3N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.5N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.6N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.9N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 128.4E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Latest Discussion...



WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 18W HAS DISCONTINUED ITS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PHASE BUT REMAINS AT SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUALLY SHOWS AN
ERRATIC, BUT GENERALLY POLEWARD MOTION. MSI ALSO DEPICTS A VERY WELL
DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH A 10NM ROUND EYE AND STRONG SPIRAL BANDING. A
242113Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED RING OF
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING TO THE
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS BASED ON AN AGREEMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE SMALL EYE EVIDENT IN
THE MSI. STY 18W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX, WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT RESULTING FROM THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING PRESENT OVER
ASIA AND THE PRESENCE OF NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W, LOCATED
ABOUT 675 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. AS TD 19W TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, THE
NER IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF STY 18W,
PROVIDING A NORTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER TAU 36, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER JAPAN WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND THE
STR WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ALLOW STY 18W TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE
IN AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS, GFS, JGSM, AND ECMWF BEING GROUPED FAIRLY
CLOSE TOGETHER. HOWEVER, GFDN AND EGRR CONTINUE TO BE THE RIGHT MOST
OUTLIERS. DUE TO THE COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. STY 18W IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AT A PEAK OF 135 KNOTS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS STY 18W MOVES INTO HIGHER
LATITUDES .
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE WEST
OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE GFDN AND EGRR TRACKS. AT TAU 120, STY 18W
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A RE-CURVE TOWARDS OKINAWA, JAPAN, IN RESPONSE
TO ANOTHER DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 96. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
MODELS, THEY ALL NOW SHOW THIS RECURVE MOTION AT TAU 120. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

as i was saying yesterday, seems an EWRC beginning to take place??

yeah, really looks its undergoing Eye Wall Replacement Cycle, its very evident in microwave, and is about to develop a huge eye,, here's the link

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2012_18W/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_07.html

[euro6208]

raw power....

HA Super typhoon, the JTWC just could not resist



T7.5/7.5

i don't see any estimates showing T7.5....but who knows, dvorak likes to underestimate so probrably this is valid...

[dexterlabio]

developing a big eye? you mean like 2000's Jelawat?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMwWy4q-qXs[/youtube]

[mrbagyo]

ahh. I don't think it would be as large as the jelawat of 2000 but once the EWRC finished, we might see an eye like sanba 's prior to its okinawa landfall...hehe

[mrbagyo]

very small eye, with concentric eyewall

[mrbagyo]

super typhoon no more-- down to 125 knots

WTPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.4N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.6N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.9N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.0N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.0N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.2N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 25.5N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 128.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER
TYPHOON STATUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND
250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

I like how inconsistent Euro model has become.

[phwxenthusiast]

EWRC complete?? already showing signs of improvement... Raw T back to 6.9

[mrbagyo]

EWRC complete?? already showing signs of improvement... Raw T back to 6.9

looks like your right, its re-strengthening

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 SEP 2012 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 14:33:06 N Lon : 128:07:06 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 927.6mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.8 6.8


Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Chickenzilla]

Jelawat is an impressive typhoon.

[mrbagyo]

whoo! it completes the eyewall replacement, and the eye expand as what I've predicted

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 914.3mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.2 7.2

[Meow]

The JMA’s second violent typhoon in 2012.



TY 1217 (JELAWAT)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 24 September 2012

<Analyses at 24/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N14°35'(14.6°)
E128°05'(128.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N16°30'(16.5°)
E126°50'(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N18°20'(18.3°)
E125°20'(125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°00'(20.0°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)