ATL: ISAAC - Models

[ROCK]

if that SW is not as pronounced and the ridge is underestimated I wouldnt doubt the recent EURO solution. you get this in the open GOM as toasty as it is....and the aloft conditions are right someone is going to have a really bad day. remember the EURO at 200+ is la la land at this point....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

no one wants anything in the GOM right now....period....

Agreed! However, I'm sure no one wants this anywhere near them.

true, I will rephrase.....SSTs will not be a problem in the GOM....

[LaBreeze]

Rock, what are some of the SST's in the GOM at this time? Just wondering.

[ROCK]

Rock, what are some of the SST's in the GOM at this time? Just wondering.

really warm..28C- 29C probably even some 30Cs somewhere in there....

[pcolaman]

if that SW is not as pronounced and the ridge is underestimated I wouldnt doubt the recent EURO solution. you get this in the open GOM as toasty as it is....and the aloft conditions are right someone is going to have a really bad day. remember the EURO at 200+ is la la land at this point....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

no one wants anything in the GOM right now....period....

Agreed on that ! Could be very nasty !

[Kingarabian]

Rock, what are some of the SST's in the GOM at this time? Just wondering.

TC potential is Cat.5 easy if upper levels are favorable. Hence why the Euro deepens it so quickly.

[LaBreeze]

Rock, what are some of the SST's in the GOM at this time? Just wondering.

really warm..28C- 29C probably even some 30Cs somewhere in there....

Yes, I figured they were probably way up there. Not a good situation should anything enter the GOM.

[Bocadude85]

You can tell models trending west....perhaps it should continue...only time will tell. I can't help but notice models shifting west while it moves slightly south of west...

moves slightly south of west? if anything its jogging to the NW right now.. but in general its heading west

[cpdaman]

You can tell models trending west....perhaps it should continue...only time will tell. I can't help but notice models shifting west while it moves slightly south of west...

moves slightly south of west? if anything its jogging to the NW right now.. but in general its heading west

i would think as this huge circulation gets better oragnized there will be deviations and wobbles as the center relocates a bit within the larger mass that is organizing. but who knows, guess it's wait and see a bit.

also i'm not sure if the euro is a great tropical model at least when the system is initialized so weak in the beginning, i could be off on this one but i'm not to gung ho on euro's modeled track of tropical systems until the euro initiates with at least a decent tropical storm to start with.

[SeminoleWind]

You can tell models trending west....perhaps it should continue...only time will tell. I can't help but notice models shifting west while it moves slightly south of west...

moves slightly south of west? if anything its jogging to the NW right now.. but in general its heading west

Yeah i myself am a little skeptical of the Latest Euro in the short term as it seems to be moving NW, even if its just a "jog" it will be strengthening in the short term, as it seems it will be a TS anytime and any deviation in short term track will have implications after it passes the islands, JMO

[Bocadude85]

You can tell models trending west....perhaps it should continue...only time will tell. I can't help but notice models shifting west while it moves slightly south of west...

moves slightly south of west? if anything its jogging to the NW right now.. but in general its heading west

i would think as this huge circulation gets better oragnized there will be deviations and wobbles as the center relocates a bit within the larger mass that is organizing. but who knows, guess it's wait and see a bit.

also i'm not sure if the euro is a great tropical model at least when the system is initialized so weak in the beginning, i could be off on this one but i'm not to gung ho on euro's modeled track of tropical systems until the euro initiates with at least a decent tropical storm to start with.

The Euro is a great tropical model.. only issue I have with todays Euro is how long it takes this to get into the gulf.

[Blown Away]

If the Euro is right then Isaac will not be getting any stronger over the next 5 days b/c that 12z run kept it very weak until it nears Jamaica. Interested to see if the NHC lowers their intensity forecast based on this run. JMHO

[tolakram]

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viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113425&hilit=

[cpdaman]

The Euro is a great tropical model.. only issue I have with todays Euro is how long it takes this to get into the gulf.

does the euro even show this as a tropical storm @72 hrs?

i think euro is good when it initializes a hurricane or decent tropical storm but i think it may be further west because it keeps it so weak thru 144hours. i mean at 144 hours it has this at like 1002 or so mb...not happening...w/ regard to intensity of this storm that model is on an island to itself.

[ROCK]

If the Euro is right then Isaac will not be getting any stronger over the next 5 days b/c that 12z run kept it very weak until it nears Jamaica. Interested to see if the NHC lowers their intensity forecast based on this run. JMHO

well its a fully exposed LLC now, so I would say its fairly weak....1005 MB...attm...


up coming is the 18Z model package....got the 18Z GFS, 0Z GFS and then the holier than thou 0Z EURO!! throw in some NOGAPS and CMC runs also...

[Blown Away]

The Euro is a great tropical model.. only issue I have with todays Euro is how long it takes this to get into the gulf.

does the euro even show this as a tropical storm @72 hrs?

i think euro is good when it initializes a hurricane or decent tropical storm but i think it may be further west because it keeps it so weak thru 144hours

No, doesn't look like a storm until about 120 hours, weak=west. JMHO

[Bocadude85]

Has the 12z GFDL and HWRF come out yet?

[Weatherfreak000]

Wxman stated the NW jog is related to the system stripping off convection and is temporary. However, go look at nhc charts overall since yesterday it has lost a degree and now we are seeing west shifts, could be related IMO.

[JPmia]

FWIW.. GFDL 12z:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

HWRF is further south of this and just exiting the coast:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

I do know this.. this year these models have trended too far right of consensus and actual tracks .. at least that is my observation so far this season.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFLTropics]

If the Euro is right then Isaac will not be getting any stronger over the next 5 days b/c that 12z run kept it very weak until it nears Jamaica. Interested to see if the NHC lowers their intensity forecast based on this run. JMHO

well its a fully exposed LLC now, so I would say its fairly weak....1005 MB...attm...


up coming is the 18Z model package....got the 18Z GFS, 0Z GFS and then the holier than thou 0Z EURO!! throw in some NOGAPS and CMC runs also...

The fight is on between the EURO and the GFS!!! We have some very interesting days ahead. This is better than watching Lesnar vs. Triple H at Summerslam.

SFT

[Javlin]

Has the 12z GFDL and HWRF come out yet?

The HWRF is further W at the end of the run.