ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Mouton]

Mouton, you are just to my east over on the coast at Amelia Island. How are the winds currently out there? Here at my house about 15 miles miles inland from you, I am already receiving winds gusting to near 30mph.

I don't have a wind gauge and my home is somewhat in a hollow so we are not experiencing winds of that velocity here. By my reckoning our winds are about 15MPH with an occasonal gust to 20mph at ground level albeit it may be about 5mph more at the tree tops.

Looking at the flags directly on the beach on the camera at Sandy Bottoms, I would say the winds are 10mph higher than here.

The weather station on the pier at Fernandina shows winds of 16kts with gust to 25kts...barometer down to 29.88.

Thanks. I am not sure I will be able to get out there to the beach yet. I kinow that there will be a very good chance DOT may close off the bridges crossing the Intracoastal going out there late today and tonight. I will update as much as posssible what's happening here at home, but your reports out at Amelia will really be good Mouton if I am not able to get out there or to Neptune Beach or Jax beach
late today.

We just had a nice gust here....FBeach reports a gust to 20kts which I don't doubt.
Regardless the static wind is still about 15mph at my home. Barometer steady around 29.88. Bright overcast. I've seen worse wind conditions at Sawgrass when the tournement was played in March.

[northjaxpro]

I just had a gust to 32 mph in a quick burst of rain as a spiral band just moved over a few moments ago.

[Peach]

Any news more recent than NHC? I live about forty miles from the coast, the St. Mary's river about 15 miles north. I have read 3-6 inches rain, moving at 10 mph.

[Dave]

Tower tops from KJAX radar - Jacksonvile FL @ 1239 pm edt

[Dave]

Rainbands on shore from Beryl as well @ 1243 pm edt

[ronjon]

Boy the NHC really is holding tight to the ECM on the overland forecast track. Nearly all models take it eventually into the FL big bend. From the 11 am Disc:

THERE IS STILL A
LARGE DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR WEST BERYL WILL
MOVE BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF SHOWS BERYL TURNING MORE
SHARPLY NORTHWARD...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
TAKES THE CYCLONE WELL INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD BUT STILL LIES
TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
ECMWF.

[Batt2fd]

[northjaxpro]

Looking at radar and satellite imagery, the convection has almost wrapped around the entire circulation. I have to believe that Beryl has completed the transition to tropical. Whether NHC classifies it as that is another matter.

Beryl looks on its satellite and radar presentation the best I have seen her in its lifespan. Meanwhile, Mayport had reported a gust to 36 mph within the past hour.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ronjon]

Buoy 40 nm east-northeast of St Aug.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41012&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

[ocala]

Hard to tell the motion. Maybe just a little south of due west?

[cycloneye]

Any news more recent than NHC? I live about forty miles from the coast, the St. Mary's river about 15 miles north. I have read 3-6 inches rain, moving at 10 mph.

First welcome to Storm2k.The next advisory by NHC will be at 2 PM EDT so stay tuned and stay safe there.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like its starting to pull the center back up under the convection the south.

[Peach]

She looks like she'll pass us late tonight, the St. Mary's is low right now, and a few miles from my home. The little St. Mary's is up the street.

[northjaxpro]

[Aric Dunn]

Hard to tell the motion. Maybe just a little south of due west?

yeah wobbles but this close to the coast makes little difference unless it magically bombs out over night.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Visible Loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[Dave]

(1:13 PM) Local Storm Report by NWS JAX: 42 ENE ST. Augustine BE [Amz472 Co, XX] buoy reports TROPICAL STORM at 01:08 PM EDT -- winds 37 miles per hour gusting to 56 miles per hour

[ronjon]

The southern COC looks to be contracting and perhaps becoming the dominant center now. Heavy convection to the east is getting pulled in. Just judging based on high res VIS SAT and RAD, i'd say the rather large COC will run into the coast near Palm Coast/St Augustine. Landfall 8 to 10 pm?

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20120527&endTime=-1&duration=3

[cycloneye]

The next mission that will go later this afternoon (2:45 PM EDT departs) will be very interesting.

[ronjon]

Looks fully tropical now - I'd expect NHC to call it such at the 5 PM advisory.