ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[FireBird]

Wow! This TD has been so unpredictable!
Real wavering with this guy.
Interested to see what the next best track will show.
I was thinking earlier today that it might've pulled together and spared me sone rain.
But with so much convection through to the coast, and with some impressive strong convection lying to my east, it looks like I'm gonna have to pull out the paddles.
It floods in my street after 30mins of heavy rain, so I guess I'll be putting my plans into place from tonight after all.
Our local Met office has indicated possibility of heavy winds, rain, and seas.
I hope people are paying attention....

[Zeno8]

I agree WNW and Ernesto at 5pm

Doubt it will be upgraded, plane is not finding TS winds. Lots of outflow boundaries forming on NW-N side now. Not good for inflow toward the center. Looked more impressive 24 hrs ago. It may continue to struggle until it enters the Caribbean.

Actually, they did find 40 knot winds, but the question is were there enough of them?

wxman57 is going by looks

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think the storm is trying to rush to get to a moister environment.

[Texashawk]

I really think with this storm... not sure why, but I think by the end everybody who ended up "not in play" is going to be very grateful.

This is not an official forecast, just a gut feeling.

So much for him opening up into a wave right guys?


Also, whatever happened to the East Coast storm thing?


Gotta love the early days, when everyone thinks they are in play

[Dave]

[cycloneye]

No VDM yet?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 021925
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 25 20120802
191700 1232N 05530W 9769 00281 0088 +240 +187 185022 022 018 001 00
191730 1230N 05530W 9771 00279 0088 +240 +188 193020 020 005 004 03
191800 1229N 05529W 9767 00285 0088 +246 +189 189023 025 /// /// 03
191830 1230N 05527W 9774 00279 0088 +253 +190 184026 027 004 003 03
191900 1231N 05526W 9768 00283 0089 +240 +192 179025 026 004 001 03
191930 1232N 05525W 9769 00281 0087 +243 +194 178024 025 011 003 00
192000 1234N 05524W 9768 00283 0087 +244 +195 179026 027 015 002 00
192030 1235N 05523W 9772 00278 0087 +240 +195 179027 028 016 002 03
192100 1237N 05522W 9770 00279 0086 +238 +196 179027 028 017 001 03
192130 1239N 05521W 9766 00283 0086 +237 +196 179027 028 015 001 00
192200 1240N 05521W 9769 00279 0086 +242 +196 176028 029 015 001 00
192230 1242N 05520W 9772 00278 0085 +242 +196 173028 029 009 004 00
192300 1243N 05519W 9772 00278 0084 +249 +195 172030 030 013 002 00
192330 1245N 05518W 9777 00272 0085 +243 +196 172028 028 015 002 00
192400 1246N 05517W 9768 00280 0085 +243 +197 172030 031 016 001 00
192430 1248N 05516W 9769 00279 0085 +243 +197 172032 033 020 002 00
192500 1249N 05515W 9770 00278 0085 +244 +197 170034 034 021 002 00
192530 1251N 05515W 9777 00273 0084 +245 +198 170033 034 022 003 00
192600 1252N 05514W 9772 00278 0085 +243 +198 169034 034 021 003 00
192630 1254N 05513W 9767 00281 0084 +244 +198 168034 035 018 002 00
$$
;

[Dave]

None yet Cycloneye

[Dave]

[RL3AO]

43kt FL. That should be enough.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 021935
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 26 20120802
192700 1256N 05512W 9772 00278 0085 +243 +198 168031 033 020 002 00
192730 1257N 05511W 9770 00279 0085 +245 +198 168031 032 021 002 00
192800 1259N 05510W 9772 00278 0085 +245 +199 165033 034 023 001 00
192830 1300N 05509W 9771 00280 0085 +246 +199 160032 033 024 002 00
192900 1302N 05508W 9771 00280 0086 +249 +199 156034 034 024 001 00
192930 1303N 05508W 9769 00280 0086 +249 +199 154034 035 025 001 00
193000 1305N 05507W 9773 00276 0085 +250 +200 155037 039 029 000 03
193030 1306N 05506W 9772 00278 0085 +250 +200 155036 036 025 002 00
193100 1308N 05505W 9765 00283 0085 +247 +201 152036 037 027 003 00
193130 1309N 05504W 9771 00281 0088 +245 +201 150038 039 027 002 00
193200 1311N 05503W 9772 00281 0089 +246 +201 147038 038 024 004 00
193230 1313N 05502W 9772 00281 0090 +246 +201 145037 038 027 002 00
193300 1314N 05502W 9768 00286 0090 +247 +202 146037 039 027 003 00
193330 1316N 05501W 9772 00280 0090 +246 +202 146037 038 026 003 00
193400 1317N 05500W 9770 00284 0091 +246 +202 145037 037 026 002 03
193430 1319N 05459W 9774 00281 0091 +243 +203 137034 036 023 006 00
193500 1320N 05458W 9763 00287 0092 +225 +203 132039 041 027 005 03
193530 1322N 05457W 9775 00278 0092 +210 +200 133042 043 030 010 00
193600 1323N 05456W 9777 00276 0092 +209 +196 133042 043 032 007 00
193630 1325N 05456W 9766 00286 0092 +217 +190 134041 042 028 005 03
$$
;

Better sign we have Ernesto?

[cycloneye]

43kts at flight level found.

043 032 007 00

[Weatherfreak000]

When you consider how fast he's moving you have to wonder how this will effect track....GFDL has a weakness basically right over the NGOM at that timeframe.

[galvestontx]

doesnt Texas have a high over it or something that is gonna block/push anything that comes close to it to the east-lou and south-mex? Like a shield.

[Texashawk]

Yes... but unfortunately it is forecast to move towards NM/CO by the time Ernesto is close enough to feel the effects. Might still affect it, but maybe not as much. Also, there's supposed to be a fairly strong ridge over the SE US, perhaps keeping the EGOM out of play. We shall see.

doesnt Texas have a high over it or something that is gonna block/push anything that comes close to it to the east-lou and south-mex? Like a shield.

[RL3AO]

52kt FL. No doubts now.

[Texashawk]

Flagged or clean? If clean...

52kt FL. No doubts now.

[stormhunter7]

*recon is at 1kft on this mission run in TD5... so flight level winds are pretty close to being a TS.

[Sanibel]

Ka-ching! (Sorry for the non-met one-line response)


(Lesser SST's)

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 021945
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20120802
193700 1326N 05455W 9771 00283 0093 +218 +185 133043 044 034 002 00
193730 1328N 05454W 9770 00284 0095 +214 +181 133042 045 033 008 00
193800 1329N 05453W 9772 00284 0098 +207 +179 134046 047 038 014 00
193830 1330N 05452W 9770 00286 0099 +201 +176 135044 047 042 016 00
193900 1332N 05451W 9773 00284 0101 +201 +173 138046 047 037 019 03
193930 1333N 05451W 9774 00285 0103 +196 +170 136046 048 044 019 00
194000 1335N 05450W 9766 00291 0102 +196 +167 142047 049 044 016 00
194030 1336N 05449W 9771 00289 0103 +202 +164 145047 048 038 008 00
194100 1338N 05448W 9769 00290 0100 +220 +162 143051 052 037 006 00
194130 1339N 05447W 9771 00289 0102 +213 +161 145047 050 036 007 00
194200 1341N 05446W 9772 00290 0102 +214 +162 145046 047 037 003 00
194230 1342N 05446W 9771 00289 0099 +222 +163 150047 049 033 005 03
194300 1344N 05445W 9774 00286 0098 +227 +165 150049 051 036 003 03
194330 1345N 05444W 9768 00291 0101 +218 +167 151045 047 039 006 03
194400 1347N 05443W 9770 00291 0104 +204 +169 152047 049 036 006 00
194430 1349N 05442W 9770 00292 0102 +226 +170 152043 046 034 004 00
194500 1350N 05441W 9771 00291 0102 +227 +171 152044 047 036 003 03
194530 1352N 05440W 9774 00289 0103 +227 +173 151042 043 029 003 00
194600 1353N 05439W 9771 00294 0103 +231 +175 152043 045 031 002 03
194630 1355N 05439W 9772 00292 0106 +215 +177 151040 041 031 008 00
$$
;

52 kt FL, 44 kt SFMR. Say hello to Ernesto.