ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[deltadog03]

recon looks like it shows a N or NNW jog from last VDM...maybe it begins?

[chris_fit]

Live loop, zoom 2, speed up for full effect: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Appears, if that's the center that is visible, that north or slightly NW movement has begun. Next recon pass will tell the story.


http://imageshack.us/a/img42/5843/zzsandy.jpg

I see what you see at the end of that loop - Lets see what the next recon will say

[HurrMark]

Yes, the Cuban landall at that strength was not expected - as the pro mets have said, it was possibly a Cat 3 at the time...

P.S. Ozonepete, not to undo your title but I'm guessing that this will not happen and will remain offshore - if it were August that'd be another issue but not now...

Actually, I would think that a late OCT storm would be more likely than an AUG storm to go onshore if the synoptics are right...you don't see negative tilt troughs digging this deep in the middle of summer...usually it's more zonal and you would get a gradual turn to the north and northeast.

[jlauderdal]

recon looks like it shows a N or NNW jog from last VDM...maybe it begins?

and lets hope the NAM doesn't verify

[Frank2]

What's your guess based on?

ozonepete,

The GFS shows Sandy being absorbed by a large cutoff low forecast to drop through the Appalachians and pinwheels it around in the Atlantic before making landfall on the US/Canadian border - seems like it's just too late in the season for a landfalling US hurricane, especially in NYC, but never say never...

P.S. Just my guess...

Frank

[Aric Dunn]

recon looks like it shows a N or NNW jog from last VDM...maybe it begins?

it does now its ahead of the nhc forecast. not supposed to turn nnw till around 00z.

[KWT]

As others have said, this sorta track is probably more likely deeper in the season than earlier, simply because the troughs have that bit more depth to them. You only need a deep negativly titled trough and your going to get a decent NW hook. I admit that its close to the point where that sort of track becomes tougher to pull off, but its certainly still possible in late October, even if it is generally a rather uncommon set-up.

[chris_fit]

recon looks like it shows a N or NNW jog from last VDM...maybe it begins?

it does now its ahead of the nhc forecast. not supposed to turn nnw till around 00z.

True, but the other half of that story is that the storm is more north and east than originally forecast at this point.

[ozonepete]

What's your guess based on?

ozonepete,

The GFS shows Sandy being absorbed by a large cutoff low forecast to drop through the Appalachians and pinwheels it around in the Atlantic before making landfall on the US/Canadian border - to seem like it's just too late in the season for a landfalling US hurricane, especially in NYC, but never say never...

Frank

But the GFS is gradually moving toward the euro (Delmarava coast) and cmc (New York) solutions. By the way, it is NOT forecast to be absorbed - rather it will be energized by upper level divergence just east of the nose of the approaching vigorous 500mb shortwave trough. This upper divergence has energized many a fading hurricane and given it a new life as a hybrid, e.g. Hurricane Hazel in October of 1954 which went fully extratropical while coming ashore at the NC/SC border and then caused hurricane winds all the way to Canada.
The consensus of the models, which the NHC almost always uses, has Sandy transitioning to a hybrid storm between the VA Capes and NYC so it's a post-tropical storm at landfall. But notice they have winds of 70 mph still associated with it as it comes near the Jersey shore. It will not make much difference whether it's tropical or extra-tropical or what it's called to anyone on the Jersey shore trying to deal with a 10 foot storm surge and 70 mph winds.

[ozonepete]

Here's an excerpt from the latest Discussion:

THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THIS INTERACTION AND WHERE THE NORTHWEST TURN WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND GFDL MODELS SHOW A QUICKER URN...BRINGING THE CENTER INLAND BY DAY 5. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE GRADUAL TURN WITH THE CENTER STILL OFFSHORE AT 120 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND LIES ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY...IT IS LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT DESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH SANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THESE PROBABILITIES WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 22.4N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 24.4N 75.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 26.2N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 27.4N 76.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 36.0N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 39.5N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

[brunota2003]

Well, per the 3 recon fixes, Sandy is moving at about 3 degrees.

[Aric Dunn]

The way the left side of the system is beginning to drop to the SW ( the not near the center well west) and the oblong look of the circ maybe be indications that the turn is starting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[ozonepete]

The way the left side of the system is beginning to drop to the SW ( the not near the center well west) and the oblong look of the circ maybe be indications that the turn is starting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I'm pretty convinced. Appears to be NNW now though we will need a few more hours to smooth out the track.

Also clearly intensifying again.

[Cyclenall]

Wow, does anyone realize how much rain must be falling on Haiti and surrounding areas right now? Its just training strong convection non-stop over them. Then you have the huge bursts of convection on the west side of the hurricane revamping its engine. Fascinating situation and will only get more so.

Yeah it looks like we are going to have a multi-billion dollar disaster here and a deadly one at that. Looks like Sandy is breaking the 2012 spell.

Reports from Cuban radio indicates that the damage in Santiago de Cuba is as bad as feared, collapsed buildings and others about to fail, no electricity, trees down, etc. I think my name is as good as retired

Wow, thanks for that report. Its what I suspected considering the way it came in. I just realized that your name is Sandy while Sandy hit Cuba...what a coincidence.

What's your guess based on?

ozonepete,

The GFS shows Sandy being absorbed by a large cutoff low forecast to drop through the Appalachians and pinwheels it around in the Atlantic before making landfall on the US/Canadian border - seems like it's just too late in the season for a landfalling US hurricane, especially in NYC, but never say never...

P.S. Just my guess...

Frank

None of this makes sense when we're talking about warm seclusion scenarios. The GFS doesn't show that and Sandy is more likely to get caught NW now than earlier in the year (August).

[Aric Dunn]

The way the left side of the system is beginning to drop to the SW ( the not near the center well west) and the oblong look of the circ maybe be indications that the turn is starting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I'm pretty convinced. Appears to be NNW now though we will need a few more hours to smooth out the track.

Also clearly intensifying again.

larger view shows the oblong shape and the cloud mass shifting westward.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

[HurrMark]

What's your guess based on?

ozonepete,

The GFS shows Sandy being absorbed by a large cutoff low forecast to drop through the Appalachians and pinwheels it around in the Atlantic before making landfall on the US/Canadian border - seems like it's just too late in the season for a landfalling US hurricane, especially in NYC, but never say never...

P.S. Just my guess...

Frank

NWS offices like BOX has not been gung-ho on this one as well...Matt Noyes on NECN explained this well...this would be sch a rare event that it's almost like "seeing is believing". But a 1:100 or 1:250 year event does not mean it will never happen...we have seen plenty of those types of events in recent years.

[HURAKAN]

http://m24digital.com/2012/10/25/el-hur ... -por-hora/

Weather station at Gran Piedra, Cuba, reported gusts to 152 mph, according to José Rubiera, Cuba's Chief Meteorologist

[Aric Dunn]

http://m24digital.com/2012/10/25/el-huracan-sandy-llego-a-cuba-con-vientos-de-casi-180-kilometros-por-hora/

Weather station at Gran Piedra, Cuba, reported gusts to 152 mph, according to José Rubiera, Cuba's Chief Meteorologist

whoa... pretty sure they will upgrade to cat 3 in post analysis.

[CrazyC83]

http://m24digital.com/2012/10/25/el-huracan-sandy-llego-a-cuba-con-vientos-de-casi-180-kilometros-por-hora/

Weather station at Gran Piedra, Cuba, reported gusts to 152 mph, according to José Rubiera, Cuba's Chief Meteorologist

whoa... pretty sure they will upgrade to cat 3 in post analysis.

That's at 4,000 feet above sea level though, so it would not be representative of surface winds. The key for the landfall intensity is the Holguin data and the sustaining period of a measurement of 96 mph (84 kt) sustained. If 1-min sustained, after land interaction, I would say 95 kt for landfall. If 10-min, I would say 105 kt.

[cycloneye]

http://m24digital.com/2012/10/25/el-huracan-sandy-llego-a-cuba-con-vientos-de-casi-180-kilometros-por-hora/

Weather station at Gran Piedra, Cuba, reported gusts to 152 mph, according to José Rubiera, Cuba's Chief Meteorologist

whoa... pretty sure they will upgrade to cat 3 in post analysis.

As I said earlier today on this thread,NOAA folks for sure will go down there to evaluate the damage and see if there is data stored of windspeeds.