ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Nederlander]

Well I hope this one bombs out (for fun's sake) and then buries itself in an unpopulated part of Mexico.. Just looking at the shear forecast is scary enough.. I'd be a little surprised if "he" doesnt bomb out in the 72-96 hr range.. That being said, lol things change morning to evening so tomorrow I may be a naysayer but for now, I suspect we may have a major on our hands in the near future..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

Sorry wxman...five days off.

BEST TRACK: AL05, 128N 556W, 40kts, 1008mb, TS ERNESTO

[cycloneye]

Flagged or clean? If clean...

52kt FL. No doubts now.

Is a valid reading.

[CrazyC83]

Data supports a 45 kt intensity now.

[stormhunter7]

I should add too that the winds that are high are well to the NE of coc. Could be more from the high pressure to the north, then actually system. But there is no doubt TS winds at surface now well to the ENE of the Low.

*TS winds start about 50 miles to ENE of COC and go as far as 120 miles to the NE of COC*

[Texashawk]

Flagged or clean? If clean...

52kt FL. No doubts now.

Is a valid reading.

OK. I don't have access to the NHC site currently (at work) and didn't get to see the raw OBS data. Just wondering... such intensity was just... unexpected from all we've heard so far. Thanks!

[Hurricaneman]

Data supports a 45 kt intensity now.

I believe this revelation is going to change the model projections, this could be a potent tropical storm when it enters the Carribean

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurrMark]

I agree WNW and Ernesto at 5pm

Doubt it will be upgraded, plane is not finding TS winds. Lots of outflow boundaries forming on NW-N side now. Not good for inflow toward the center. Looked more impressive 24 hrs ago. It may continue to struggle until it enters the Caribbean.

If this stays a TD for a little more than 5 days, your prediction might still come true

I don't see this thing becoming a TS anytime soon (unofficial opinion). It definitely has a circulation, but perhaps the GFS/Euro were onto something keeping it weak for a while...

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 021955
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 28 20120802
194700 1356N 05438W 9759 00306 0106 +211 +178 138039 041 034 007 03
194730 1358N 05437W 9766 00296 0103 +229 +178 134038 038 022 003 00
194800 1359N 05436W 9768 00297 0106 +235 +178 136036 037 027 001 00
194830 1401N 05435W 9771 00295 0105 +236 +180 136036 037 024 003 00
194900 1402N 05434W 9772 00294 0105 +236 +182 136037 038 026 002 00
194930 1404N 05433W 9770 00295 0105 +239 +185 138038 039 024 004 03
195000 1405N 05432W 9765 00300 0106 +237 +188 138035 037 025 004 00
195030 1407N 05432W 9770 00295 0104 +238 +190 136036 037 020 004 03
195100 1409N 05433W 9772 00294 0105 +239 +192 130035 036 /// /// 03
195130 1408N 05434W 9779 00289 0106 +239 +194 131032 033 026 001 03
195200 1408N 05436W 9770 00295 0105 +237 +196 133033 034 026 002 03
195230 1408N 05438W 9770 00295 0105 +234 +197 132032 033 026 001 00
195300 1407N 05440W 9770 00294 0103 +237 +198 132033 034 025 002 00
195330 1407N 05442W 9772 00294 0103 +237 +198 131035 036 028 002 03
195400 1407N 05444W 9772 00291 0102 +238 +198 130037 039 028 003 00
195430 1407N 05446W 9769 00294 0102 +239 +198 130038 039 028 005 00
195500 1406N 05448W 9772 00291 0101 +236 +198 130036 036 029 001 00
195530 1406N 05450W 9770 00290 0099 +240 +198 131037 038 028 003 00
195600 1406N 05452W 9772 00287 0098 +240 +199 128038 039 030 003 00
195630 1405N 05454W 9768 00291 0098 +240 +199 126036 037 029 003 00
$$
;

Someone else please take over.

[JamesCaneTracker]

I agree WNW and Ernesto at 5pm

Doubt it will be upgraded, plane is not finding TS winds. Lots of outflow boundaries forming on NW-N side now. Not good for inflow toward the center. Looked more impressive 24 hrs ago. It may continue to struggle until it enters the Caribbean.

If this stays a TD for a little more than 5 days, your prediction might still come true

I don't see this thing becoming a TS anytime soon (unofficial opinion). It definitely has a circulation, but perhaps the GFS/Euro were onto something keeping it weak for a while...

Based on Best Track it's already been upgraded... Just waiting for the Official word from the NHC at 5!

BEST TRACK: AL05, 128N 556W, 40kts, 1008mb, TS ERNESTO

[TCmet]

Flagged or clean? If clean...

52kt FL. No doubts now.

194100 1338N 05448W 9769 00290 0100 +220 +162 143051 052 037 006 00

It's clean. TS Ernesto should be coming at 5pm.

[Blinhart]

So my question is will they pull the trigger at 5pm or wait until the 8pm to make sure that this system stays together for the next few hours, after what happened to it last night???

I know the Recon supports an immediate upgrade, but will they trust one pass of Recon after what happened last night.

[Nederlander]

Are the models even initializing correctly? Have a hard time believing the lack of strengthening. Shear forecasts and SSTs look epic for development. Anything I'm missing?

[Ikester]

ERNESTO!

AL, 05, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 128N, 556W, 40, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 30, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, M,

[Dave]

[PTrackerLA]

Are the models even initializing correctly? Have a hard time believing the lack of strengthening. Shear forecasts and SSTs look epic for development. Anything I'm missing?

It's confusing to me as well. Also interesting that the vast majority of 12z GFS ensembles keep TD 5 in BOC.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2012/al052012/track_gfs/aal05_2012080212_track_gfs.png

[Nederlander]

With it approaching the islands, I'm guessing they will go ahead and pull the trigger at the 5pm advisory. No reason not to imo, just because it weakened last night. Recon shows TS, alas it's Ernesto...

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022005
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 29 20120802
195700 1405N 05456W 9771 00289 0098 +238 +200 130034 037 025 004 00
195730 1405N 05458W 9770 00289 0098 +237 +200 131036 038 029 002 00
195800 1405N 05459W 9766 00291 0097 +235 +200 129038 041 029 002 00
195830 1404N 05501W 9772 00286 0096 +236 +200 130038 039 028 002 03
195900 1404N 05503W 9771 00286 0096 +233 +199 131039 039 030 004 00
195930 1404N 05505W 9770 00285 0096 +232 +199 132039 041 030 003 03
200000 1403N 05507W 9771 00285 0095 +231 +199 130041 043 031 003 03
200030 1403N 05509W 9768 00289 0095 +231 +198 129041 042 030 007 03
200100 1403N 05511W 9770 00283 0091 +232 +197 133044 046 030 007 03
200130 1403N 05513W 9773 00279 0089 +233 +196 132048 049 035 003 03
200200 1402N 05515W 9767 00284 0089 +229 +196 133045 046 036 004 03
200230 1402N 05517W 9770 00279 0087 +227 +195 131044 045 036 004 03
200300 1402N 05519W 9770 00279 0087 +225 +195 128046 047 034 005 00
200330 1401N 05521W 9773 00275 0086 +227 +194 127049 050 039 002 03
200400 1401N 05523W 9768 00278 0084 +228 +194 127050 051 040 003 03
200430 1401N 05525W 9772 00274 0083 +232 +193 126051 051 040 004 03
200500 1400N 05527W 9764 00280 0082 +231 +192 122052 054 039 002 03
200530 1400N 05529W 9777 00269 0080 +234 +192 119052 053 039 002 03
200600 1400N 05531W 9769 00274 0079 +233 +192 115050 053 041 002 03
200630 1400N 05533W 9769 00270 0076 +237 +193 113052 054 040 006 03
$$

54 kts flt lvl; 41 kts sfmr

[Hurricane Alexis]

According to tropicalatlantic.com, it's a tropical storm with winds of about 45 mph.

[JamesCaneTracker]

I guess alot of you missed the Best Track which upgrades it to a Tropical Storm... Yes ok it's not official word from the NHC but giving the Recon findings it's a very good indication it will be upgraded at 5!