ATL: ISAAC - Models

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: ISSAC - Models

#1041 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:21 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Isaac, not "Issac"

Would be a major coup if CMC won this war. I never put much stock this far out in 6z/18z gfs.



welcome back to the EURO bench....kept your seat warm along with IVANs....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1042 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:25 pm

12z Euro looks like an Ivan track...plenty of time to watch
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1043 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:30 pm

yeah...lots of time still especially if it slows down as progged.....I was about to conceded FL panhandle to EC but not after this last EURO run....need a few more....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1044 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:30 pm

Euro showing this.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif
Last edited by tolakram on Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Do not directly link to images, copy to an image hosting site first
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1045 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:33 pm

It's GFS time...Once again appears to have initialized pretty good...

SFT
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1046 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:34 pm

Which probably means it will be 500 miles east or west of there in 6-7 days. IMO :lol:

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#1047 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:34 pm

looking forward to this GFS run
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#1048 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:39 pm

If Issac opens up into a wave in the Caribbean as the Euro shows than I argree it would go further west. But I doubt that happens.
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Re:

#1049 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:42 pm

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:If Issac opens up into a wave in the Caribbean as the Euro shows than I argree it would go further west. But I doubt that happens.



can you show me where? because I have been watching these run and never saw the EURO open it up....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1050 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:43 pm

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M



42hrs....
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#1051 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:43 pm

18z GFS 48 hours:
Image
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Re: Re:

#1052 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:45 pm

ROCK wrote:
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:If Issac opens up into a wave in the Caribbean as the Euro shows than I argree it would go further west. But I doubt that happens.



can you show me where? because I have been watching these run and never saw the EURO open it up....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=072hr
If not open than very weak.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1053 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:47 pm

I don't know...Looking at GFS so far I think it is coming in a little to the right of the previous run. It definitely looks more organized than the EURO run and more to the North as well.

SFT
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Re: Re:

#1054 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:47 pm

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:
ROCK wrote:
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:If Issac opens up into a wave in the Caribbean as the Euro shows than I argree it would go further west. But I doubt that happens.



can you show me where? because I have been watching these run and never saw the EURO open it up....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=072hr
If not open than very weak.




don't look at this resolution for EURO runs.....

here:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html
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#1055 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:48 pm

Starting to deepen @ 60 HRs looks like
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#1056 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:49 pm

18z GFS 60hrs:
Image
More N then it was in the 12z GFS.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#1057 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:50 pm

ROCK wrote:
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:If Issac opens up into a wave in the Caribbean as the Euro shows than I argree it would go further west. But I doubt that happens.


can you show me where? because I have been watching these run and never saw the EURO open it up....


Euro is very weak through 48 hours (1007 mb), then gets totally disrupted by Hispaniola, and around 120 hours it begins the transformation. If Isaac becomes a strong TS or hurricane within 72 hours, thats not what the 12z Euro was showing.
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#1058 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:50 pm

18z GFS

+72

Image
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#1059 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:55 pm

18z GFS 81hrs:
Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1060 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:58 pm

It would appear that the EURO is on its own with the GOM solution and that the GFS is going to hold serve with a more northern track...At least that's what it appears right now. Still think Isaac may try to squeeze through the Windward Passage...who knows.

SFT
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