ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

For those who missed the updated Best Track upgrading to Ernesto,here it is.

AL, 05, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 128N, 556W, 40, 1008, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Dean4Storms]

They'll upgrade it, you don't decide that based on how it looked the night before.

[ROCK]

I saw some 1007mb obs come in but it looked like they stuck with 1008mb.....that pressure should be falling soon IMO.....

[Hurricane Alexis]

Are the models even initializing correctly? Have a hard time believing the lack of strengthening. Shear forecasts and SSTs look epic for development. Anything I'm missing?

Maybe in the next model runs they will have better input data since 5 got upgraded to TS Ernesto.

[Dean4Storms]

With Recon finding a much stronger system I suspect these models will shift a bit more north once they are fed the complete synoptics. We could see some stair stepping along the ridge.

[Weatherfreak000]

So my question is will they pull the trigger at 5pm or wait until the 8pm to make sure that this system stays together for the next few hours, after what happened to it last night???

I know the Recon supports an immediate upgrade, but will they trust one pass of Recon after what happened last night.

There is no evidence to suggest Ernesto is going anywhere. They will upgrade timely, and if you ask me us LA folk need to watch him very closely because he can definitely become a threat for us late next week.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022015
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 30 20120802
200700 1359N 05536W 9767 00273 0076 +235 +194 112051 053 041 003 03
200730 1359N 05538W 9767 00273 0075 +237 +195 111052 052 043 002 03
200800 1359N 05540W 9772 00267 0075 +237 +196 109051 053 041 003 03
200830 1358N 05542W 9775 00266 0075 +236 +197 109051 052 043 003 00
200900 1358N 05544W 9780 00262 0076 +225 +198 110048 051 042 008 03
200930 1358N 05546W 9766 00272 0073 +231 +197 111049 052 042 004 00
201000 1357N 05548W 9772 00266 0072 +238 +195 107049 052 044 009 03
201030 1357N 05550W 9765 00269 0072 +228 +194 105048 049 038 007 00
201100 1357N 05552W 9774 00261 0070 +225 +194 104053 058 042 006 03
201130 1357N 05554W 9770 00263 0070 +218 +193 101059 059 044 006 00
201200 1356N 05556W 9772 00261 0069 +227 +191 097054 055 044 003 03
201230 1356N 05558W 9772 00259 0066 +234 +189 094051 053 047 002 03
201300 1356N 05600W 9768 00263 0066 +235 +189 090050 051 039 005 03
201330 1355N 05602W 9770 00261 0066 +231 +190 084046 049 036 004 00
201400 1355N 05604W 9769 00263 0066 +238 +190 085045 046 034 005 03
201430 1355N 05606W 9763 00269 0067 +236 +192 083043 045 037 003 03
201500 1354N 05608W 9774 00257 0066 +240 +193 081045 046 037 002 00
201530 1354N 05610W 9771 00261 0065 +240 +195 082046 047 038 004 00
201600 1354N 05612W 9765 00267 0067 +233 +197 077041 044 033 002 00
201630 1353N 05614W 9770 00261 0068 +210 +199 077040 041 033 005 00
$$
;


59 kts Fl; 47 kts sfmr

[JamesCaneTracker]

I saw some 1007mb obs come in but it looked like they stuck with 1008mb.....that pressure should be falling soon IMO.....

We are still waiting on a VDM... The Pressure is still falling so they haven't reached the center yet.

[PTrackerLA]

Well now I have to ask...hurricane forecast again at 5pm? Based off the SHPS guidance, latest HWRF and shear forecast I would think that would give them enough confidence to show a hurricane in western caribbean again but that's just my amateur opinion.

[Zanthe]

So my question is will they pull the trigger at 5pm or wait until the 8pm to make sure that this system stays together for the next few hours, after what happened to it last night???

I know the Recon supports an immediate upgrade, but will they trust one pass of Recon after what happened last night.

There is no evidence to suggest Ernesto is going anywhere. They will upgrade timely, and if you ask me us LA folk need to watch him very closely because he can definitely become a threat for us late next week.

It'll be upgraded at five. Probably 45MPH winds, 1008 or 1007 pressure, and likely forecasted to become a hurricane again.

[JamesCaneTracker]

1006.5 mb is the lowest pressure and 59kts is the strongest flight level winds...

201130 1357N 05554W 9770 00263 0070 +218 +193 101059 059 044 006 00

201530 1354N 05610W 9771 00261 0065 +240 +195 082046 047 038 004 00

[Dave]

[ConvergenceZone]

Well now I have to ask...hurricane forecast again at 5pm? Based off the SHPS guidance, latest HWRF and shear forecast I would think that would give them enough confidence to show a hurricane in western caribbean again but that's just my amateur opinion.

I think they will definately go hurricane in the w carib at 5 Pm, Given that the
latest projection 5 days out is 70 mph and the fact that it's developed quicker into a
tropical storm than was forecasted, I'd be shocked if they dont' take it to hurricane.

[JPmia]

With Recon finding a much stronger system I suspect these models will shift a bit more north once they are fed the complete synoptics. We could see some stair stepping along the ridge.

I agree.. perhaps those earlier CMC (Canadian) runs weren't so off base. Even thogh shear values are projected to be low in the east/central Carib.. we still have our friend Hispainola to get around.. we shall see how Ernesto interacts with that island.

[SunnyThoughts]

Well now I have to ask...hurricane forecast again at 5pm? Based off the SHPS guidance, latest HWRF and shear forecast I would think that would give them enough confidence to show a hurricane in western caribbean again but that's just my amateur opinion.

I agree with you PT. With the shear forecast alone, I don't see how this doesn't become a cane in the near future. May flux up and down a bit beforehand, but those shear tendencies are just scary.

[cycloneye]

Wow,recon keeps finding more stronger winds. These are clean.

59 kts Flight Level, 47 kts sfmr

[Annie Oakley]

Wish I could help but I am at work........

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022026
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 31 20120802
201700 1353N 05616W 9769 00264 0067 +229 +197 076038 039 031 002 00
201730 1353N 05618W 9774 00258 0067 +223 +195 073036 037 032 004 00
201800 1353N 05620W 9766 00266 0067 +233 +194 064034 036 028 005 00
201830 1352N 05622W 9772 00258 0068 +217 +193 048035 036 024 003 00
201900 1352N 05624W 9772 00259 0068 +231 +192 047034 035 022 003 00
201930 1352N 05626W 9774 00259 0069 +231 +192 042034 036 026 004 00
202000 1351N 05628W 9769 00266 0069 +235 +192 043036 036 026 002 00
202030 1351N 05630W 9771 00264 0070 +236 +192 044036 037 024 002 03
202100 1351N 05632W 9769 00267 0071 +235 +194 044034 036 023 002 00
202130 1350N 05634W 9775 00261 0071 +235 +195 045033 033 023 002 00
202200 1350N 05636W 9774 00263 0072 +236 +197 045033 033 021 004 00
202230 1350N 05638W 9768 00269 0073 +233 +198 050032 032 024 004 00
202300 1350N 05640W 9768 00269 0072 +240 +198 051033 034 027 002 03
202330 1349N 05642W 9774 00264 0073 +242 +199 050033 034 028 002 00
202400 1349N 05644W 9767 00270 0072 +243 +200 049033 034 026 001 03
202430 1349N 05646W 9772 00267 0072 +241 +202 050035 036 025 003 00
202500 1348N 05648W 9772 00267 0074 +236 +203 045035 036 027 003 03
202530 1348N 05650W 9768 00270 0073 +241 +204 039033 036 025 001 03
202600 1347N 05652W 9756 00280 0072 +241 +204 024029 032 /// /// 03
202630 1345N 05652W 9778 00259 0072 +245 +205 028030 031 025 001 00
$$
;

[Dave]

Wish I could help but I am at work........

There will be many more missions and we'll need the help on each one of them.

[Weatherfreak000]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Shear maps are definitely looking a bit suspect....wind shear appears to be moderate and this has kept Ernesto in check, but I noticed something I found interesting. If you observe the shear tendency maps the "Graveyard" definitely isn't much of a graveyard right now, and certainly not something I would expect to see during a developing El Nino.

Once Ernesto gets to the Central Caribbean you just have to believe it'll intensify, too much evidence to suggest it. I'ma go on a limb here and call it: Ernesto will be our first major of the season.


Of course this is just an opinion, see S2K Disclaimer for official information, and where to find it.