ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurrMark]

No offense to those in Cuba, but for US purposes, Cuba may indeed be the saving grace if this track holds. I don't see this maintaining hurricane intensity unless it really gets strong in the Caribbean. It is very difficult to get a major hurricane to strike South Florida from that angle...although if the eventual landfall is the Panhandle, that could be a totally different story, since there will be a lot more time for intensification.

[otowntiger]

It's ISAAC, not ISSAC. Sorry to seem picky, but we've got it misspelled in all of the thread headings.

So it looks like the NHC has backed WAY off of the intensification. If what they've forecast track and intensity wise verifies this thing could still affect FL but would not be a disaster. Again this is just going off of what their current track and intensity forecasts are. If it crosses Cuba as a minimal hurricane it will not emerge as one and will have little time to regenerate. I know things obviously can and do change but that seems to be the current predicted scenario. Much better than it could have been.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman76]

northjaxpro, thanks. Hey I am no expert by any means and i could be wrong too. Thank you for correcting me i appreciate it. Personally I still like the East coast of Florida. Keep in mind both ECMWF and GFS are already at least 4 if not more MB to weak according to recon. I'll feel a lot better once the recon data gets in the models and the shortwave that picks this up, or not, gets onshore by 00z fri.

I plan to be here often, or at least till the wife kicks me off the computer because she wants attention!

[WeatherOrKnot]

Have any of the models had recon data incorporated into them yet or is that still to come?

[wyq614]

No offense to those in Cuba, but for US purposes, Cuba may indeed be the saving grace if this track holds. I don't see this maintaining hurricane intensity unless it really gets strong in the Caribbean. It is very difficult to get a major hurricane to strike South Florida from that angle...although if the eventual landfall is the Panhandle, that could be a totally different story, since there will be a lot more time for intensification.

Agree, especially if, according to the track of NHC, the storm will be affected by both Mount Maestra and Mount Escambray after making landfall in Cuba.

[Blown Away]

Still moving WNW to NW IMO.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Shuriken]

If it crosses Cuba as a minimal hurricane it will not emerge as one and will have little time to regenerate.

There are many examples of hurricanes and TS intensifying quickly in the Gulf after getting beat up over Cuba.

Cat-4 Hurricane Frederic comes to mind; it spent much of the time as a depression over the Greater Antilles:

[fci]

I am finding it funny reading people criticize the South Florida media, and the media in general; for hyping Isaac (nice that I have seen Issac and even Isacc in this thread so far ).
They are doing their job to keep people informed.
Now, posters say that they are hyping too much.
If they only covered Isaac in the weather segment or made a brief mention of the storm in the opening, people here would be criticizing the media for not paying enough attention to the storm.
Either way, people complain!!!
Bottom line is that Isaac is 4-6 days away from South Florida IF he even comes here and the media is informing people of the possibility.
And excuse me, but with the eyes of the country on Tampa next week for the Republican National Convention can you blame the national media for jumping on the possibility of a disrupted convention?
4 years ago the convention in Minneapolis was interrupted by a Gulf Coast threat and this time, potentially; there could be a Hurricane or Tropical Storm where the national media will be headquartered next week.
Take it easy folks!
My $.02 and back to mostly lurking.........

[Gustywind]

Convection really appears to be on the increase this evening. Those in the islands need to keep an eye out, you know how these intensity forecasts can be.

Thanks to you , you're right, yeah how versatile these intensity can be! We remembered Cleo and many more who explosed quickly in less than 12h ....
Let's hope that Isaac stays a weak TS . We continue to keep your informed in the islands.

[Ivanhater]

Enough with the side stories including media hype and others. Keep it on track.

[Wthrman13]

Well you are right they are primitive equation models not specifically baroclinic or barotropic but one of the assumptions often used in these models to make the governing equations simpler to solve is to assume the atmosphere is barotropic. At least that was the case with the NGM and MRF when I was in school. And of course each model has it's own physics package to handle different situations which is probably a good thesis paper.

Yes, some models *do* make the barotropic approximation. I said as much in my previous post. But, these are rarely used for NWP anymore (except perhaps the LBAR for TC track prediction, but even that is only for historical, statistical purposes). Incidentally, you're incorrect: the NGM and MRF (older version of the GFS) were both also primitive equation models, and neither made the barotropic approximation. It occurred to me that perhaps you are referring to the hydrostatic approximation rather than to the barotropic approximation. Most large-scale NWP models do indeed make the former approximation, but certainly not the latter.

[ozonepete]

Hello everyone, I have been following Storm 2K every year since Isabel hit us here in Virginia and just today decided to join. All of you have been so informative for us here for years and look forward to another great storm year! Hello Isaac and welcome to the Atlantic can not wait to see what you have in store for us on land....

Welcome! Great to see you!

[ozonepete]

Well you are right they are primitive equation models not specifically baroclinic or barotropic but one of the assumptions often used in these models to make the governing equations simpler to solve is to assume the atmosphere is barotropic. At least that was the case with the NGM and MRF when I was in school. And of course each model has it's own physics package to handle different situations which is probably a good thesis paper.

Yes, some models *do* make the barotropic approximation. I said as much in my previous post. But, these are rarely used for NWP anymore (except perhaps the LBAR for TC track prediction, but even that is only for historical, statistical purposes). Incidentally, you're incorrect: the NGM and MRF (older version of the GFS) were both also primitive equation models, and neither made the barotropic approximation. It occurred to me that perhaps you are referring to the hydrostatic approximation rather than to the barotropic approximation. Most large-scale NWP models do indeed make the former approximation, but certainly not the latter.

Wxman13, thanks for trying to keep the science correct here. I know you are absolutely correct about the models.

[Wthrman13]

I welcome a theory which can rationally explain what else could result in, say, convection in nearly all parts of Ernesto puffing up simultaneously while in the southwestern Caribbean (I remember this quite distinctly) at one point, only to then stall after several more sat-frames. It was a very weird phenomena, but not necessarily one you'd pay attention to if you weren't actively looking for it. Dry air, shear and water temps varied throughout the system, and could not reasonably be the cause of such system-wide simultaneous behavior on a per sub-hour basis. (I've previously discounted diurnals in this particular Ernesto example, because it occurred at the wrong time of day).

Here's another example of the same phenomena with TD9 today: note re-energized convection sprouting simultaneously in all parts of the storm.

On a more general note, there are numerous reasons why these convective bursts in developing TCs might be inhibited, and surface conditions are only one factor. Your posts make it sound like the tropical meteorology community only pays attention to surface conditions. They don't. There are numerous studies on the effects of gravity waves on convection/etc, much more than "scattered".

I wrote: "(There have been scattered studies of high altitude import, but not enough for a general knowledge to percolate throughout the community of tropical devotees.) "

...given that I almost never see it discussed within these forums, I'll stand by that statement.

I wonder how much of the change between those two frames is due to the changing sun angle making the overshooting tops of the convection stand out more clearly. In any case, I'm not disputing that there could be system-wide changes in convective activity that we don't completely understand, I'm just not convinced of your explanation.

MODS: sorry for getting too off topic in my posts in this thread; I just find it easier to address topics related to general meteorological questions when they come up and not necessarily make a new thread to address them, but maybe I should do that in the future...

[mrbagyo]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif


accdg to euro

[kristina]

What is the % chance this storm hits the east coast? NC, or VA

[AdvAutoBob]

Have any of the models had recon data incorporated into them yet or is that still to come?

Not till later... think it's the 00Z runs that will be the first to have recon data

Somebody else correct me if I'm wrong

[floridasun78]

Just received a breaking news alert on my iPhone from WPBF Channel 25 in West Palm Beach... "Tropical Storm Isaac could hit Florida as hurricane by Monday".

I find this type of reporting somewhat misleading. True, it could hit as a hurricane by Monday. But what happens when it doesn't and everyone says that the media cried wolf. Next time when there is a real threat no one buys into it and it costs lives.

Heck, we COULD get hit by a meteorite by Monday. I think the media should be a little more discerning when dispensing information because it can do a disservice down the road during future storms.

But, hey...It's exactly what I expected them to do.

SFT

Sorry for the soapbox rant...Back to your normal wobble watching...

news live for this kind event their trying better and other local channel

[tolakram]

Moderation Reminder

This is directed at everyone, not a particular post.

We are going to be extremely busy over the next week, and when busy we ask that you refrain from posting one line remarks or off topic comments. Posts may be removed without warning. Thanks for your cooperation.

[floridasun78]

Jim Cantore think isaac could be getting stronger faster he say center now in storm area like before shear was affecting it now shear is less