ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[SouthFLTropics]

After Jeanne I am hesitant to ever say SE Florida is in the clear until the storm is either well west of us or well North of us. As long is it is off to the SE of us we are not in the clear. Personally I'd feel much better if the long range models were pointed at us right now. Normally that is the safest place to be because they are bound to change. I wouldn't be surprised to see the models start to shift more North in the coming days depending on how strong Ernesto stays.

SFT

[cycloneye]

Folks,is scary to see this graphic of the very warm TCHP subsurface waters in Western Caribbean and Ernesto will arrive to that area.

[Houstonia]

Jeff Lindner (Harris County Flood Control District):

Based on data from a recon aircraft the tropical depression east of the Windward Islands is being upgraded to a tropical storm.

Discussion:

Satellite images show a slight improvement in the overall organization of the system today, but the system still lacks well defined deep convection near the center. Recon aircraft found 45kt winds with the SFMR equipment and thus the main reasoning for the upgrade. With that said, the outflow has improved to the north and while dry air is still getting entrained into the circulation it appears to not be as severe as yesterday. Ernesto continues to move quickly toward the W at near 20mph.

Track:

There has been no change in the forecast track reasoning with the system embedded south of strong mid Atlantic deep layer ridging resulting in a fairly quick W to WNW motion for the next 5 days. This will take Ernesto across the Windward Islands on Friday and through much of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea this weekend into the western Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica on Monday. At that point a weakness in between the sub-tropical ridge over the Atlantic and the retreating ridge over the southern plains/TX will begin to allow the system to slow and turn toward the WNW or NW as it nears the Yucatan. Global model track guidance is in fair to good agreement through 72 hours and this is an above average forecast confidence track.

Intensity:

It appears that Ernesto is wining out over the dry air and shear and at least holding its own in the face of moderately favorable conditions. Would like to see more deep convection near the center, but that will come in time as the inner core begins to consolidate. Models are still at odds and many lose the system/weaken it into an open wave in the Caribbean Sea, but thus far the system has overcome the negative factors and is gradually becoming better organized. Feel slow intensification is possible through the eastern and central Caribbean which is usually an unfavorable region for TC’s. Once in the western Caribbean Sea, conditions appear very favorable for intensification with a building 200mb anticyclone over the system and this feature looks to move with the system into the Gulf of Mexico. SHIPS intensity guidance brings Ernesto now to a 80kt (90mph) hurricane as it nears the Yucatan coast. It should be noted that both the EURO and GFS continue to show a weak system in the western Caribbean Sea.

It is becoming increasingly possible that a hurricane will be moving toward/into the southern or SE Gulf of Mexico middle to late next week.

Now would be a good time to remind all residents to check those hurricane kits and go over your hurricane preparation plans.

[leanne_uk]

Hoping to get word from my mother in law in Grenada shortly on what is happening today in Grenada.

I will update if and when I can on news.

[SunnyThoughts]

Cycloneye, very dangerous implications indeed. You stay safe as you are right in the middle of those bath waters yourself.

[JPmia]

Anyone know if they plan to use the unmanned drones .. Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Missions .. for Ernesto? I can't tell from their website. It will be interesting to see what kind of data is collected from these missions.

http://espo.nasa.gov/missions/hs3

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmmm, I'm wondering why the EURO and GFS aren't showing a strong system
in the western carib? Are they seeing something that we aren't??

[cycloneye]

Hmmm, I'm wondering why the EURO and GFS aren't showing a strong system
in the western carib? Are they seeing something that we aren't??

Now that is a Tropical Storm,let's see how they start their runs at 00z.

[Hurricaneman]

one thing I noticed with the models is that they're poor at best with intensity

[tolakram]

Latest

[MGC]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

With Ernesto reaching TD and TS intensity quicker than forecast, I am skeptical of the global models forecast that Ernesto will not reach an environment condusive for futher intensification until the storm reaches the Western Caribbean. Looking at the water vapor loop of the Caribbean.....it appears that a UL ridge is in place. Yes, there is a bit of dry air, but as I have observed many times in the past, tropical cyclones passing over warm waters are not adversely affected to a great extent by surrounding dry air. NHC keeps shifting the track to the left....kind of reminds me of Ivan back in 2004....track kept shifting west and west. Only question I have is will a weakness develope that allows Ernesto to turn northward into the GOM or will the cyclone continue on a westward track and crash into the Yucatan? Remember, the NHC has little skill in forecasting intensity changes....and, I think Ernesto could challenge their skill in the coming days........MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Stormcenter]

Hostile conditions maybe? IMO

Hmmm, I'm wondering why the EURO and GFS aren't showing a strong system
in the western carib? Are they seeing something that we aren't??

[hurricanes1234]

Take a look at the SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico on the satellite image - look at all that firebrick red!

[meteortheologist]

Pray all stays safe in this storm! Hopefully it will steer clear of us here on the Ms coast

i agree! not sure why the lord sees fit to keep sending these systems towards our side of the border but ours is not to question!

Last Category 5 was Hurricane Felix in 2007, one is coming up very soon based on statistics.

this is what ive been saying for weeks

[ConvergenceZone]

Hostile conditions maybe? IMO

Hmmm, I'm wondering why the EURO and GFS aren't showing a strong system
in the western carib? Are they seeing something that we aren't??

Yea you could be right.......And to the models credit, I think sometimes people get TO fixated on the hot sea surface temperatures and forgot about all the other conditions that are necessary for a cane to go major.....I've been guilty of this myself...

[tolakram]

Please remember to keep discussion in this thread, the models thread, to model runs and directly related conversation about them. It's not fun to scroll through 10 posts about where someone thinks it's going. Thanks.

[meteortheologist]

Hostile conditions maybe? IMO

Hmmm, I'm wondering why the EURO and GFS aren't showing a strong system
in the western carib? Are they seeing something that we aren't??

Yea you could be right.......And to the models credit, I think sometimes people get TO fixated on the hot sea surface temperatures and forgot about all the other conditions that are necessary for a cane to go major.....I've been guilty of this myself...

explain

[Bocadude85]

Is it too soon to say that SE Fl is in the clear?

Id say there is a better then not chance of Ernesto passing safley to our south and west. Just my opinion though.

[Blinhart]

But the question is what are the hostile conditions that the MODELS are seeing that none of us (not even the NHC) are seeing???

Right now all we see in the foreseeable future are high SSTs and light shear, so what is it????????

[Janie2006]

Well, one thing that concerns me is the persistent troughiness over the northern Gulf Coast over the last several weeks. That area has been "in between" the monster ridges for a good part of the summer. It's far too early to tell anything, but it's a definite pattern.....in between the Atlantic high and the semi-permanent SE US high. Time will tell.

Edit: that's a south-central to central US high, not southeast. Gah.