ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, conditions currently are only marginally conducive at best with the shear still going on across the Northern GOM. Now, we have another ULL in the NW GOM which formed seemingly out of nowhere during the past 6-12 hours.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks NE to me as well of where it was pronged to be.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

If shear would let up this would have a chance.Like NHC said the center is becoming much better defined as apparent on visible this morning.Just cant get anything to wrap north and west yet. Surprised they didn't mention anything about the shear. Is it supposed to calm down any today?

The ECMWF did a nice job a few days ago of forecasting the ULL in the NW GOM to create the SW shear across the northern gulf.
Now the same model is forecasting it to slide to the SW towards southern TX/northern MX away from 96L over the next few days, to create a little better environment for it, still not the best but definetely better, starting tomorrow into at least Tuesday.

Didnt remember that with all the crazy model runs.
Also once this trough lifts out should settle down as well.

[Portastorm]

Wouldn't it be something if the GFS verified?

You have to credit them for at least being the most consistent so far and not really flip flopping.

FWIW, the Canadian (CMC/GGEM) has been just as consistent with its WGOM solution.

[caneman]

Wouldn't it be something if the GFS verified?

You have to credit them for at least being the most consistent so far and not really flip flopping.

FWIW, the Canadian (CMC/GGEM) has been just as consistent with its WGOM solution.

They had a pretty big shift overnight from Tx. to La. though. Still too early to tell but looks to be moving at a decent clip now due North.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It sure looks pretty far north and east already but well see how the models do today.

The more north it goes then Texas is out of it,or the high blocks it and turns that way?

From the latest I've seen makes a run at the LA coast and gets turned away towards TX.

[cycloneye]

Todays mission is a go with the plane departing at 12:15 PM EDT.

[robbielyn]

Finally our baby in the womb has finally appeared. Shes a go now. I am guessing that the broad low has shrunk rather than moved eastward and is consolidating into an llc looks to be moving northward towards ms/al. Its where aric said to look out for it to develop yesterday.

Im not a met.

[NDG]

This is where I'm thinking the COC is.

[HouTXmetro]

They had a pretty big shift overnight from Tx. to La. though. Still too early to tell but looks to be moving at a decent clip now due North.

I somewhat disagree, as someone said in the discussion page, the broad area of Low Pressure probably shrank and that's where the LLC is taking place. Moving slowly North, but north non the less as was forecast by the models.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Wouldn't it be something if the GFS verified?

You have to credit them for at least being the most consistent so far and not really flip flopping.

FWIW, the Canadian (CMC/GGEM) has been just as consistent with its WGOM solution.

Don't forget the euro as well

[HouTXmetro]

FWIW, the Canadian (CMC/GGEM) has been just as consistent with its WGOM solution.

They had a pretty big shift overnight from Tx. to La. though. Still too early to tell but looks to be moving at a decent clip now due North.[/quote]

LOL, not to pester you cane man... but upper TX coast to Morgan City is not a big shift. give or take it's no more than 125-175 miles.

[Air Force Met]

Doesn't look to be that much shear. Seems to be aiding right now.

As we all talked about yesterday...it should take one more DMAX to get this going and that was it. If a plane was in there now this would be a TS.

But more to your point: You can't look at a satellite picture and say there's not that much shear. That is a classic Gulf sheared system. This is what I was attempting to tell some of the posters yesterday....that shear would be an issue. NOT enough to kill it...or even keep it from developing...but all this talk of surprising everyone by how fast it got to major hurricane status is nonsense.

Again...look at the satellite presentation. All of the convection is on the east. 10-15 kt winds are cutting right through the circulation.

In essence...it is a CLASSIC early Gulf storm. It's a poster child.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

They had a pretty big shift overnight from Tx. to La. though. Still too early to tell but looks to be moving at a decent clip now due North.

I somewhat disagree, as someone said in the discussion page, the broad area of Low Pressure probably shrank and that's where the LLC is taking place. Moving slowly North, but north non the less as was forecast by the models.

And also being the cmc did shift some around central la coast landfall is not for 4 or 5 days. So it will slow down as the trough lifts out and high builds in.

[Portastorm]

True that!

And let me be clear, I'm of the "I have no clue where this is going" camp. The GFS could indeed score a huge coup here if 96L ends up Florida-bound. Can't rule it out whatsoever.

[tolakram]

Let's not fill the model thread with this back and forth please. You can come to the s2k irc chatroom if you want to chat about it.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

FWIW, the Canadian (CMC/GGEM) has been just as consistent with its WGOM solution.

They had a pretty big shift overnight from Tx. to La. though. Still too early to tell but looks to be moving at a decent clip now due North.

LOL, not to pester you cane man... but upper TX coast to Morgan City is not a big shift. give or take it's no more than 125-175 miles. [/quote]

That's what I've been trying to say. 4 days out that is not that big of shift

Sorry mark just saw your post

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Watching to see if they renumber it.

AL, 96, 2012062312, , BEST, 0, 254N, 876W, 30, 1002, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[mutley]

At this point, it seems the storm is headed northward and head faking both northeast and west, giving forecasters and computers some anxiety. But are air patterns moving fast enough that the northeast/west directional choice will be settled as the day goes by today?

[caneman]

FWIW, the Canadian (CMC/GGEM) has been just as consistent with its WGOM solution.

They had a pretty big shift overnight from Tx. to La. though. Still too early to tell but looks to be moving at a decent clip now due North.

LOL, not to pester you cane man... but upper TX coast to Morgan City is not a big shift. give or take it's no more than 125-175 miles.

That's what I've been trying to say. 4 days out that is not that big of shift[/quote]

All entitled to our opinion but I would say that the ULL seems to be steering it now and seems to have picked up speed. IMHO. ANd, I'll leave it at that for now.