ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

What are conditions like in the Cyclone graveyard otherwise known as the Eastern Caribbean (I apologize for not doing my homework but I have been busy getting back to college this week)?

[SouthDadeFish]

Wherever you are GCANE, here is your hot tower:



Nice structure still on the 37 GHz Color:

[fci]

Hi, I am new to this forum. I live in south Florida and I want to know when tracking a hurricane how many days in advance is the most reliable and does anyone know how long before the storm approaches do county officials do mandatory evacuations.
Thanks

First off, welcome to Storm2K!!
I also live down here and would suggest that you have some provisions in advance of the season like propane gas, batteries, flash lights, etc; things that don't really go bad.
For mandatory evacuations, Hurricane Warnings are the trigger to the best of my knowledge and the size of the evacuation zone is predicated on the anticipated strength of the storm.
Don't put shutters up until there is a Hurricane Warning.
Rely on the National Hurricane Center for official guidance and read this forum for thoughts on what might happen. Don't take action based on what you read here or on any forum!
Look for the thoughts of the experts and read the thoughts of others just for giggles.
Experts are Pro Mets and some of the Mods.
If you are confused and want to ask any questions in private (afraid that what you ask might be silly, which NO question is); feel free to PM me. I have lived down here for many years, am far from an alarmist and can help guide you or direct you to someone who can help answer a question.

[SouthDadeFish]

Sweet, here is an even better 37 GHz image courtesy of Windsat:



Notice the intense hot tower seen in the bright pink. That is a lot of ice....

[Blown Away]

When does the NHC acknowledge WNW movement, been happening for hours. The NE part of circulation is really starting to moisten up! Isaac looks his best so far! JMHO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[SouthDadeFish]

When does the NHC acknowledge WNW movement, been happening for hours. The NE part of circulation is really starting to moisten up! Isaac looks his best so far! JMHO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

The two recon fixes showed a W motion with a just a very slight northerly component.

[Hammy]

I set my mouse to the north of the storm with the IR loop, and it looks like outflow is starting to develop as the high cloud elements that were moving a tad south earlier are moving more to the east by the end

[Gustywind]

WEATHER

Orange cyclone vigilance for the storm Isaac

franceantilles.fr 22.08.2012

At 5PM local center was located about 810 km east of Guadeloupe. Depression is now classified as tropical storm. The storm tropical Isaac will cross the Caribbean arc at the level of Guadeloupe, on Wednesday evening.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 183571.php


First thundery showers arrived as early as tonight and continue into Wednesday. They intensify and become more sustainable in the night of Wednesday to Thursday and Thursday day. Accumulations of rainfall may exceed 100 mm / 24 hours at many points, as well Wednesday as Thursday.
Tonight and tomorrow, the wind blows moderately northeast to North but temporarily boosts grain stormy passage. The wind became more sustained after the passage of the storm center on the night of Wednesday to Thursday. He then swung South-South-East and blow between around 60 km/h of average with gusts in the order of 80-100 km/h.
The sea is widening gradually tomorrow during the day. Average lows are around 2 m 50 Wednesday evening, then 3 m 3 m 50 Thursday morning with maximum 6 m waves in a swell northeast then East. Cross-swell phenomena then make the chaotic sea. In Caribbean, hollow of 2 m are expected Thursday in a main Southeast swell.
Heavy rains expected may cause disturbances: flooding, overflow of streams and gullies, and to make difficult traffic conditions.

[KBBOCA]

Hi, I am new to this forum. I live in south Florida and I want to know when tracking a hurricane how many days in advance is the most reliable and does anyone know how long before the storm approaches do county officials do mandatory evacuations.
Thanks

Hope you enjoy S2K It's a great place to learn about hurricanes!

The NHC 3 Day track is pretty reliable. Anything further out (longer time frame) than that can change a lot.
It's a good idea to watch the trend of the tracks now and make sure you have a clear idea of your preparations, but try not to get too anxious at this stage. The track may change a lot and there is much that can change the intensity and potential severity too.

As always the National Hurricane Center is the best source of information. There are also some good websites that will help you discover if you're in an evacuation zone. I don't have the links handy, but Google your town and "evacuation zones" and you'll probably find the info. Or try Myflorida.gov or the Florida Emergency Management site:
http://floridadisaster.org/EMTOOLS/Seve ... icanes.htm
http://floridadisaster.org/EMTOOLS/Seve ... 20Zone.pdf

I'm just an amateur, but I hope these links help.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, I noticed that the NHC has reduced the forecasted strength during the last 2 discussions. I"m assuming that's because of the anticipated land interaction?

[Blown Away]

Joe Bastardi / Weatherbell's thoughts on Isaac.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Joe Bastardi / Weatherbell's thoughts on Isaac.

Man they are low budget there at Weather bell lol

[wxman76]

The only reason i saw for NHC lowering the strength was the models showed it. Maybe they have reasons other than that but it wasn't in the discussion. i personally think that will come back and bite them. Isaac shows no signs of weakening tonight. Those islands aren't big enough to disrupt a storm this size much if at all. i wouldn't have upped the ante either. i would have left it alone unless it was a model trend not a flip flop. But that's me I dont change my forecast until it is busting. I don't flip flop. Learned that from my days At Accuweather, and being yelled at by joe bastardi! But i have to thank JB because I learned a lot from him, and still do today. Besides were both Italians what can go wrong!

[BatzVI]

So based on that Weatherbell pic, does anyone really think there is a possibility of that top line being a reality....the one going between St. Croix and St. Thomas....

[tolakram]

Latest image with shear overlay. Convection appears to have blown off the center again.

[JPmia]

Joe Bastardi / Weatherbell's thoughts on Isaac.

Seems like the western side of the swath might be about right based on latest trends of models

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Latest RBtop loop

[ozonepete]

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/4756/cvwave.jpg (see image above in Blown Away post)
Joe Bastardi / Weatherbell's thoughts on Isaac.

Wow that's hard to read. But since he's making such a threatening forecast people just need to know that "JB" is not a university trained hurricane specialist and has no official credentials for forecasting them. That is just one person's opinion. You should trust the NHC for official forecasts.

[ozonepete]

Latest image with shear overlay. Convection appears to have blown off the center again.

Mark, a lot of the CIMSS charts, like this one and their convergence/divergence charts, are skewed off the mark by dozens of miles due to problems with computer graphics and how the grids are set up.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even with the forecasted strength of Issac to be less than what was anticipated earlier. I don't feel like I can be happy about it.

On the one hand, It's fantastic news for the US, because the anticipated land interaction will cause Issac to be not NEARLY as strong as it could have been, but on the other hand, the islands will be the sacraficial lamb.....

So great news for the USA states, but bad news for the islands....