ATL: ISAAC - Models

[tolakram]

Global model roundup

96 hours







144 hours

[BobHarlem]

I meant in that they're in agreement in not going north of Hispaniola and puerto rico, except a few models.

Irene had pretty good agreement with the models of it going north of Hispanola or Puerto Rico either at this point, and didn't until it got into the Caribbean, although it was still more of an Invest at the time.

[jlauderdal]

I didnt see the new GFDL posted. Has browardcounty landfall in 5 days, much faster than NHC forecast:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL120.gif

looks like dade county, no landfall for broward

[Blown Away]

I didnt see the new GFDL posted. Has browardcounty landfall in 5 days, much faster than NHC forecast:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL120.gif

looks like dade county, no landfall for broward

How can you tell its all under a bunch of black circles.

[SouthFloridawx]

I didnt see the new GFDL posted. Has browardcounty landfall in 5 days, much faster than NHC forecast:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL120.gif

looks like dade county, no landfall for broward

That's worse for Broward.

[Evil Jeremy]

I didnt see the new GFDL posted. Has browardcounty landfall in 5 days, much faster than NHC forecast:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL120.gif

looks like dade county, no landfall for broward

How can you tell its all under a bunch of black circles.

From this. Its broward. Migt even be WPB.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif

[cycloneye]

00z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 220041
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC WED AUG 22 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC (AL092012) 20120822 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120822  0000   120822  1200   120823  0000   120823  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.5N  54.8W   16.4N  57.9W   17.3N  61.3W   18.0N  65.3W
BAMD    15.5N  54.8W   15.9N  57.4W   16.4N  59.8W   17.2N  62.3W
BAMM    15.5N  54.8W   16.1N  57.7W   16.7N  60.7W   17.4N  63.8W
LBAR    15.5N  54.8W   15.8N  57.9W   16.1N  61.1W   16.4N  64.5W
SHIP        35KTS          43KTS          54KTS          64KTS
DSHP        35KTS          43KTS          54KTS          64KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120824  0000   120825  0000   120826  0000   120827  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.4N  69.1W   18.1N  75.2W   17.7N  77.4W   20.4N  76.9W
BAMD    18.0N  64.5W   20.1N  68.3W   23.0N  72.0W   26.7N  75.7W
BAMM    18.2N  66.9W   19.7N  72.4W   21.1N  76.5W   22.7N  78.7W
LBAR    16.9N  67.7W   18.2N  72.9W   20.3N  76.5W   23.2N  79.0W
SHIP        74KTS          91KTS          96KTS         101KTS
DSHP        74KTS          91KTS          71KTS          38KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.5N LONCUR =  54.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  15.1N LONM12 =  52.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  15.3N LONM24 =  48.5W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   40NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[wxwatcher1999]

whats the latest euro run look like?

[stormhunter7]

00z Tropical Suite... a east shift? A SE US threat on this run.

[Bocadude85]

I didnt see the new GFDL posted. Has browardcounty landfall in 5 days, much faster than NHC forecast:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL120.gif

looks like dade county, no landfall for broward

How can you tell its all under a bunch of black circles.

Its west of Grand Bahama Island which would be Palm Beach County...

[GTStorm]

00z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 220041
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC WED AUG 22 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC (AL092012) 20120822 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120822  0000   120822  1200   120823  0000   120823  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.5N  54.8W   16.4N  57.9W   17.3N  61.3W   18.0N  65.3W
BAMD    15.5N  54.8W   15.9N  57.4W   16.4N  59.8W   17.2N  62.3W
BAMM    15.5N  54.8W   16.1N  57.7W   16.7N  60.7W   17.4N  63.8W
LBAR    15.5N  54.8W   15.8N  57.9W   16.1N  61.1W   16.4N  64.5W
SHIP        35KTS          43KTS          54KTS          64KTS
DSHP        35KTS          43KTS          54KTS          64KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120824  0000   120825  0000   120826  0000   120827  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.4N  69.1W   18.1N  75.2W   17.7N  77.4W   20.4N  76.9W
BAMD    18.0N  64.5W   20.1N  68.3W   23.0N  72.0W   26.7N  75.7W
BAMM    18.2N  66.9W   19.7N  72.4W   21.1N  76.5W   22.7N  78.7W
LBAR    16.9N  67.7W   18.2N  72.9W   20.3N  76.5W   23.2N  79.0W
SHIP        74KTS          91KTS          96KTS         101KTS
DSHP        74KTS          91KTS          71KTS          38KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.5N LONCUR =  54.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  15.1N LONM12 =  52.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  15.3N LONM24 =  48.5W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   40NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


What was the max SHIP intensity on the last run? was it higher than 101 kts?

[jlauderdal]

I didnt see the new GFDL posted. Has browardcounty landfall in 5 days, much faster than NHC forecast:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL120.gif

looks like dade county, no landfall for broward

How can you tell its all under a bunch of black circles.

SE FL is buried under all the tracks(consensus)

[SouthFLTropics]

Look at the BIG difference in the SHIP and the DSHP. Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't the DSHP take into account land interaction while SHIPS does not? The Greater Antilles are going to be a BIG factor in track and intensity I believe.

SFT

[SFLcane]

00z modes pretty clustered around S.FL

[Blown Away]

I notice the 00z Bam shallow model going west as the Euro was advertising. So IMO a deeper Isaac will turn and a shallow Isaac goes west.

[gatorcane]

Considering the Euro a few days ago barely had a low moving into the Leewards (more like a wave)...I would treat the Euro run as very suspect at this point. I am leaning more with the GFS right now.

[SeminoleWind]

[quote="SFLcane"]00z modes pretty clustered around S.FL

Pretty good agreement there so far out.

[GTStorm]

00z modes pretty clustered around S.FL

I'd say they are certainly locking on to the trend. What would be nice would be if they all locked on to the trend happening sooner, and showed Isaac curving out to sea....

[SouthFLTropics]

Considering the Euro a few days ago barely had a low moving into the Leewards (more like a wave)...I would treat the Euro run as very suspect at this point. I am leaning more with the GFS right now.

EURO does seem to be struggling with Cyclogenesis issues this year. I think that once better data is in the Euro we shall see it come around the the consensus way of thinking.

SFT

[Dean4Storms]

The Euro seems to weaken it as it brushes Hispaniola and thus the lower level flow takes control sending it more due west. Quite plausible if Isaac gets shredded by that Island. Doesn't matter if it is shear or land, a weaker, shallower system will get steered by the lower level flow, we could even see a decapitation of the mid and upper level headed NW like the GFS shows but the lower level circulation heads west.