ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/4756/cvwave.jpg (see image above in Blown Away post)
Joe Bastardi / Weatherbell's thoughts on Isaac.

Wow that's hard to read. But since he's making such a threatening forecast people just need to know that "JB" is not a university trained hurricane specialist and has no official credentials for forecasting them. That is just one person's opinion. You should trust the NHC for official forecasts.

Just an image from their site, he is a respected forecaster and of course we rely on the NHC, but no reason to disrespect. JMHO

[Weatherboy1]

The reason the nhc ratcheted down the intensity is because the forecast track would keep isaac over Cuba for a pretty lengthy period of time. The real risk is that he deviates even as little as 30-50 miles one way or the other. Then that would keep him over water longer, enabling the system to get even stronger. Conditions look pretty favorable for intensification in the nw Caribbean. Just my opinion as always!

[ozonepete]

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/4756/cvwave.jpg (see image above in Blown Away post)
Joe Bastardi / Weatherbell's thoughts on Isaac.

Wow that's hard to read. But since he's making such a threatening forecast people just need to know that "JB" is not a university trained hurricane specialist and has no official credentials for forecasting them. That is just one person's opinion. You should trust the NHC for official forecasts.

Just an image from their site, he is a respected forecaster and of course we rely on the NHC, but no reason to disrespect. JMHO

Lol, no problem. You just need a disclaimer since it's an opinion by someone who's not a tropical meteorologist.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 54.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[WilmingtonSandbar]

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/4756/cvwave.jpg
Joe Bastardi / Weatherbell's thoughts on Isaac.

If JB's prediction pans out, Isaac is going to be on my doorstep with 100kt winds on Wednesday night. Here's hoping JB is wrong.

[wxman76]

I doubt JB's far right is realistic, then again the far left may not be either. I personally like it going over or near florida, but I can see his midline. i am not here to promote JB but i will say this from working directly with him. he is a dedicated meteorologist with a BS from Penn State. Behind all his forecasts are real reasons. whether they are right or not they are reasons and if he feels good enough he does what other people seldom do, go against the grain. When he's right he's dead on. When he's wrong he busts bad, but that is how we all learn. i don;t always agree with his forecasts either. But from knowing him I respect the man and I respect his thought processes. Like him or not he doesn't wishcast, not that anyone claimed that. unfortunately he has a big ego, unlike me and some people see that as threatening and that is ok too. He has beaten NHC a number of times. Time will tell if he is right again, but let's not put anybody down here. That isn't why we are here, it is to share the knowledge and love we all feel for the weather. This is solely my opinion and not that of anyone else. For all official forecasts refer to NHC. that is all i will say about the subject.

[tolakram]

... and with that, I think we need to get away from JB and back on topic please. Thanks.

[Solaris]

ISAAC looks very good at this point...symmetric CDO and outflow pattern. This might reach Hurricane strength a lot faster than we expect, possibly in the next 12 hours

[ozonepete]

Having said that about the CIMSS charts, Mark, it does appear from the satellite loops that there still is some northeasterly shear but not as bad as earlier today. Convection is still much improved to the west. According to the shear forecasts and NHC Isaac shlud move past that remaining shear after tonight, so tomorrow it should intensify more steadily.

[WeatherGuesser]

If it manages to miss or just skim Cuba and get into the Gulf, we could be looking at a whole new ballgame.

[ROCK]

looks like the center reloed or corrected itself closer to that ball of convection.....pulsing up and down until it finally gets to a good place aloft....18 mph is still pretty quick but its better than before...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[stephen23]

Looks like its starting to wrap up over last few frames

[Deputy Van Halen]

The Key to Isacc will be how far west will Isacc get when it feels the weakness. A slower moving storm could miss Florida completely if the storm gets so strong and goes over the Bahamas and out to sea.

Is this storm one of those situations where a stronger storm will feel the low pressure and turn north, while a weaker storm might keep truckin' to the west?

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 212359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 53.9W AT 21/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 435 NM E OF GUADELOUPE MOVING W AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE CENTER FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W -57W. TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN INITIATED BY THE INDIVIDUAL GOVERNMENTS OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM MARTINIQUE TO ST MARTIN
AND ANGUILLA.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 09, 2012082200, , BEST, 0, 155N, 548W, 35, 1006, TS

[Blown Away]

The Key to Isacc will be how far west will Isacc get when it feels the weakness. A slower moving storm could miss Florida completely if the storm gets so strong and goes over the Bahamas and out to sea.

Is this storm one of those situations where a stronger storm will feel the low pressure and turn north, while a weaker storm might keep truckin' to the west?

IMO yes, the Euro shows a weak system going farther west before developing.

[KBBOCA]

Can anyone remind me of the link or links that show the forecast track of the storm ALONG WITH the circles that show wind radii? I'm trying to get a better feel for the size of this storm.

[FYI, I noticed the NHC has added a disclaimer to the 3 day / 5 day cone graphics, that the cone has nothing to do with the size of the storm and storm effects can still be felt outside of the come... a very helpful disclaimer in my opinion, as I think that has confused many people in the past. Perhaps this is not a new disclaimer, but I just noticed it for the first time today]

[artist]

Can anyone remind me of the link or links that show the forecast track of the storm ALONG WITH the circles that show wind radii? I'm trying to get a better feel for the size of this storm.

[FYI, I noticed the NHC has added a disclaimer to the 3 day / 5 day cone graphics, that the cone has nothing to do with the size of the storm and storm effects can still be felt outside of the come... a very helpful disclaimer in my opinion, as I think that has confused many people in the past. Perhaps this is not a new disclaimer, but I just noticed it for the first time today]

Don't have the link for you KB, but here is a link for all regarding the cone we put together here -
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109232

[SouthFLTropics]

It appears that the ridge is currently pretty strong as the top of Isaac seems to be being flattened out on the North side. Not sure if that is shear causing that or if he's bumping up against the ridge.

SFT

[KBBOCA]

I'm thinking that the graphics I'm thinking of were at either Skeetobite or a boating site - forget the name maybe boatus? I'm on a new computer and don't have all my old weather bookmarks handy...