ATL: ISAAC - Models

[SeminoleWind]

Check this out it is an animated version of SFWMD models, it skips images about half way into it but toward the end you can really see how they start to group.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 2&title=09

[CYCLONE MIKE]

we saw what happened with E. Started coming together east of Barbados and as everyone was saying here he goes, he just fell apart. Until this becomes a strong TS or weak hurricane in the eastern carib have to go with the euro until Isaac and the east carib proves otherwise. Also if he does happen to follow the track of the latest model suite there will be nothing left of him and the remants will go west.

[ronjon]

18z GFS ensemble run - into Mobile Bay.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensembles500mbHGHTtropical_Loop.html

[ROCK]

18z GFS ensemble run - into Mobile Bay.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensembles500mbHGHTtropical_Loop.html

uh thats pretty far west after clearing FL....just sayin....

[wxwatcher1999]

18z GFS ensemble run - into Mobile Bay.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensembles500mbHGHTtropical_Loop.html

uh thats pretty far west after clearing FL....just sayin....

wow..that is a change...could be on to something

[Blown Away]

00z Dynamic Models

IMO, slowly shifting N through Hispaniola, concerned a track skirting the north coast won't affect Isaac that much and allow him to become a stronger storm.

[Stormlover2012]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html


gfs ensembles spread out everywhere, like i have been saying for 3 days now models mean nothing right now they are everywhere

[TheShrimper]

we saw what happened with E. Started coming together east of Barbados and as everyone was saying here he goes, he just fell apart. Until this becomes a strong TS or weak hurricane in the eastern carib have to go with the euro until Isaac and the east carib proves otherwise. Also if he does happen to follow the track of the latest model suite there will be nothing left of him and the remants will go west.

Kinda like Georges??

[KBBOCA]

Check this out it is an animated version of SFWMD models, it skips images about half way into it but toward the end you can really see how they start to group.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 2&title=09

Very cool link. Thanks.
There seems to be a strong westward trend...

Disclaimer: I'm an amateur. Don't take my opinion as anything other than an amateur's opinion!

[wxman76]

Correction, I meant East of the center. Early Cycle 00z hurricane models are in. Still quite a splay but looks like consensus IMO lies south Puerto Rico then Across Hispanola mostly Haiti, Just to the North of Cuba, and aimed a little S and West of the GFDL and seems to be aimed at Southeastern FL. Open to others interpretation.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/ ... atestrun=1
select early models

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including Storm2k. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

Correction, I meant East of the center. Early Cycle 00z hurricane models are in. Still quite a splay but looks like consensus IMO lies south Puerto Rico then Across Hispanola mostly Haiti, Just to the North of Cuba, and aimed a little S and West of the GFDL and seems to be aimed at Southeastern FL. Open to others interpretation.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/ ... atestrun=1
select early models

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including Storm2k. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

thing about Hispaniola is that it will weaken the system greatly regardless. ( though there are exceptions) this being a large circulation will have a better shot of redeveloping a circ after passing

[bamajammer4eva]

NHC track can extend to 7 days on that map

[CrazyC83]

00Z model runs have the G-IV flight data?

[JPmia]

thing about Hispaniola is that it will weaken the system greatly regardless. ( though there are exceptions) this being a large circulation will have a better shot of redeveloping a circ after passing

Aric, DSHIPS brings it down to 38kts during its trek across Haiti & Cuba

[Bocadude85]

00Z model runs have the G-IV flight data?

I do not believe so

[SunnyThoughts]

00Z model runs have the G-IV flight data?

I do not believe so

G-IV flight on Thursday...none flown yet.

[Weatherboy1]

I continue to be struck by the storm's potential size. I know it doesn't have huge windfields yet, nor a ton of convection, but if you look at some of the satellite images, particularly at StormCarib, you can see that the forming system basically fills an entire latitude - longitude "square". WOW. One possibly VERY LARGE storm.

http://stormcarib.com/goes.htm

Does anyone have easy access to comparison shots of other large storms... ? I'm aware of the potential of large storms to push forward a LOT of water, even if they're not major storms at landfall.

Disclaimer: I'm just an amateur. Don't treat my post as anything official... I may be totally wrong!

I had commented earlier that the circulation envelope reminded me a lot of how big Floyd was in 1999, just east of the Bahamas when he peaked in intensity. That storm was as big as Florida! Thankfully Isaac is nowhere near that strong.

[sphelps8681]

It seems that by reading allllll the posts quite a few are more willing to assume the cmc the one more to right is more in line than the euro which is more to the left. Is the euro doing that poorly with tropical predictions that this could happen or is the cmc performing that well.

Just curious.

[tolakram]

It seems that by reading allllll the posts quite a few are more willing to assume the cmc the one more to right is more in line than the euro which is more to the left. Is the euro doing that poorly with tropical predictions that this could happen or is the cmc performing that well.

Just curious.

It doesn't have a very good track record this year, but I am going to assume it's better then the cmc. The best bet is a consensus of the models plus some expert NHC forecaster smarts thrown in to decide who to lean too. So in short, gfs gets more lean too this year, so far.

[sphelps8681]

It seems that by reading allllll the posts quite a few are more willing to assume the cmc the one more to right is more in line than the euro which is more to the left. Is the euro doing that poorly with tropical predictions that this could happen or is the cmc performing that well.

Just curious.

It doesn't have a very good track record this year, but I am going to assume it's better then the cmc. The best bet is a consensus of the models plus some expert NHC forecaster smarts thrown in to decide who to lean too. So in short, gfs gets more lean too this year, so far.

All the years I have been on the site it seems that more people put more stock in the euro.

Thanks for your reply.