ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12082 ... _ships.txt

[artist]

I'm thinking that the graphics I'm thinking of were at either Skeetobite or a boating site - forget the name maybe boatus? I'm on a new computer and don't have all my old weather bookmarks handy...

is this it?
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracki ... windfields

[wxman76]

Isaac probably is bumping up against the ridge some, they usually follow along the periphery of the ridge until they find a weakness. To me it's still pulsing but my take is that is trying to consolidate. There were 2 centers of convection earlier and they seem to be merging. This could be a sign that the energy is finally trying to bundle together. Shear should be diminishing so the center could be relocating under the new CDO. time will tell for sure. It still looks a lot better than it did this time yesterday. tops a lot colder and more widespread convection.

Last shot shows new cells developing west of the center, a good sign since until recently all the convection was to the East of the center or to the South.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including Storm2k. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

21/2345 UTC 15.4N 55.1W T2.0/2.0 ISAAC

[KBBOCA]

I'm thinking that the graphics I'm thinking of were at either Skeetobite or a boating site - forget the name maybe boatus? I'm on a new computer and don't have all my old weather bookmarks handy...

is this it?
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracki ... windfields

Thanks Artist, yes that's one of them!
I finally found the other site too. It is Skeetobite. I didn't find it at first as I'd mistyped "Sketto" instead of "Skeeto" when doing a google search.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... =201282120

I should have kept searching before posting my question! Thanks for the help.

[Aric Dunn]

for the first time. some new convection is firing to the east of the center. things are slowly coming together.

[Gustywind]

Hi Aric, any idea about the intensity of this TS? The islands should deal with a weak moderate strong TS or even a possible cat 1 cane? Thanks for you input

[ozonepete]

for the first time. some new convection is firing to the east of the center. things are slowly coming together.

Yeah, it's moving out of the shear zone now.

[Steve H.]

Honestly, it looked better a few hours ago. We'll see what he looks like in the morning. No hot towers near the center, just some disorganized convection in the vicinity of the "Coc." we'll see what the morning brings.

[Aric Dunn]

Hi Aric, any idea about the intensity of this TS? The islands should deal with a weak moderate strong TS or even a possible cat 1 cane? Thanks for you input

its a little close to become a hurricane before the islands but if overnight the convection can build in all quadrants then a strong TS quite possible as it passes through the islands.

[HeeBGBz]

Any time a storm looks to pass through the Florida Straits I start getting antsy. It seems that's when we start getting in the target range. Just my unprofessional opinion.

[Gustywind]

Hi Aric, any idea about the intensity of this TS? The islands should deal with a weak moderate strong TS or even a possible cat 1 cane? Thanks for you input

its a little close to become a hurricane before the islands but if overnight the convection can build in all quadrants then a strong TS quite possible as it passes through the islands.

Ok thanks to you, i appreciate. If we could escape from a hurricane that's wonderfull, and chances looks more than minimal for the TS it"s another story but let's continue to monitor Isaac.

[lilybeth]

Hi all. I asked earlier about possible impacts to Haiti if the storm stays on its current track/strength predictions. Any thoughts? Would greatly appreciate any theories.

Impacts to Haiti could be dramatic even if Isaac doesn't make a direct hit. The country is still reeling from the devastation of the earthquake a few years ago and they have also seen significant loss of life during tropical depressions and tropical storms due to heavy rainfall and mudslides. It doesn't take a hurricane to cause major problems in Haiti. They will need our thoughts and prayers for sure.

SFT

Thank you SFT. That is my concern. I know they are still trying to recover from the earthquake. Yes, I agree. Thoughts and prayers to all going out tonight. Please stay safe. And thanks to all who keep us informed on here. It is a great place to be to learn about weather, IMO.

[Dean4Storms]

I just don't see this organizing that fast. Between its forward speed, some shear and the dry air I doubt it deepens much before passing just south of Hispaniola IMO.

[hurricanes1234]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Is Isaac the same as before, according to the best track? So at 11 PM, will it be the same 40 mph/1006 mbar?

[wxwatcher1999]

I just don't see this organizing that fast. Between its forward speed, some shear and the dry air I doubt it deepens much before passing just south of Hispaniola IMO.

and if thats the case the euro would be verified by it traveling further west with a shallow system

[KBBOCA]

[reposting this from the models thread where I posted it by mistake.]

I continue to be struck by the storm's potential size. I know it doesn't have huge windfields yet, nor a ton of convection, but if you look at some of the satellite images, particularly at StormCarib, you can see that the forming system basically fills an entire latitude - longitude "square". WOW. One possibly VERY LARGE storm.

http://stormcarib.com/goes.htm

Does anyone have easy access to comparison shots of other large storms... ? I'm aware of the potential of large storms to push forward a LOT of water, even if they're not major storms at landfall.

Disclaimer: I'm just an amateur. Don't treat my post as anything official... I may be totally wrong!

[Blown Away]

IMO, based on the 00z models and Isaac getting more organized, I think the NHC will shift the track to the right a little with the line going through central Haiti and then towards SFL

[Stormlover2012]

the NHC will keep with the euro and gfs, those other models have struggled all year

[Weatherfreak000]

IMO, based on the 00z models and Isaac getting more organized, I think the NHC will shift the track to the right a little with the line going through central Haiti and then towards SFL

Wait until tonight's EURO and GFS before you decide. Wxman47 liked the panhandle...trend is still highly uncertain