ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1181 Postby artist » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:27 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:It seems that by reading allllll the posts quite a few are more willing to assume the cmc the one more to right is more in line than the euro which is more to the left. Is the euro doing that poorly with tropical predictions that this could happen or is the cmc performing that well.

Just curious.



It doesn't have a very good track record this year, but I am going to assume it's better then the cmc. The best bet is a consensus of the models plus some expert NHC forecaster smarts thrown in to decide who to lean too. So in short, gfs gets more lean too this year, so far. :)


All the years I have been on the site it seems that more people put more stock in the euro.

Thanks for your reply.

The GFS was upgraded on the 22nd of June, I believe it was, and has shown much improvement since then.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1182 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:28 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:It seems that by reading allllll the posts quite a few are more willing to assume the cmc the one more to right is more in line than the euro which is more to the left. Is the euro doing that poorly with tropical predictions that this could happen or is the cmc performing that well.

Just curious.



It doesn't have a very good track record this year, but I am going to assume it's better then the cmc. The best bet is a consensus of the models plus some expert NHC forecaster smarts thrown in to decide who to lean too. So in short, gfs gets more lean too this year, so far. :)


All the years I have been on the site it seems that more people put more stock in the euro.

Thanks for your reply.


NHC model verification over the years clearly shows the euro is the best, but perhaps the GFS is catching up.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml

Note that the graphs on that page are for 48H forecasts. EMX is the euro.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1183 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:31 pm

Have to wait a few more hours for the next EURO but in the mean time we have the 0Z GFS coming up.....right now we are kind of in a lull between runs....


unless you want to see the 0Z NAM.... :lol:
Last edited by ROCK on Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1184 Postby Stormlover2012 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:31 pm

euro struggled with debby and thats it if debby center doesnt relocate then he euro would have got debby right
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1185 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:33 pm

Stormlover2012 wrote:euro struggled with debby and thats it if debby center doesnt relocate then he euro would have got debby right




I still think the GFS got it right for all the wrong reasons.....but I digress......it wasnt only the EURO who had egg on its face....every other model was showing a EURO solution also...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1186 Postby Stormlover2012 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:35 pm

yeah and if debby center doesnt relocate north over night then we are talking about how the gfs got it wrong
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1187 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:37 pm

Stormlover2012 wrote:euro struggled with debby and thats it if debby center doesnt relocate then he euro would have got debby right



The Euro struggled with Ernesto at first also I believe.. the GFS has done much better this year then previous years. As far as I am concerned the GFS has had the best track record this year.. of course this can all change.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1188 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:40 pm

ROCK wrote:Have to wait a few more hours for the next EURO but in the mean time we have the 0Z GFS coming up.....right now we are kind of in a lull between runs....

unless you want to see the 0Z NAM.... :lol:


I'll have to lol that.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1189 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:59 pm

0Z NAM- only for entertainment purposes

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1190 Postby Javlin » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:01 pm

ROCK wrote:0Z NAM- only for entertainment purposes

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


Looks more in consenus with most models unlike the CMC/NOGAPS :D
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#1191 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:07 pm

00Z GFS rolls in less than 30...
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#1192 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:14 pm

Looking forward to GFS and the EURO later tonight...If I can stay awake that long.
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#1193 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:29 pm

Curious to see if the Euro falls more in line with the GFS or visa versa.
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#1194 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:36 pm

00Z GFS out 27 Hrs
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=027
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#1195 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:39 pm

00Z GFS 36 Hr

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=036
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1196 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:42 pm

ROCK wrote:
Stormlover2012 wrote:euro struggled with debby and thats it if debby center doesnt relocate then he euro would have got debby right




I still think the GFS got it right for all the wrong reasons.....but I digress......it wasnt only the EURO who had egg on its face....every other model was showing a EURO solution also...



Kinda like Doug Flutie got a career & was made famous due to 1 hail mary throw? LOL
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#1197 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:43 pm

00Z GFS 48 HR
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=048
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#1198 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:47 pm

00Z GFS 57 HR
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=057
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#1199 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:50 pm

00Z GFS @ 69
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=069
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1200 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:52 pm

that core is going to get shredded on this run.....right over the mountains....
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