WPAC: GUCHOL - Post-Tropical

[Chacor]

PAGASA have now named this system "BUTCHOY" for domestic warnings.

[Typhoon Hunter]

PAGASA have now named this system "BUTCHOY" for domestic warnings.

Sounds like the name of an East End gangster in a Guy Ritchie movie!

[phwxenthusiast]

wow looks like Guchol is really trying to battle that wind shear (which is very evident now on the sat images)... convection remains good despite the core taking somewhat of a beating... JTWC still holding at 60kt, let's see if it can make that push tonight..

[Typhoon Hunter]

wow looks like Guchol is really trying to battle that wind shear (which is very evident now on the sat images)... convection remains good despite the core taking somewhat of a beating... JTWC still holding at 60kt, let's see if it can make that push tonight..

There's a huge burst of convection take place near the centre so I think it's winning the battle against shear at the moment. Lovely evening visible sat image of that exploding hot tower (which has grown considerable over last couple of hours.)

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

[cycloneye]

[Infdidoll]

Wow! Look at that. Man, even yesterday I was still doubtful about this storm. BOMB! Crap, the latest sat images are crazy.

The Guy Ritchie comment had me laughing out loud. Lock, stock, and two more days till we're ground zero. LOL

[dexterlabio]

70kts on NRL. JTWC will have an upgrade on their next warning.

[Infdidoll]

The track is reminiscent of Songda that hit in May of last year. Okinawa saw a lot of damage from that storm. Lots of broken windows and vehicle damages at our building and about half the building lost fire escape doors on each floor. If it hits as projected from the West side, putting us in the right front quadrant again, it isn't going to be fun.

[dexterlabio]

i cant figure out why the JTWC track has Guchol as a typhoon in the previous position when they just upgraded it a while ago.

[Extratropical94]

So far, in 2012, every storm in the WPAC has been upgraded to typhoon status by the JTWC.
But officially, we're still at 8/4/1/0

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 10.8N 132.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT800
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 132.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 11.1N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 11.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 13.1N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.1N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.3N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.0N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 29.4N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 132.2E.
TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

i cant figure out why the JTWC track has Guchol as a typhoon in the previous position when they just upgraded it a while ago.

Likely a retroactive correction to their running best track.

[euro6208]

WOW! this says it all...120 NM diameter central dense overcast? this has to be one mighty compact strong typhoon right now...possibly category 4 equivalent...


WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 120 NM DIAMETER CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. A 140811Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AS WELL AS RECENT
FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES
AND PGTW BASED ON THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE (RJTD REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS,
WHICH APPEARS TOO LOW). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TY 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES THAT THE
WESTERN STR REMAINS WEAK WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, AND THAT WESTERLY FLOW IS DOMINATING EAST CHINA AND THE EAST
CHINA SEA. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO TURN ONTO A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK NEAR 125E AS INDICATED BY ALL DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE,
WHICH IS COMING INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72. TY 05W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO THE LACK OF A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SYSTEM.
C. RECENTLY, THE 14/00Z ECMWF RUN HAS SHIFTED INTO CLOSE
ALIGNMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST, MODEL CONSENSUS AND RJTD OFFICIAL
FORECAST, WHICH INDICATE A TRACK JUST WEST OF OKINAWA. GFS IS THE
EASTERN-MOST OUTLIER AND INDICATES A TRACK EAST OF OKINAWA. THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE IS OVER AND TO THE WEST OF OKINAWA AND, AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. THERE IS, HOWEVER, STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE STR AND
DEPTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 72. TY 05W IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT NEARS OKINAWA DUE
TO DECREASING SST AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEAR TAU 120 AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF OKINAWA. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG STORM-FORCE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
WESTERN JAPAN.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

very deep convection surrounding a pinhole eye?

[dexterlabio]

that is indeed a very compact core with intense convection, but i doubt if it already has that pinhole thing. i think the eye forming remains obscured by high cloud tops. who knows, maybe the eye would clear out soon if it develops fast enough.

[cycloneye]

that is indeed a very compact core with intense convection, but i doubt if it already has that pinhole thing. i think the eye forming remains obscured by high cloud tops. who knows, maybe the eye would clear out soon if it develops fast enough.

Is getting more closer to Luzon as it has tracked more west than anticipated and the more closer it comes,the more impacts will be felt there.

[dexterlabio]

Parma in 2009 began to develop with large, compact CDO then the pinhole rapidly developed. At that time though, conditions support RI. I just don't know with this one. I haven't seen any storm with that pinhole eye since Parma.

[euro6208]

we might see a category 5 with 160 knots ?

[dexterlabio]

Is getting more closer to Luzon as it has tracked more west than anticipated and the more closer it comes,the more impacts will be felt there.

thats what i was also thinking, and i thought i am the only one seeing a westward track. i might be wrong but the last few time frames as i see them show a dip to the south. if it hopefully turns on time then the impacts of this storm would be avoided. the thing i dont like about recurving storms is the timing...

[euro6208]

Parma in 2009 began to develop with large, compact CDO then the pinhole rapidly developed. At that time though, conditions support RI. I just don't know with this one. I haven't seen any storm with that pinhole eye since Parma.

honestly though...guchol reminds me of parma (2009)...very small pinhole eye but guchols' has yet to appear...parma clearly was a record storm...

[Typhoon Hunter]

we might see a category 5 with 160 knots ?

Woah woah, let's just take a deep breath and calm down a bit here, one the CHIPS ensembles aren't reliable forecast intensity models and should not be treated as model guidance. You will ALWAYS see them forecasting a cat. 5. One of the pro mets on here will be able to explain exactly what their existence is for... utterly pointless would be a good start.

Two, how does a 120nm CDO alone suggest the possibility of this storm being a potential category 4 typhoon already? I know we all like enthusiastic discussion on here but I personally would like some more evidence to back up your claims before I can take them seriously (especially since you repeatedly claim every forecast agency's / auto Dvorak estimates are too low with most storms.)

Here's the latest Dvorak estimate from KNES made subjectively by a trained meteorologist using a multitude of satellite products:

512
TXPQ28 KNES 141533
TCSWNP

A. 05W (GUCHOL)

B. 14/1432Z

C. 10.6N

D. 132.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...05W DOES NOT HAVE AN EYE IN EIR OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY. LLCC
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE UNDER DEEP CONVECTION. CENTER EMBEDDED IN LG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET = 4.0. PT = 4.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/1235Z 10.6N 132.8E AMSU


...GUILLOT

=

EDIT: And please give evidence to support your reasoning that Parma at peak intensity is similar to Guchol right now!