ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[greenkat]

Is this still considered a fish storm if it hit/affected the Cape Verde Islands as a tropical wave?

Don't think so. Just me, though.

[cycloneye]

Beautiful storm that is organizing fast with the bands and CDO increasing. This is a saved animation.

[SouthDadeFish]

Beautiful banding structure:

[Parungo]

TD now official, if anyone's interested.

Doesn't appear so.

Well, not so far... if GFS and Euro solutions are ok.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7432/gfs-0-168_nrq0.png

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6144/ECM1-192_gtg9.GIF

From Spain, Parungo.

[wolfpack2105]

curve, baby, curve!

[CrazyC83]

AL, 14, 2012091212, , BEST, 0, 187N, 470W, 50, 997, TS

[CrazyC83]

NADINE 14L T3.5/3.5 12/1145Z Atlantic

[tolakram]

Latest

[tolakram]

From the latest discussion:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS STILL SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track is up to 55kts.

AL, 14, 2012091218, , BEST, 0, 196N, 482W, 55, 994, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[hurricanes1234]

Nadine is getting her act together fast. She's already a 65 mph system, after being only 45 mph just 12 hours ago. What a lovely fish storm we have!

[westwind]

Nadine is getting her act together fast. She's already a 65 mph system, after being only 45 mph just 12 hours ago. What a lovely fish storm we have!

It might be a bit early to call Nadine a fish storm yet, it could well affect the Azores and possibly even Europe so I'm certainly going to be keeping an eye on this one.

[cycloneye]

Global Hawk completes Nadine mission.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurri ... adine.html

NASA Global Hawk and Satellites Attend Tropical Storm Nadine's 'Birth'


Tropical Depression 14 strengthened into Tropical Storm Nadine while NASA's Hurricane Severe Storm Sentinel Mission, or HS3 mission, was in full-swing and NASA's Global Hawk aircraft captured the event. While the Global Hawk was gathering data over the storm, NASA satellites were also analyzing Nadine from space.

NASA's Global Hawk landed back at Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Va., after spending a full day gathering data from the 14th Atlantic Tropical Depression that strengthened into Tropical Storm Nadine during the morning hours of Sept. 12.

Complete mission path.

[littlevince]

It might be a bit early to call Nadine a fish storm yet, it could well affect the Azores and possibly even Europe so I'm certainly going to be keeping an eye on this one.

yep, it's a bit annoying to see people calling fish-storm when there are some solid models (ecmwf,gfs) consistently passing the storm at least close to Azores.

ECMWF 12z


http://www.meteopt.com/previsao/modelos/ecmwf/europa

GFS 12z:


http://www.meteopt.com/previsao/modelos ... la-iberica

[psyclone]

Nadine is impressive. even if we don't have another storm the rest of the season, the 2012 hurricane season has been more active than i imagined. even if el nino exerts influence over the latter part of the season, it is likely we'll still use a couple more names. in the meantime it will be interesting to see if Nadine can go through a period of RI and reach major status.

[hurricanes1234]

Sorry if I "annoyed" anyone by calling it a fish storm - as far as I am concerned, everyone is free to have his/her own opinion.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM AST WED SEP 12 2012

FORECASTER ROTH/PASCH

Issued by thegreatdr himself.

memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=9077

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well...after this season kicking my rear repeatedly on RI forecasts...this might actually be the one that behaves (orrr...not. Who knows).

One admin note:
If Nadine strengthens 10 knots by 00Z (to 65 knots), she will have technically undergone RI (35 knots to 65 knots from 00Z 9/12 to 00Z 9/13). If Nadine strengthens 15 knots by 06Z (to 70 knots), she will have undergone RI (40 knots to 70 knots between 06Z 9/12 and 06Z 9/13). Data used is from the BT of the system.
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

RI is considered as an increase in wind speed of 30 knots or greater in a 24 hour period.

Now on to everything else. Nadine, unlike Leslie, is not forecast to stall and try to bring the cold North Atlantic waters all the way up to the surface. Likewise, unless an undersea volcano erupts and forms a giant island randomly, or the island from LOST shifts into the Atlantic, Nadine is not forecast to encounter land within at least the next 48 hours or so. Upper level conditions look good, with only some light wind shear to deal with over the next 36 to 48 hours. The only thing I'm concerned with is the dry air interfering with the inner core.

It looks like my indicator popped up around 2 pm EDT or so, and going off of that gives a start time to any RI of around 8 to 10 pm EDT. Using the 18Z Best Track intensity of 55 knots, that would put Nadine's intensity at a minimum of 85 knots by roughly 18Z tomorrow (21Z, if going off of advisories). Right now, I am going to go with 85 to 90 knots by then, especially with the fact this year's systems haven't been too kind to my RI forecasts.

[Cyclenall]

Nadine is getting her act together fast. She's already a 65 mph system, after being only 45 mph just 12 hours ago. What a lovely fish storm we have!

It might be a bit early to call Nadine a fish storm yet, it could well affect the Azores and possibly even Europe so I'm certainly going to be keeping an eye on this one.

yep, it's a bit annoying to see people calling fish-storm when there are some solid models (ecmwf,gfs) consistently passing the storm at least close to Azores.

Yes and I would go one step further than that and say Nadine already isn't a fish storm, it affected/hit the Cape Verde Islands as a TW. I guess some pretend those islands don't exist.

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM AST WED SEP 12 2012

FORECASTER ROTH/PASCH

Issued by thegreatdr himself.

memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=9077

Is that the first time one of S2K's members have written an advisory or has it happened before? Since its from the HPC the likelyhood increases I guess. How do you know his name is Mr.Roth?

Now that Nadine has reached that magic number of 55 knots, it will struggle. It appears steady right now so the waiting begins on this one.... NOT OFFICIAL!

[hurricanes1234]

OK! I apologize for calling Nadine a fish storm - forget everything I said! I made a mistake - there is no need to emphasize that I am pretending the Cape-Verde islands don't exist. Act as though I never called Nadine a fish storm - it isn't! Now stop it please, it is not a good thing to judge and control people's opinions! Again, I apologize for making a mistake - I will never mention the term "fish storm" for Nadine again!