WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#121 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 24, 2012 9:35 am

The JMA’s second violent typhoon in 2012.

AND IT'S SUPER TYPHOON AGAIN

1. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 14.7N 128.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 128.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.9N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.1N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.4N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.4N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.3N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.3N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 25.6N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 127.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z,
250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#122 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Sep 24, 2012 10:21 am

Hey there everyone, I just loaded a new video on this storm. Lots of work in to this one so please check it out.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9RxL-4CxJQ[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#123 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 24, 2012 10:28 am

Image

Image


WOW! this is incredible!


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 911.2mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.3 7.3


category 5!
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#124 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 24, 2012 10:36 am

although 1 min winds are 130 knots, this is most likely a category 5 already...




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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#125 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 24, 2012 10:39 am

Latest Discussion



WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 241135Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A 23NM ROUND
EYE AND A TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BAND WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT. STY 18W HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO SUPER TYPHOON
STATUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 (PGTW, KNES) TO 140
(RJTD) KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE ROUND EYE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AS TD 19W HAS TRACKED QUICKLY POLEWARD, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) HAS BUILT EAST OF STY 18W PROVIDING AN IMPROVED POLEWARD
STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN THE 24/00Z 500MB
ANALYSIS, WHICH SHOWS THAT THE WINDS AT YAP AND GUAM HAVE SHIFTED
AND STRENGTHENED OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER KOREA AND JAPAN IS
PROPAGATING EASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE MIDLATITUDE RIDGE IS BUILDING
INTO EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING NER TO
THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
THE STR WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ALLOW STY 18W TO
TURN NORTHWESTWARD. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH LARGE SHIFTS IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 350NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 DUE PRIMARILY TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
FORECASTED STRENGTH OF THE STR. ECMWF IS THE WESTERN-MOST OUTLIER
AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHERN LUZON WITH A
RE-CURVE POINT WEST OF TAIWAN. OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS, ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH LARGE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK. WBAR IS THE
EASTERN-MOST OUTLIER AND PRESENTS AN UNREALISTIC NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
WELL EAST OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
MODELS ARE SPREAD OUT FROM 120E TO 127E AND HAVE BEEN VERY ERRATIC
(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS) OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE JTWC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WESTERN GROUP OF MODEL SOLUTIONS;
HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. AVAILABLE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST TRACK WITH A SPREAD SIMILAR TO THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.
STY 18W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY NEAR 130 KNOTS THROUGH TAU
36 BUT SHOULD SEE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW WEAKENS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE DYNAMIC MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE WITH A 635NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES
TO FAVOR THE WESTERN GROUP OF SOLUTIONS, WHICH INDICATE A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN WITH A RE-CURVE POINT EAST OF
TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 96, STY 18W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE TOWARD
OKINAWA IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 72. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#126 Postby Meow » Mon Sep 24, 2012 11:11 am

dexterlabio wrote:developing a big eye? you mean like 2000's Jelawat? :lol:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMwWy4q-qXs

I don’t think this Jelawat will become a donut... The first Jelawat was not very strong.
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#127 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 24, 2012 11:22 am

how do you define *not very strong*...he peaked at 125 knots category 4....
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#128 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 24, 2012 11:22 am

Image

Heck of a storm, getting more symmetrical near the center.
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Re:

#129 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 24, 2012 11:24 am

Ntxw wrote:
Heck of a storm, getting more symmetrical near the center.


amazing to see the pinhole eye disappear and that big eye taking it's place....INCREDIBLE!


Image
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#130 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Sep 24, 2012 11:34 am

Night night STY Jelawat and your 3rd Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

Image
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#131 Postby Macrocane » Mon Sep 24, 2012 11:36 am

Incredible, stunning typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#132 Postby Meow » Mon Sep 24, 2012 11:47 am

euro6208 wrote:how do you define *not very strong*...he peaked at 125 knots category 4....

It had weakened when it was a donut.
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#133 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 24, 2012 12:06 pm

Meow wrote:
euro6208 wrote:how do you define *not very strong*...he peaked at 125 knots category 4....

It had weakened when it was a donut.


you say....The first Jelawat was not very strong...
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#134 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Sep 24, 2012 1:24 pm

euro6208 wrote:
Meow wrote:
euro6208 wrote:how do you define *not very strong*...he peaked at 125 knots category 4....

It had weakened when it was a donut.


you say....The first Jelawat was not very strong...


2000s Typhhon Jelawat peaked as a Cat 4, 2012s Typhhon Jelawat Peak as a Cat 5, twice.
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#135 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Sep 24, 2012 1:25 pm

STY Jelawat, NHC style

Image
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#136 Postby P.K. » Mon Sep 24, 2012 1:46 pm

Now forecasting a sub 900hPa typhoon!

WTPQ20 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1217 JELAWAT (1217)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 15.2N 127.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 16.8N 126.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 895HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 261800UTC 18.4N 124.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 895HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
72HF 271800UTC 20.2N 122.8E 210NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT =
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#137 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Sep 24, 2012 2:44 pm

Oh man...where's recon when you want/need them?
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#138 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 24, 2012 3:38 pm

Now a category five per JTWC with winds of 140 kts/160 mph, gusting to 170 kts/195 mph.
JMA is at 110 kts/125 mph with gusts of 155 kts/180 mph and 905 mbar.
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#139 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 24, 2012 3:53 pm

wow!! now let's wait for the visible image of the 2nd consecutive category 5 of 2012
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#140 Postby Macrocane » Mon Sep 24, 2012 5:28 pm

2 cat 5's in a row, good for you WPAC!
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