ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheShrimper]

IMO, based on the 00z models and Isaac getting more organized, I think the NHC will shift the track to the right a little with the line going through central Haiti and then towards SFL

Wait until tonight's EURO and GFS before you decide. Wxman47 liked the panhandle...trend is still highly uncertain

Don't know Wxman 47?

[SoupBone]

IMO, based on the 00z models and Isaac getting more organized, I think the NHC will shift the track to the right a little with the line going through central Haiti and then towards SFL

Wait until tonight's EURO and GFS before you decide. Wxman47 liked the panhandle...trend is still highly uncertain

Who is Wxman47?

Looking at the official NHC track, they expect it to make a hard right Friday morning. This looks a whole lot different from the 4pm update.

[Bocadude85]

IMO, based on the 00z models and Isaac getting more organized, I think the NHC will shift the track to the right a little with the line going through central Haiti and then towards SFL

Im not sure the NHC is ready to commit to a US landfall yet.. I am thinking they will stay on the south side of the guidance

[Hurricaneman]

IMO, based on the 00z models and Isaac getting more organized, I think the NHC will shift the track to the right a little with the line going through central Haiti and then towards SFL

Wait until tonight's EURO and GFS before you decide. Wxman47 liked the panhandle...trend is still highly uncertain

Who is Wxman47?

Looking at the official NHC track, they expect it to make a hard right Friday morning. This looks a whole lot different from the 4pm update.

I would have to think that was a typo, Isaac looks better tonight, if the trend continues, it could barrel through Hispaniola due to being stronger


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[San Felipe II]

Hi...

Issac could get closer to PR????

[cycloneye]

Hi...

Issac could get closer to PR????

The forecast is to pass south of us but you never know if things change and it moves closer or makes landfall here. The best example is Hortense in 1996 that was moving west but then changed course and moved to the NW thru SW PR.

[KBBOCA]

Hi...

Issac could get closer to PR????

Others, especially those Storm 2K folks who live in PR can tell you better, but here is a good tool that will help you find out how close the center of Isaac is forecast to be from your location.

http://stormcarib.com/closest4.htm

Remember, that effects from the storm can still occur far from the center, so do not just focus on the distance from the center alone! Find out what your local weather and emergency managers are saying.

Disclaimer: I'm just an amateur, trying to share some of what I've learned here and found helpful. NHC is the best source for official information!

[ROCK]

I dont know how much its going to strengthen when it hits this 30knt shear zone in front of it..see the TUTT dropping down above...there is 30-40-50knts of shear in the carib right now...the reason someone said it was flattening out on the NW side is because it tasted some of that 30knt shear area.....just what I am seeing right now....


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... m=&time=-1


see the ULL dropping down...that will have an impact of it doesnt move out of the way in the next few days...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

look at the current mid-shear right in the way....anyone remember 2006 Chris? models never picked up on that decapitation...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[LaBreeze]

Any time a storm looks to pass through the Florida Straits I start getting antsy. It seems that's when we start getting in the target range. Just my unprofessional opinion.

I know what you mean when you say "getting antsy", but for some strange reason (gut feeling I suppose - please do not take this as a wishcast or forecast), I just feel that this one is not meant for us (us being MS and LA).

[JPmia]

IMO, based on the 00z models and Isaac getting more organized, I think the NHC will shift the track to the right a little with the line going through central Haiti and then towards SFL

Im not sure the NHC is ready to commit to a US landfall yet.. I am thinking they will stay on the south side of the guidance

I don't think they will change the track much at 11pm.. i doubt the EURO will flip back east greatly so they will probably split the diff again.. their current forecast track looks good to me and they may just extend out another forecast point or make very small shifts either way.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

I dont know how much its going to strengthen when it hits this 30knt shear zone in front of it..see the TUTT dropping down above...there is 30-40-50knts of shear in the carib right now...the reason someone said it was flattening out on the NW side is because it tasted some of that 30knt shear area.....just what I am seeing right now....


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... m=&time=-1


see the ULL dropping down...that will have an impact of it doesnt move out of the way in the next few days...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

look at the current mid-shear right in the way....anyone remember 2006 Chris? models never picked up on that decapitation...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

The CIMSS shear chart for tendency is down right now but all forecasts are for that shear to dissipate. Where are you reading that such shear will still be there in the coming days. Would think that NHC would have discussed it?

[SoupBone]

I dont know how much its going to strengthen when it hits this 30knt shear zone in front of it..see the TUTT dropping down above...there is 30-40-50knts of shear in the carib right now...the reason someone said it was flattening out on the NW side is because it tasted some of that 30knt shear area.....just what I am seeing right now....


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... m=&time=-1


see the ULL dropping down...that will have an impact of it doesnt move out of the way in the next few days...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

look at the current mid-shear right in the way....anyone remember 2006 Chris? models never picked up on that decapitation...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Can you expound on this Rock? You think there's a possibility that the shear is so high it might shred him into an open wave or something similar?

edited by vbhoutex

[NDG]

This my forecasted track's cone of error, using the models that have best performed with Isaac so far.
I expect Isaac to recover right away after possibly tracking over Hispaniola and or eastern Cuba. Large hurricanes with a high circulation tend to recover quickly once they get over water, a good example was hurricane Georges.
I would expect that S FL could start feeling the effects of a Cat 1 if not a Cat 2 hurricane as early as Sunday night.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products




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[ROCK]

I dont know how much its going to strengthen when it hits this 30knt shear zone in front of it..see the TUTT dropping down above...there is 30-40-50knts of shear in the carib right now...the reason someone said it was flattening out on the NW side is because it tasted some of that 30knt shear area.....just what I am seeing right now....


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... m=&time=-1


see the ULL dropping down...that will have an impact of it doesnt move out of the way in the next few days...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

look at the current mid-shear right in the way....anyone remember 2006 Chris? models never picked up on that decapitation...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Can you expound on this Rock? You think there's a possibility that the shear is so high it might shred him into an open wave or something similar?

edited by vbhoutex


come on guys its not going to open up unless someone throws some Dynogel down it.. ...I was talking about the current shear in the Carib that might keep him from getting too strong, that and land interaction....SO that TUTT is just going to disappear in the next few days? hmmm...

[SoupBone]

I dont know how much its going to strengthen when it hits this 30knt shear zone in front of it..see the TUTT dropping down above...there is 30-40-50knts of shear in the carib right now...the reason someone said it was flattening out on the NW side is because it tasted some of that 30knt shear area.....just what I am seeing right now....


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... m=&time=-1


see the ULL dropping down...that will have an impact of it doesnt move out of the way in the next few days...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

look at the current mid-shear right in the way....anyone remember 2006 Chris? models never picked up on that decapitation...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Can you expound on this Rock? You think there's a possibility that the shear is so high it might shred him into an open wave or something similar?

edited by vbhoutex


come on guys its not going to open up unless someone throws some Dynogel down it.. ...I was talking about the current shear in the Carib that might keep him from getting too strong, that and land interaction....SO that TUTT is just going to disappear in the next few days? hmmm...

Well you kind of freaked me out when you referenced 2006 TS Chris. Didn't he just dissipate in the Caribbean?

[ozonepete]

come on guys its not going to open up unless someone throws some Dynogel down it.. ...I was talking about the current shear in the Carib that might keep him from getting too strong, that and land interaction....SO that TUTT is just going to disappear in the next few days? hmmm...

Ok, in all seriousness it isn't a TUTT, just a weak upper level low. It is supposed to weaken and basically collapse over the next day or so.

[RL3AO]

If anything that just looks like it will help outflow.

[Tyler Penland]

Ok, is it just me, or does it look like the center is south of 15.5N now?

[ROCK]

If anything that just looks like it will help outflow.

thats the ULL off to the NE dropping down right now at a high rate of speed.....I was talking about this area in the middle of the carib.....

[WeatherGuesser]

Miami and the Keys are in the 5 Day now as of this update.