ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

The 0z Operational ECMWF has the majority of the Ensembles supporting the idea of a South Texas landfall.

Those models are initiated way too far west. The further north this thing goes its more likely this will be a Florida storm IMO.

those are ensembles from last night. They are supposed to be all over the place.

[Ivanhater]

is everything cleared up now?

Clear as mud

Hopefully the 12z models will clear things up. If not, the NHC will probably follow the TVCN model..or split it down the middle....just speculation on my part.

[jinftl]

Sand Key buoy just sw of Key West has sustained winds of 27 kts (31 mph) and slowly decreasing pressure.



At 10am, Key West Airport has sustained winds of 21 mph with a gust to 26 mph.

[cycloneye]

ROCK,what Ivan said.

[ROCK]

is everything cleared up now?

Clear as mud

Hopefully the 12z models will clear things up. If not, the NHC will probably follow the TVCN model..or split it down the middle....just speculation on my part.

yeah, thats what I think they will blend the GFS in there somehow. You cant fault it for staying with its scenario over and over again.....

['CaneFreak]

Javlin, answer your question - yes, it is also preventing it from going west right now. As for the upper level conditions in a few days, I think the upper level winds will improve in the wake of the upper low but then mid level dry air will become a much larger issue as it makes its way west (IF it makes its way west).

Also keeps it from going W ATM and then does not the area fill in with high pressure once the ULL moves out?

[SouthDadeFish]

Observing WV imagery of the CONUS, the one player which I think will help determine 96L's fate is the potent shortwave which is currently moving through the Upper Plains riding over the ridge over the Intermountian West. I am watching this feature very closely.

This energy may sharpen the trough over the east coast just enough during the Sunday-Monday period and delay the High over the Intermountain West from building farther east. If this happens, then the weakness may be in place to pick 96L up through to the northeast. This is something I am just pointing out.

This is going to be an extremely close call. Fascinating wathcing this unfold.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

From what I've seen, that is what the GFS has been showing over the last few runs. The trough over the East Coast deepens in three days thanks to the kick provided by the aforementioned shortwave, and 96L/Debby follows a weakness left by the trough/some weird vorticity spawn to the NE. I think the GFS may be trying to do what AFM just described. It may be spitting out extra vorticity each time it tries to reform the center to the NE due to the heavier convection being over there. A lot of unknowns.

[ROCK]

ROCK,what Ivan said.

yeah thats looks like a big pile of goo...gives me a headache looking at it. I will come back when the 12Z suites run. I need to mow the yard...

[jinftl]

If a defined low level center develops, i would think the future model runs that work off of that as the starting point would be more accurate than the model runs we have seen. Even 50 or 100 miles in difference in where the LLC actually forms vs. where models have been estimating it could mean the world of difference in output of future track.

[northjaxpro]

Observing WV imagery of the CONUS, the one player which I think will help determine 96L's fate is the potent shortwave which is currently moving through the Upper Plains riding over the ridge over the Intermountian West. I am watching this feature very closely.

This energy may sharpen the trough over the east coast just enough during the Sunday-Monday period and delay the High over the Intermountain West from building farther east. If this happens, then the weakness may be in place to pick 96L up through to the northeast. This is something I am just pointing out.

This is going to be an extremely close call. Fascinating wathcing this unfold.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

From what I've seen, that is what the GFS has been showing over the last few runs. The trough over the East Coast deepens in three days thanks to the kick provided by the aforementioned shortwave, and 96L/Debby follows a weakness left by the trough/some weird vorticity spawn to the NE. I think the GFS may be trying to do what AFM just described. It may be spitting out extra vorticity each time it tries to reform the center to the NE due to the heavier convection being over there. A lot of unknowns.

Exactly.

[vbhoutex]

Is there an ULL forming over SE TX? Will that help to stear it towards Florida? And do you guys see any swells likely for the TX coast? It seems to far North for a TX hit. I've never seen a storm that far North come back and hit TX. Been here 35 years

Thanks

Irak, have you forgotten Hurricane Alicia? She formed around 27N iirc and we know where she went.

96L is going to be very interesting to watch. There are so many possibilities based on the current and progged steering pattern. I think that AFM may have hit on the eventual outcome, especially it the ULL doesn't move South into the BOC relatively quickly.

[cycloneye]

To not post discussions in the main recon thread that may cause the data to get lost,here is the tread to discuss all about what is going on as the data comes in. Todays TCPOD will soon by released with new information aboit the upcomming missions for the next two days.

[boca]

ROCK,what Ivan said.

That map looks like what I had for dinner last night spaghetti

[SouthDadeFish]

The GFS is also showing that the environment 96L will be located in 48 hours will probably a lot nicer than what it is seeing now. Check out the anticyclone setting up over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico:



Combined with the ULL to the west, there will probably be some great outflow as well as lower shear if 96L can stay close enough to the center of the anticyclone.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I made 2 polls for 96L

Formation Poll
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=113012&hilit=
Strength Poll
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=113014

[CrazyC83]

A ship an hour ago came within 75 miles (ESE) of the predicted center and reported the lowest pressure I've seen with this storm (1002.1 mb) and a sustained wind from the south at 28 knots.

That probably means the central pressure is around 1000mb.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Mods, if I am not allowed to post links to polls like that here, could you shoot me PM?

[boca]

Could that shortwave in the plains actually sharpen the trough along the east coast?

[cycloneye]

Mods, if I am not allowed to post links to polls like that here, could you shoot me PM?

You can as is another of our forums.

[Macrocane]

00z FIM is in agreement with the CMC and shows a landfall in Louisiana: