ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

Yes, convection is bursting impressively. I have seen this type of blow-up of convection many times in developing Tropical Storms that ramped up quickly: a rapid blowup that curves westward and over the center of circulation.

[ozonepete]

I'm just happy to have another GFS vs Euro match
OK it's about time I'll give Ernesto the stamp

LOL, Jevo! Yeah, I think this one is going to be another knock-down drag-out fight between the two. GFS had a super tune-up over the winter and so far it's whumpin' A. Well ok, it got one right.

[ROCK]

noticed on the 00Z CMC it has shifted south again to almost under the TVCN blend plot.....the 00Z GFS and tonights EURO might clear somethings up...doubt it though...

[floridasun78]

00z plots...

yes look like more shift to left

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM model at 144 hours has a deep system in the Western Caribbean. It goes on to send the system into the BOC and Mexico:

[Hurricane Alexis]

18z NOGAPS - headed for central La. LOL, it also develops our Bahamas wave into a major storm - gotta love the navy model.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2012080218&set=Tropical

I find the NOGAPS entertaining.

[LSU2001]

I think ole Ernie is starting to get that look. You know the one where it looks like it could really take off at any time. Now he could die down again in a few hours but I really think he continues to consolidate and when conditions improve a bit it will get real interesting real fast.
Tim




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[floridasun78]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... nvest1.gif and here is http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... t1best.gif their more stift to left

[Hurricane Alexis]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/12zatcflateinvest1.gif and here is http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... t1best.gif their more stift to left

And in the long run they forecast a more northward shift.

[ozonepete]

Wow, there is the potential here for really impressive rainfall over the central islands. Take care, guys.

[hurricanes1234]

At this point, I would really hope that the countries under TS warnings, particularly Barbados, are well-prepared. If not, well, you should start doing so by stocking up on goods (water, oil, batteries, canned foods, matches, candles, etc.), boarding your homes with durable, waterproof wood and by bringing in all plants and pets. You should also try your best to stay as calm as possible.

[floridasun78]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/12zatcflateinvest1.gif and here is http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... t1best.gif their more stift to left

And in the long run they forecast a more northward shift.

more toward western tip cuba

[floridasun78]

any reports from islands?

[SouthDadeFish]

Not quite over the center yet:

[floridasun78]

i mean to right not left stift of models

[cycloneye]

Barbados radar.



http://www.brohavwx.com/

[sunnyday]

I hope everyone in its path is safe. Local mets and newspapers say no threat to Fl. Is it a bit early to say for sure?

[SeminoleWind]

wouldnt be surprised to see more of them bend up toward Cuba later, JMO

[floridasun78]

I hope everyone in its path is safe. Local mets and newspapers say no threat to Fl. Is it a bit early to say for sure?

new run models are more to right let see cone at 11pm

[ROCK]

wouldnt be surprised to see more of them bend up toward Cuba later, JMO

all depends on the ridge and placement. Too far out right now to take any stock after 5 days....