ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[TwisterFanatic]

The northern models are pretty meaningless. The ones that matter are still rather far south.

[ROCK]

The northern models are pretty meaningless. The ones that matter are still rather far south.

yeah those models are blends and I think a few GFS ensembles mixed in there. the EURO, 18Z GFS, CMC are still into the Yucatan...and some have it dying there....00Z GFS will be interesting...as well as the EURO tonight. They will have the RECON data in them....

[Hurricane Alexis]

The northern models are pretty meaningless. The ones that matter are still rather far south.

How? The GFS and Euro are the meaningless ones until we see what the 00z run brings. The one that makes the most sense right now is the HWRF.

[SFLcane]

[ROCK]

The northern models are pretty meaningless. The ones that matter are still rather far south.

How? The GFS and Euro are the meaningless ones until we see what the 00z run brings. The one that makes the most sense right now is the HWRF.

How so? your going to put stock in the HWRF run? it opens it up into a wave then closes it off again at the Yucatan as a minimal TS....

[SeminoleWind]

Pretty cool GIF were did you find it?

[ronjon]

The key to ernestos eventual track is the forecast 500 mb pattern. Both the GFS and Euro ensemble mean forecast the ridge along the the northern gulf coast to weaken in 4-5 days. The key to Ernies path is that the GFS quickly rebuilds this ridge after a day or two of weakening, while the Euro breaks down the ridge for 3 or 4 days. We'll have to see which UL pattern evolves over the next few days.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

...ERNESTO GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY TOWARDS BARBADOS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 58.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...DATA FROM THE BARBADOS RADAR INDICATED
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ERNESTO SHOULD PASS NEAR BARBADOS LATER TONIGHT...BE NEAR
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY FRIDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT25 KNHC 030231
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
0300 UTC FRI AUG 03 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 58.3W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 58.3W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 57.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.7N 61.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.0N 64.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.4N 67.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.0N 70.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.3N 76.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 17.9N 81.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 19.7N 84.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 58.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[SFLcane]

Pretty cool GIF were did you find it?

Sorry about that here ya go. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/wxmap2/

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 58.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[JPmia]

The key to ernestos eventual track is the forecast 500 mb pattern. Both the GFS and Euro ensemble mean forecast the ridge along the the northern gulf coast to weaken in 4-5 days. The key to Ernies path is that the GFS quickly rebuilds this ridge after a day or two of weakening, while the Euro breaks down the ridge for 3 or 4 days. We'll have to see which UL pattern evolves over the next few days.

Guess that's what the GFDL is hinting at:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

[Blown Away]

The last time we had Ernesto in the Atlantic was 2006 which ironically is similar in track in the short-term for this year's Ernesto. At the time it was expected to go west towards the Yucatan and Southern GOM. Look what happened. Of course at that time there was a big upper-level low that was moving in tandem with Ernesto west in the Caribbean that the models could not resolve properly that influenced the track.....

Not saying it is going to do this at all but check out the animation of how the 5-day cone kept shifting more and more right with each run:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/gr ... p_5W.shtml

The point is that tracks beyond 5 days are certainly not set in stone, let alone those in the short-term or medium term range....

Great post, how ironic, same storm name and almost same starting point.

[Nederlander]

The minimal strengthening by the models might be explained by the desert Ernesto will be dealing with shortly, or to be frank, is already dealing with..

http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg696/sc ... es=landing

You are using the GOES water vapor satllite image, which only reliably shows upper level water vaporwhich has no importance in its effect on tropical cyclones. It is only mid-level water vapor that affects them. Look at CIMSS for good charts on mid-level water vapor: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

Thanks for pointing this out. Learn something new every day. I knew that mid-level moisture was what mattered, but I did not know that the GOES was upper level. Thanks!

[cycloneye]

Track a little to the right at end.

[SeminoleWind]

The key to ernestos eventual track is the forecast 500 mb pattern. Both the GFS and Euro ensemble mean forecast the ridge along the the northern gulf coast to weaken in 4-5 days. The key to Ernies path is that the GFS quickly rebuilds this ridge after a day or two of weakening, while the Euro breaks down the ridge for 3 or 4 days. We'll have to see which UL pattern evolves over the next few days.

Guess that's what the GFDL is hinting at:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

Pretty interesting run there.Guess we will have to see what EURO and GFS show later

[ROCK]

NHC moved the cone ever so slightly to the north at day 5......but all in all the same as before....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/gr ... p_5W.shtml


see here the progression of the cone....

[CrazyC83]

Another possible analog I can think of might be Charley, depending on if a trough can come in.

[Zeno8]

What an ugly cone!

[floridasun78]

Track a little to the right at end.

http://oi45.tinypic.com/11il6bc.jpg

bit more cuba under cone

[JamesCaneTracker]

Have no idea when they took off or exactly where they are right now but...

000
URNT15 KNHC 022355
AF300 WXWXA 120802214625300 HDOB 13 20120802
234700 2941N 09458W 9411 00638 0113 +244 +217 191012 013 /// /// 03
234730 2943N 09458W 9413 00634 0112 +245 +217 185012 013 /// /// 03
234800 2944N 09500W 9408 00639 0112 +245 +217 191010 011 /// /// 03
234830 2943N 09501W 9423 00631 0114 +248 +220 189009 011 /// /// 03
234900 2943N 09502W 9426 00623 0111 +250 +218 197010 011 /// /// 03
234930 2942N 09503W 9420 00628 0111 +246 +221 198010 011 /// /// 03
235000 2941N 09504W 9445 00608 0117 +248 +221 201011 011 /// /// 03
235030 2940N 09505W 9578 00489 0119 +257 +229 200011 011 /// /// 03
235100 2940N 09506W 9682 00386 0114 +265 +233 191011 012 /// /// 03
235130 2939N 09507W 9808 00273 0113 +277 +234 188012 014 /// /// 03
235200 2938N 09508W 9930 00164 0113 +286 +236 189011 012 /// /// 03
235230 2937N 09508W 0049 00060 0119 +296 +238 176009 011 /// /// 03
235300 2936N 09509W 0103 00001 0107 +301 +242 171008 010 /// /// 03
235330 2936N 09510W 9870 00192 0084 +280 +236 189012 015 /// /// 03
235400 2934N 09510W 9491 00539 0093 +250 +227 200015 015 /// /// 03
235430 2933N 09508W 9394 00653 0115 +238 +221 209014 015 /// /// 03
235500 2932N 09507W 9424 00625 0116 +240 +216 207013 014 /// /// 03
235530 2932N 09506W 9418 00630 0114 +240 +215 200013 014 /// /// 03
235600 2933N 09504W 9421 00628 0115 +241 +209 195014 014 /// /// 03
235630 2934N 09503W 9422 00624 0114 +243 +206 192013 014 /// /// 03
$$
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