ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[SouthDadeFish]

Not much chance for dissipation in the latest wind probability table:

[chrisjslucia]

any reports from islands?

Like many I'm waiting to hear news from Barbados. Right now in St Lucia the wind is up, coming in from the north but no rain yet. I think most people are expecting Ernesto for Friday lunchtime - allowing us the morning to complete preparations - but he seems keen on breakfast or even a late night snack as the wind spread from the centre will be here in a couple of hours.
Will keep you all posted here or elsewhere if a report thread is set up.
Chris J

[floridasun78]

any reports from islands?

Like many I'm waiting to hear news from Barbados. Right now in St Lucia the wind is up, coming in from the north but no rain yet. I think most people are expecting Ernesto for Friday lunchtime - allowing us the morning to complete preparations - but he seems keen on breakfast or even a late night snack as the wind spread from the centre will be here in a couple of hours.
Will keep you all posted here or elsewhere if a report thread is set up.
Chris J

ok ty

[JamesCaneTracker]

Looks like another Recon mission is now underway - It's been underway for a little while.

[cycloneye]

Still waiting for discussion. CHeck the advisory thread as soon is posted.

[brunota2003]

any reports from islands?

Like many I'm waiting to hear news from Barbados. Right now in St Lucia the wind is up, coming in from the north but no rain yet. I think most people are expecting Ernesto for Friday lunchtime - allowing us the morning to complete preparations - but he seems keen on breakfast or even a late night snack as the wind spread from the centre will be here in a couple of hours.
Will keep you all posted here or elsewhere if a report thread is set up.
Chris J

There is an obs/prep thread...it is a sticky!

Link:
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113201

Best of luck to y'all!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BARBADOS INDICATE ERNESTO HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THESE DATA
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED OR DEVELOPED
FARTHER NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY THE UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/19 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON RADAR
DATA AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER AND LESSER
ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND STEER ERNESTO ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. BY
DAYS 4 AND 5...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
TAKING ERNESTO INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFDL
MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE TO WESTERN CUBA BY 120 HOURS. THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK... MAINLY DUE
TO THE MORE POLEWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...WHICH HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE CROSS-TRACK
VARIATION OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS.

THE RATHER FAST FORWARD SPEED COMBINED WITH SOME MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT
AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF WARMER SSTS...INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
DECREASING SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO
OCCUR. IN FACT...IF ERNESTO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...
MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS
INDICATED BY THE LGEM AND STATISTICAL HFIP EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY
MODELS... WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS WHEN
THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AND UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTED BY LAND REQUIRES THAT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 13.4N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 13.7N 61.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 14.0N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 14.4N 67.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 15.0N 70.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 16.3N 76.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 17.9N 81.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 19.7N 84.6W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

The most important words of discussion are these.

IF ERNESTO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...
MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS
INDICATED BY THE LGEM AND STATISTICAL HFIP EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY
MODELS... WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS WHEN
THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AND UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTED BY LAND REQUIRES THAT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME.

[brunota2003]

That's a training flight (notice in the header it says WXWXA, meaning it is a training flight). Looking at the coordinates, they are either just off of the coast or on the coast of Texas.

To be specific...it appears they are over Galveston Harbor.

[caribsue]

Still waiting for discussion. CHeck the advisory thread as soon is posted.

Reporting from Barbados (South Coast) Just had a brief shower here, just a little thunder and a few flashes of lighting.

[cycloneye]

Still waiting for discussion. CHeck the advisory thread as soon is posted.

Reporting from Barbados (South Coast) Just had a brief shower here, just a little thunder and a few flashes of lighting.

If conditions allow and if no power outage occurs,keep posting reports from that islands. Stay safe and dry.

[floridasun78]

WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS????? that change

[ozonepete]

The minimal strengthening by the models might be explained by the desert Ernesto will be dealing with shortly, or to be frank, is already dealing with..

http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg696/sc ... es=landing

You are using the GOES water vapor satllite image, which only reliably shows upper level water vaporwhich has no importance in its effect on tropical cyclones. It is only mid-level water vapor that affects them. Look at CIMSS for good charts on mid-level water vapor: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

Thanks for pointing this out. Learn something new every day. I knew that mid-level moisture was what mattered, but I did not know that the GOES was upper level. Thanks!

You are very welcome. That's what I love about storm2k. We all make each other better here. There is nothing more important than getting the science more correct, because if we do we get the forecast more correct.

[brunota2003]

WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS????? that change

You really need to include the *full* section when referring to that:

IN FACT...IF ERNESTO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...
MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS
INDICATED BY THE LGEM AND STATISTICAL HFIP EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY
MODELS... WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS WHEN
THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AND UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTED BY LAND REQUIRES THAT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME.

Any storm in that region has the potential to become a monster under the right conditions...the forecaster is just mentioning that two models, one of which is experimental, is showing this potential. The forecast intensity is lower currently due to many uncertainties, which shows just how hard intensity forecasts are, and how little we know.

[cycloneye]

Barbados radar at 11 PM AST.

[cheezyWXguy]

The most important words of discussion are these.

IF ERNESTO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...
MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS
INDICATED BY THE LGEM AND STATISTICAL HFIP EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY
MODELS... WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS WHEN
THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AND UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTED BY LAND REQUIRES THAT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME.

Wow, sounds like this could be the first system this year thats the real deal. If such ideal conditions do pan out in the future, it seems to me that the only major threat to Ernesto's strength is himself, assuming he steers clear of the islands. With Ernesto's quick speed and relatively poor organization atm, it wouldnt be unprecedented to see him fall apart before getting to the western caribbean (see TS Earl of 2003), as so many others do in the east caribbean "graveyard" this time of year. I am starting to feel more confident that this one will make it through though and may be a major player in the gulf if those intensity models are correct.

[ROCK]

00Z GFS is rolling....this should be interesting. It has the RECON data in it....

doesnt really initialize it well....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[MGC]

Not liking the 11pm discussion at all....The thought of a MH possibly moving through the Yucatan Channel brings back memories of Ivan. Pray for dissipation......MGC

[floridasun78]

i was thinking Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) was one put data in models

[Hurricane Alexis]

00Z GFS is rolling....this should be interesting. It has the RECON data in it....

doesnt really initialize it well....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

I was really waiting for this run and saw how it didn't start of well.