ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jimsot]

It's almost 'nowcast' time for Anguilla. First bits of rain and heavy, heavy rumbling to the east.

[jlauderdal]

Weird discussion of Issac on NBC6 Miami is morning. Met Ryan Phillips said "there are too many variables to predict what impact Issac will have on Florida yet" but then said "we are in the center of the cone and will be there for some time."

whats weird about that, both statements are absolutely correct....however, since you are in south florida then you really need to beware of factually incorrect statements from our local media, even some of the weather staff...you will hear things in the next few days that will make you go HUH

[JPmia]

I will be glued to Max Mayfield on Channel 10.. We haven't seen this much model consistency since Wilma.. for a south Florida storm at least

[Weatherboy1]

Very interesting setup this morning to say the least. And definitely watching closely here in South FL! As another poster noted, we're seeing the windshield wiper effect between runs -slightly more east on one, slightly more west on the other. But all in all, FL does appear to be under the gun here. Just a question of whether it's South Fl or the Panhandle at this time. My opinion, as an amateur, as always!

[Gustywind]

It's almost 'nowcast' time for Anguilla. First bits of rain and heavy, heavy rumbling to the east.

Thanks for your report. Be safe and dry Jimsot . Continue to monitor closely the situation and be vigilant. All our friends in the islands will keep you informed as usual and as possible.

[Dean4Storms]

Not much of a core to Isaac and he continues to struggle.

[jlauderdal]

I will be glued to Max Mayfield on Channel 10.. We haven't seen this much model consistency since Wilma.. for a south Florida storm at least

yep, channel 10 has the best with mayfield and trent aric, channel 4 is second, channel 5 is third and then the hype machine is last

[jusforsean]

Yes, Erie Wilma like reminder we were the target. Either way looks like we will be on the dirty side of the storm.

[TheBurn]

10:15 UTC VIS

[NDG]

Radar from Barbados and microwave imagery show that the convection is still being pushed to the SW of the LLC, it is still suffering from NE shear this morning, but definitely not as destructive if we would had been talking about a SW shear with the storm moving so fast.

[DESTRUCTION5]

NHC said 24 hrs more of shear before he shows his real colors...

[BobHarlem]

The official forecast track for Isaac this morning looks almost identical to Irene's first forecast track last year.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[GCANE]

VIS showing two large hot-towers

Can see the one at 16.1N 56.8W, 0945Z rotate CCW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

The other is seen clearly at 15.4N 58.5W, 1045Z

NexSat is still showing rain-rate maxed out at 1045Z

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS ... bean.0.jpg

[tolakram]

Morning HiRes Visible

[Gustywind]

Hurricane Season

Tropical Storm Isaac heading toward Caribbean

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Aug 22, 2012 2:59 am ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC

- Isaac is starting to get a little better organized, but latest aircraft reconnaissance which has been investigating has not found signs of significant/rapid strengthening.

- The first land area to be affected is the Lesser Antilles today (Wednesday) into tomorrow with bands of heavy rain and very gusty winds.

- Next, the system will head across the northern Caribbean late this week and this weekend, near the Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba). Its intensity during and immediately after this trek will be determined in part by the extent to which the core of the storm spends tracks over land; regardless of how much the system cranks up wind-wise, it will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

- In the longer range, i.e. next week, critical track and timing uncertainties increase (along with the inherent intensity uncertainty which is notorious with tropical cyclones). In fact, our two main "global" models in their latest runs diverge wildly in their track forecasts, the GFS model racing the storm into South Florida on Monday, and the ECMWF ("European") keeping the ridge of high pressure to the north stronger, blocking the storm and swerving it west to just north of the Yucatan during the first part of the week and then pulling it up to Louisiana late in the week. The last time there was such a Clash of the Titans, with Debby, it was an Epic FAIL for the ECMWF; we'll see which model is better this time.

- Regardless, there's a high probability of the United States being affected, so residents and visitors in the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and East Coast as well as the Yucatan should be vigilant and stay abreast of the latest forecast trends.

[cycloneye]

ISAAC NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 58.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[Javlin]

FC1 15.8N/58.1W actual 15.7/58.4 not to shabby on the part of the NHC next forcast pt is for 7pm 16.2N/61.2W

[GCANE]

Hot tower has finished firing

Duration: ~2.5 hrs

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... bean.0.jpg

[GCANE]

Animated Microwave showing strong core intensification now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... layIR.html

[CronkPSU]

JB's latest track via twitter

@BigJoeBastardi

have not changed forecast but not going write off highest scoring model in fork in road pattern pic.twitter.com/gurZXxlj



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