ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Sandy is one of the most interesting storms I've seen since I started tracking tropical cyclones in 2005 unfortunately is one of the most dangerous too, could it break the record as the largest Atlantic tropical cyclone in terms of windfield?

I concur on that. Also, I have never seen a track from south to north thru Jamaica and then making landfall in Santiago de Cuba.

[Weatherguy173]

is it me or does it look like Sandy is slowly strengthening?

[crimi481]

Is the old ULL (below Keys) comig down to surface? Its wrapng around w. side of Sandy's center
May replace the dry air there -with moisture. can almost see why few Models move Center on S.E. Fl coast before looping.
Center may go join that ULL center?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Weatherguy173]

Is the old ULL (below Keys) comig down to surface? Its wrapng around w. side of Sandy's center
May replace the dry air there -with moisture. can almost see why few Models move Center on S.E. Fl coast before looping.
Center may go join that ULL center?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

could that lead to it re-strengthening?

[artist]

Hubby came back from Hollywood, said a number of places between there and Ft. Laudeerdale were without power. Said a large tree at the building he was at had come down.

[CrazyC83]

Right now the best guess for the intensity is 70 kt based on Recon data. Still, I think even if it weakens to a tropical storm, the dynamics are there to rebuild the system as it approaches the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic.

[HurricaneBill]

21 deaths (11 in Cuba, 9 in Haiti, and 1 in Jamaica)

Hurricane Sandy lashes Bahamas after 21 deaths elsewhere

[crimi481]

Is the old ULL (below Keys) comig down to surface? Its wrapng around w. side of Sandy's center
May replace the dry air there -with moisture. can almost see why few Models move Center on S.E. Fl coast before looping.
Center may go join that ULL center?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

could that lead to it re-strengthening?

I have no clue at this point. Not even sure what the heck this storm is. Staring history in the "eye" tonight
But - appears to be strengthening - for reasons I am trying to figure out.

[HurrMark]

Right now the best guess for the intensity is 70 kt based on Recon data. Still, I think even if it weakens to a tropical storm, the dynamics are there to rebuild the system as it approaches the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic.

Agree...I think a TS is not out of the question by tomorrow night or Saturday...but that isn't to say we are out of the woods by any stretch.

[Macrocane]

Great explanation about Sandy's unusual pattern: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcross/show.html?entrynum=18

[Weatherguy173]

Great explanation about Sandy's unusual pattern: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcross/show.html?entrynum=18

wow... seems like a doomsday scenario

[CrazyC83]

Right now the best guess for the intensity is 70 kt based on Recon data. Still, I think even if it weakens to a tropical storm, the dynamics are there to rebuild the system as it approaches the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic.

Agree...I think a TS is not out of the question by tomorrow night or Saturday...but that isn't to say we are out of the woods by any stretch.

Even if it is only a 55 or 60 kt TS-strength storm at landfall, the size would mean the IKE is outrageous and the damage potential extreme...

[brunota2003]

I actually think a 55 or 60 knot TS into NYC is worse than a 65 knot hurricane. Why? Because many people think Irene was a hurricane when it passed by, and if they survived the "hurricane" that was so hyped up, then they should have no problems with a "weak" tropical storm...even if the surge it brings is 5 feet higher.

[stephen23]

I actually think a 55 or 60 knot TS into NYC is worse than a 65 knot hurricane. Why? Because many people think Irene was a hurricane when it passed by, and if they survived the "hurricane" that was so hyped up, then they should have no problems with a "weak" tropical storm...even if the surge it brings is 5 feet higher.

I agree Brunota. I think it would be better if it were still a hurricane so people would lidten to evac orders. See it time and time again in the gulf.

[CrazyC83]

I actually think a 55 or 60 knot TS into NYC is worse than a 65 knot hurricane. Why? Because many people think Irene was a hurricane when it passed by, and if they survived the "hurricane" that was so hyped up, then they should have no problems with a "weak" tropical storm...even if the surge it brings is 5 feet higher.

In either case, it would likely be a post-tropical storm at the time. Few models bring winds stronger than 90 kt at 850mb anywhere, which OVER WATER translates to about 72 kt sustained in a true tropical storm, so it may not even have cane force winds at landfall despite an insanely low pressure below 950mb. It would just be spread over a humongous area.

[CrazyC83]

One other thing: the cone here is practically useless. Regardless of landfall point, severe wind and flood damage is likely in the entire Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and 50 or 100 miles will make little difference. The size will be far, far bigger than the cone.

[chaser1]

Just as a quick side note, the upper outflow shield over Sandy, extends over 40 degree's of longitude (from 45W to 85W).

[Sanibel]

Nice black IR CDO re-shaping.

[stephen23]

Man the deep convection really seems to be expanding!!

[phishy_mama]

I am not a native to the eastern shore but have been here for few years now. On Chincoteague most of the damage we have seen in recent years have come from Nor'easters. Particularly with regards to coastal flooding. That makes this storm scary for us IMHO. Any thoughts on storm surge since it looks like this will hit during the full moon cycle. If current models persist it may be coming in at a particularly bad angle as well. We are at the south point of Assateague Bay on the east side of Chincoteague so not much between us and the ocean.

I guess when the planes stop flying out of Wallops/NOAA we will know it is bad