ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

NHC track expected it to move WNW and its just not happening...same with models...only EURO shows due west.

What are you looking at that shows due west movement? Recon fixes show WNW and the history line shows this as well.

they show 280 which is west. but not "due" west.

[Weatherfreak000]

NHC track expected it to move WNW and its just not happening...same with models...only EURO shows due west.

I was just looking at that too...I think models will shift dramatically west today

At this point everything the EURO has shown has been validated. If the storm died out today you'd have to think EURO won the war. I think I'm drinking the koolaid now rock lol

[tolakram]

Last recon fixes (looks more dramatic than it is due to wobbles and inexact fixes)

[Jevo]

NHC track expected it to move WNW and its just not happening...same with models...only EURO shows due west.

I see slight N component, not sure if it's WNW though Was 270 @ 5am now 280

[KWT]

I'm not convinced the models will shift that much west, so far this system has been tracking a little north of where the models have been expecting, that tells me the mid level ridge maybe just a touch overdone.

I think this one will hit Hispaniola, I really can't see any way this one misses at the moment, if it does miss, IMO it'll be to the north not the south.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree with what a couple of other posters have said. The lack of intensification only means that there's a greater chance of it avoiding all the major island land massess all together now, which would mean much more intensification once it gets
into the Carib...

--------------------------
Disclaimer:
Any opinions posted by me are my opinions only, based off a long history of watching storms evolve and develop.

[psyclone]

I lost count of the amount of storms expected to strengthen in the graveyard that didn't. Yes there have been THAT MANY. If your on the NGOM watch models this morning trend is west....we won't have as much time before NHC sounds alarm best be prepared for anything.

the five day end point is near the southwest coast of florida. if the storm veers west toward the northern gulf coast that would probably be 7 or 8 days out so suggesting you won't have as much time at this point is just not accurate. even if the NHC was leaning to a NGOM solution it would take awhile before the 5 day point touched the shore. for those stateside, it's just too soon to do anything other than monitor the storm, which, by the way, appears to be continuing to struggle.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

280 track from now on takes it just south of Hispaniola, but only just...290 takes it just north of the island.

Anything in between takes it through and I suspect a long term average it'll be inbetween that figure.

[robbielyn]

what affect would td10 cause on isaac's track? would it cause it to go more on a westward track fujiwara effect or is it too far away to have any impact?

[KWT]

I remember something similar happening with Irene last year, that was expected to go south and that ended up going over the islands rather than under, I've got just a sneaking feeling this may do the same.

Conversly, I do still think this goes into the gulf, not sure it'll curve up as soon as the models think.

[Jevo]

NHC track expected it to move WNW and its just not happening...same with models...only EURO shows due west.

I was just looking at that too...I think models will shift dramatically west today

At this point everything the EURO has shown has been validated. If the storm died out today you'd have to think EURO won the war. I think I'm drinking the koolaid now rock lol

Until this thing verifies out just remember who still holds the crown this season



Seriously though back to Isaac.. Sorry mods I couldnt resist

[deltadog03]

I still think the EURO is a bit too far WEST and the GFS is a bit too far EAST. I think this RIDES along the WEST coast of FL or just into the EGOM and makes landfall near the big bend of FL. *moving North*

[Weatherfreak000]

NHC track expected it to move WNW and its just not happening...same with models...only EURO shows due west.

I see slight N component, not sure if it's WNW though Was 270 @ 5am now 280

Actually sir you are. 48 hours ago nhc said it would be at 16.2 if your point is NHC will adjust track I'd say that's obvious

[Aric Dunn]

I still think the EURO is a bit too far WEST and the GFS is a bit too far EAST. I think this RIDES along the WEST coast of FL or just into the EGOM and makes landfall near the big bend of FL. *moving North*

sounds about right.

[KWT]

I still think the EURO is a bit too far WEST and the GFS is a bit too far EAST. I think this RIDES along the WEST coast of FL or just into the EGOM and makes landfall near the big bend of FL. *moving North*

Yep I agree, the other thing people need to remember is just because it heads a little north or south of the current track that doesn't mean it'll stay, it'd only take 12hrs longer of WNW track to easily make up any slightly more northern motion over the next few hours than the models expect.

[SFLcane]

I still think the EURO is a bit too far WEST and the GFS is a bit too far EAST. I think this RIDES along the WEST coast of FL or just into the EGOM and makes landfall near the big bend of FL. *moving North*

If this rides up the west coast of florida it would put all most of south florida on the dirty side of what might be a dangerous storm at the time.

[wxman76]

I too like a track between the GFS and EURO, but I'm not ready to completely throw out the EURO. Also convection now firing again on the Eastern Side of the storm.

[Vortex]

I still think the EURO is a bit too far WEST and the GFS is a bit too far EAST. I think this RIDES along the WEST coast of FL or just into the EGOM and makes landfall near the big bend of FL. *moving North*

sounds about right.

Also thinking same...

[Javlin]

well it looks like or ULL to the NE is imparting something on the system if anything imparting some dry air possibily.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[Weatherfreak000]

Isaac hasn't gained as much latitude as expected so the nhc will have to keep shifting. How long will this continue? .7 degrees south of forecast two days ago is substantial. Think about it