ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Ivanhater]

I don't see the center exposed. Microwave is showing a strong circulation. Given the forecast environment, favorable conditions are ahead

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Ernesto continues to fire convection over its center despite moving at over 20 mph. Its partial eyewall is probably slowly building.

Doing better than Colin or Ophelia..that's for sure.

[RL3AO]

Guys its doing exactly as expected. Keeping enough convection around a well defined circulation. Lets see what it does in 48 hours.

[Rgv20]

Looking at the 0zECMWF Ensemble Control Run it has Ernesto making landfall near Tampico, Mx by Friday Evening.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS barely even making it into the BOC now and keeps it very weak. Starting to have a hard time believing the dynamical models making this a hurricane in the western carib and moving NW.

[ROCK]

12z GFS barely even making it into the BOC now and keeps it very weak. Starting to have a hard time believing the dynamical models making this a hurricane in the western carib and moving NW.

I think its seeing the forward speed thus keeping it weak....but it is the GFS and I am not going there this time around...

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone is gone

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

[greenkat]

Looks like the same story as Tomas so far...

[GCANE]

That 200mb PV anomaly is still dead ahead.

LLC could take a hit as it gets closer.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[ozonepete]

Anti-cyclone is gone

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

But that's ok. Weak and moderate TSs often don't have them. As long as the convection is venting, even if unevenly, it should maintain until it reaches a better environment. At that point, as you know, it will usually build its own - it doesn't have to move under an existing one.

[ConvergenceZone]

I do notice that the NHC backed off of the "major hurricane" wording they had in last night's discussion...

[ROCK]

I do notice that the NHC backed off of the "major hurricane" wording they had in last night's discussion...

lack of model support most likely. I wouldnt rule out anything at this point...

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone is gone

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

But that's ok. Weak and moderate TSs often don't have them. As long as the convection is venting, even if unevenly, it should maintain until it reaches a better environment. At that point, as you know, it will usually build its own - it doesn't have to move under an existing one.

A good hot-tower always does wonders for building one.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS barely even making it into the BOC now and keeps it very weak. Starting to have a hard time believing the dynamical models making this a hurricane in the western carib and moving NW.

I think its seeing the forward speed thus keeping it weak....but it is the GFS and I am not going there this time around...

If the 12z Euro holds serve, well, it's hard to go against the two best global models here.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

My forecast for Ernesto:



It's more in line with the LGEM, SHIPS, and other statistical models which show rapid intensification after the same enters the NW Caribbean. I believe a stronger strong will tend to move more poleward and feel the "tug" of the trough that should be located over the East USA at that time.

[GCANE]

Going to be moving over a nice pool of high OHC water in about 24 hrs.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031200.GIF

[ROCK]

I always like this map.....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL


you can see that pool there Gcane...

[tolakram]

This is what I meant by exposed ... aka I can see it. Looks like a dry air problem more than a shear problem, but this was 2 hours ago.

[ConvergenceZone]

I do notice that the NHC backed off of the "major hurricane" wording they had in last night's discussion...

lack of model support most likely. I wouldnt rule out anything at this point...

Yea, I'm not as bullish on the development of Ernesto as I was last night, but I do think
it will still become a cat 1 hurricane before all is said and done, whether it's in the western carib or western gulf...It's going through some problems now, but once it gets into the western carib it should start to strengthen again.

[gatorcane]

If 91L develops in the Bahamas, it will be interesting to see if it will influence the track of Ernesto....thoughts?