ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

yeah new image showing the center.

just north of the forecast track looks like it will pass just north of or over Guadalupe

[crimi481]

Hard to figure is that Sahara Dusty air will moisten up - or becomes permanent part of the Storms N..E Quad
Track into S.E. Gulf has validity

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

The more I see the motion the more I think this one has a real chance of going NORTH not SOUTH based on the current motion that seems to be closer to WNW than due west.

Of course center relocations could chage everything, I wonder what the exact center is doing at the moment motion wise.

You can see that ULL is causing problems for it, I don't think this one is going to be strengthening anytime soon.

[WeatherGuesser]

Well, if y'all are right, the Panhandle/Big Bend region are in for one thing they really don't need. Either H or TS will bring a whole lotta rain.

Maybe if we all wish hard enough, we can get it to come up the Mississippi where people DO need rain.

[Hurricaneman]

I see an area of rotation to the south of the surface low, is that an eddy, center relocation or the MLC being sheared well away from the surface low. I personally think a center relocation is in the process of happening

Id like to hear what you guys think

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman76]

12z GFS crosses the Keys Just East of Key West. 141 hour 50 or so miles west of Tampa Staying offshore. New t-storms firing north of center but UL looks disturbed. Frankly I am having a hard time actually figuring where the center is on the Satellite.

[KWT]

I see an area of rotation to the south of the surface low, is that an eddy, center relocation or the MLC being sheared well away from the surface low. I personally think a center relocation is in the process of happening

Id like to hear what you guys think

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given the shear that is on this system, I suppose that is very much possible. I've not seen the loops in the last hour or so due to watching the GFS run, but its more than possible.

This is a relief for the LA though.

[CrazyC83]

I see an area of rotation to the south of the surface low, is that an eddy, center relocation or the MLC being sheared well away from the surface low. I personally think a center relocation is in the process of happening

Id like to hear what you guys think

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given the shear that is on this system, I suppose that is very much possible. I've not seen the loops in the last hour or so due to watching the GFS run, but its more than possible.

This is a relief for the LA though.

Such a relocation would change the track farther south - better chance of missing Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

[Blown Away]

Hispaniola is the key:
1. Follows current NHC projected path, major disruption passing over Hispaniola, too much time over Cuba, very little time over water before impacting SW Florida.
2. Skims north coast, misses Cuba, much higher intensity potential, historically much better odds of striking SFL from that latitude.
3. Skims south coast, more time over water before Cuba, higher intensity potential, historically much better odds of making it into the GOM from that latitude.

Check it out for yourself: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes
Set location on Hispaniola's north coast and then on the south coast. Generally different path when systems pass through.

This should not be used as a forecast, just my opinion only!

[ConvergenceZone]

The more I see the motion the more I think this one has a real chance of going NORTH not SOUTH based on the current motion that seems to be closer to WNW than due west.

Of course center relocations could chage everything, I wonder what the exact center is doing at the moment motion wise.

You can see that ULL is causing problems for it, I don't think this one is going to be strengthening anytime soon.

If you are right KWT and it DOES go north into the Islands. I don't see Isaac getting
any stronger then about 55 MPH. I'm basing that off of it's current conditions
as well as how difficult it's been for it to strengthen as well as projected future
conditions. If a 55 mph tropical storms hits the islands, I don't think there will be
much of it left at all by the time it exits the islands, which will just mean a large convective
rainstorm for Florida. So while this may end up being a non wind event, there may still be
quite a bit of flooding from it.



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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[fci]

I don't know what you guys are seeing. Save for the EURO, which is an outlier and no perfect, the consensus takes this to Florida. You actas if you know for a fact the models will change. Maybe they will, but for now look at where they actually are.

Always look for trends.
When you see the local NWS offices start to show the storm tracking south of mainland Florida in its discussions and a reliable model doing the same, naturally you project a trend to be starting. Oft times they end up becoming the reality.

[KWT]

Of course if it heads due west over the next 24hrs than my arguement for a more northern track would be totally stupid.

Its low level structure is really struggling from the seems of things.

I also think that the ULL that is diving down from the NE maybe having a slight effect on the motion by weakening the upper ridge a little.

Who knows for sure though!!

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

LLC?

[otowntiger]

Satellite imagery and recon indicate that Isaac is really struggling with ENE wind shear and dry air into the core. There are no squalls within 50nm of the center. Soundings from the islands indicate a good bit of mid-level dry air that's likely being driven into Isaac's core by the persistent ENE wind shear. Good news for the Lesser Antilles is that any 45 mph sustained winds probably cover only a small area, and significant strengthening is unlikely before Isaac crosses into the eastern Caribbean.

I'm not really so sure Isaac will become a hurricane in the NE Caribbean. All other systems have struggled there this year, and I don't think the conditions there are so different than when Ernesto or Seven/Helene passed through. Down the road, I'm still not sure if the center will pass west, over, or east of the FL Peninsula. However, I am starting to doubt whether it will be a hurricane Monday morning.

Excellent news!

[psyclone]

all of the discussion of a potential core disruption over the greater antilles is moot until the system actually establishes a core. it looks terrible and i am surprised it has done so poorly. certainly good news for the islands so far. at this point when looking at Isaac I'm reminded of the old Wendy's commercials..."where's the beef". I recognize things can change quickly as was the case with Ernesto but at this point I'm waiting for Isaac to show us the money.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxwatcher1999]

Satellite imagery and recon indicate that Isaac is really struggling with ENE wind shear and dry air into the core. There are no squalls within 50nm of the center. Soundings from the islands indicate a good bit of mid-level dry air that's likely being driven into Isaac's core by the persistent ENE wind shear. Good news for the Lesser Antilles is that any 45 mph sustained winds probably cover only a small area, and significant strengthening is unlikely before Isaac crosses into the eastern Caribbean.

I'm not really so sure Isaac will become a hurricane in the NE Caribbean. All other systems have struggled there this year, and I don't think the conditions there are so different than when Ernesto or Seven/Helene passed through. Down the road, I'm still not sure if the center will pass west, over, or east of the FL Peninsula. However, I am starting to doubt whether it will be a hurricane Monday morning.

Excellent news!

I'm not sure that is good news for the western and northern gulf coast

[Blown Away]

all of the discussion of a potential core disruption over the greater antilles is moot until the system actually establishes a core. it looks terrible and i am surprised it has done so poorly. certainly good news for the islands so far. at this point when looking at Isaac I'm reminded of the old Wendy's commercials..."where's the beef". I recognize things can change quickly as was the case with Ernesto but at this point I'm waiting for Isaac to show us the money.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yesterday's 11am NHC disco said Isaac would be a 40kt TS at 11am today, so he is behaving as predicted by the NHC.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

LLC?

just a little to the wnw of that convection. check the radar. that convection will still be in the se side. still having trouble with dry air.

[KWT]

I think the shear may have picked up again lately, its never good to have a ULL plunging towards a system from the NE. Take a look at the WV imagery.

[MGC]

Isaac is in a far from ideal environment so expect slow intensification....I'm concerned that if Isaac remains shallow it will track more westward like the Euro is forecasting....which mean Isacc misses Hispaniola. I'm not going to get too excited till the Gulfstream's data is included in the models. Key is how strong the ridge to the north of Isaac is and where the weakness will develop......MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.