ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[MiamiHurricanes10]

I still wonder if this is really an intense subtropical storm. It doesn't look like a classic tropical storm at all.

Looks completely tropical to me. NHC has said it is. What makes you think it isn't?

The fact that the convection is meager, at best lol. I mean, on infrared Beryl looks uh, disastrous, in a bad way.

[Terry]

WJXT4 just tweeted:

Orange Park (NAS Jax) just recorded a wind gust of 60 mph

[ozonepete]

Mike Seidel noted just now that is an unofficial measurement and the instrument was at an elevated height...not to say that gusts to hurricane force won't happen but it seems to be an outlier reading so far...power lines coming down with gusts to 60 mph...

Per Brian Norcross on TWC, Mathews bridge in down town Jax recorded 87 mph (at an elevated height) during the past hour.

Still looks like highest winds will come in over SE Georgia and FL/GA border where there are very few measuring instruments. We may never know.

[ozonepete]

I still wonder if this is really an intense subtropical storm. It doesn't look like a classic tropical storm at all.

Looks completely tropical to me. NHC has said it is. What makes you think it isn't?

The fact that the convection is meager, at best lol. I mean, on infrared Beryl looks uh, disastrous, in a bad way.

That has nothing to do with whether it's tropical or not, right?

[jdray]

And right on cue, power went out for a minute, luckily have battery backups on internet and wifi and am on a laptop.

Might be a fun nite lol.

[HurricaneBrain]

Are there anymore Jacksonville cams? JaxPierCam is down.

[lester]

4 W Mayport [Duval Co, FL] mesonet reports TROPICAL STORM at 10:00 PM EDT -- wind gust report of 67 mph at buck island on st. johns river.

[CrazyC83]

And right on cue, power went out for a minute, luckily have battery backups on internet and wifi and am on a laptop.

Might be a fun nite lol.

Stay safe out there!

[CrazyC83]

From tweets, even in the dry slot, it is not a calm eye on the beaches.

[jdray]

WJXT4 just tweeted:

Orange Park (NAS Jax) just recorded a wind gust of 60 mph

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNIP.html
Offical, 36 sustained, 60 gust already.

Going to be a fun nite as this storm comes ashore, TS or not.

[Aric Dunn]

Are there anymore Jacksonville cams? JaxPierCam is down.

Steve is out in the storm. doing some video uploads and live streaming http://ustre.am/L0OY

[thundercam96]

It Is Quiet In Daytona Beach....Hav'nt Seen Rain Since About 7....

[Aric Dunn]

It Is Quiet In Daytona Beach....Hav'nt Seen Rain Since About 7....

yeah the south side is always typically not so exciting unless it was moving east.

[jinftl]

This bouy has been a good indicator on conditions that will be coming ashore the jax-st augustine area since it is 50 miles or so due east. The buoy is moving out of the large dry slot just moving into the jax area. So far the buoy is seeing winds comparable (a bit less so far) to what they saw on the western side of the dry slot - winds once again approaching sustained tropical force. No sign of the sustained 70 mph winds on the 8pm advisory near the buoy.

If Beryl is classified as a hurricane in post-analysis, it probably hit that a few hours ago. With half the circulation onshore, it certainly has peaked already in intensity. Satellite images show the storm looking less 'tight'...less like a storm that is 'winding up' like it did before.

[Terry]

From ActionNewsJax.com:

Sunday @ 10:16 PM: Action News reporter Catherine Varnum is at the city's Emergency Operations Center. Officials have announced that the Hart Bridge is now closed. Motorists were advised to take alternate routes

[cycloneye]

Almost at landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

Almost at landfall.

[img]http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/JAX_0.png[/ig]

well the center is just about right in the middle of eye. well duh I guess that would be the center. lol anyway still a few hours till official landfall.

[SouthFLTropics]

Beryl is giving us a nice shot of rain here in Port St. Lucie tonight with a long reaching feeder band. I still can't believe that it is May 27th and we are talking about the second named storm already. Looks to be an exciting season. Alberto and Beryl must be the Tropics equivilant to preseason football.

SFT

[Ev1948]

We are getting a lot of rain in Sebastian, thunder and lighting. All of you up North FL stay safe.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 81.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERYL SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER. HUGUENOT PARK NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEACH RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH A GUST OF 68
MPH...109 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN

TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012


A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS IN BERYL FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER
THIS EVENING AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 80 KT...AND A
RAIN-INFLATED PEAK SFMR WIND OF 62 KT. CORRECTING THE SFMR WIND FOR
THE RAIN YIELDS 55 KT. IN THIS CASE...THE SURFACE TO FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND SPEED RATIO WAS A LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL. EARLIER DOPPLER
RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATED WINDS AT 5000-6000 FT AS STRONG AS THOSE
MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT FLIGHT-LEVEL. HOWEVER...THE PLANE
MEASURED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF ONLY 50-55 KT WITHIN THIS
REGION...SUGGESTING THAT EARLIER REDUCTION FACTOR WAS REASONABLE.
SINCE THAT TIME...THE STRONG DOPPLER WIND SPEED ESTIMATES WINDS
HAVE DECREASED WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT ABOUT
3.5. A BLEND OF THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT BERYL IS NO LONGER
INTENSIFYING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS. THE
LARGE CIRCULATION OF BERYL IS ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...LEAVING NO TIME FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IN
FACT...SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY
INLAND...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
DSHIPS MODEL WHILE BERYL IS OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE WHEN BERYL EMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT IT
SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

RADAR FIXES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER BERYL WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CARRY BERYL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 30.2N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 30.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0000Z 30.5N 82.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1200Z 31.2N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0000Z 34.5N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/0000Z 37.5N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0000Z 40.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN