ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Portastorm]

The storm was supposed to be weak until it passed the islands. The shear is supposed to let up tonight and Isaac is going to be in an environment with no shear. Once Isaac gets passed the Islands it will get going. All the models except for the Euro take this storm towards Florida's direction. The Euro has been wrong with this storm from day 1 and if the Euro was so mighty as everyone claims why hasn't the NHC gone with the Euro. The Euro has been horrible all season why trust it now.

There is so much incorrect about this post that I don't know where to begin.

[Aric Dunn]

There certainly looks like there is some sort of rotation to the SW on the LLC we are watching, that area is now into the 1km zone. Hard to tell whether its a MLC or whether its another LLC circulating round.

see my image above

also looks like another deep burst of convection is starting. this time all around the center.

[alienstorm]

I think that this storm is relocating organizating south of the last location. If you look closely on satellite it has the classic S shape with a feeder band to the west and one to the east. Once these wrap into the storm center and take out the dry air then the lid will be off. Also, on the question of the TUTT in the bahamas this ULL along with the one to the NE of Isaac will eventually assist in greater outflow channels.

This is the issue, if no or minimal land interaction than a much stronger storm, if it interacts than obliously it will be weaker. But keep in mind that Isaac has a high circlulation.

[MGC]

Isaac does look rather poor this afternoon.....MDR has been cruel to systems this year....MGC

[CronkPSU]

where does the Euro take it? I thought it went in towards Tampa?

[otowntiger]

Excellent news![/quote]

I'm not sure that is good news for the western and northern gulf coast[/quote]

The poster is from "O Town"; Orlando and it is good news for him.
I live in Palm Beach County and it is good news to me.
It's all relative to where you live![/quote]

Nope, I meant good news in general. I was referring to intensity not track specifically in my comment.
But wxman57 clearly said he didn't know if Isaac would be west of, over or east of the FL peninnsuala but in any case didn't think it would be a hurricane by monday. Now how is that bad news for anyone?

[KWT]

where does the Euro take it? I thought it went in towards Tampa?

The Euro isn't out yet, check back in about 90 mins or keep to date in the model thread, going to be a most interesting run thats for sure!

[Vortex]

Strong forcing on the east side now...shear is relaxing...

[Stormcenter]

Maybe I'm not in the majority feeling this way but I think Isaac looks pretty darn impressive right now. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

[Vortex]

Maybe I'm not in the majority feeling this way but I think Isaac looks pretty darn impressive right now. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

I 2nd that...

[otowntiger]

Maybe I'm not in the majority feeling this way but I think Isaac looks pretty darn impressive right now. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

I see where you are coming from. If we back out the view it looks more formidable than the up close view of the center , that it really doesn't have. But like the NHC said the overall structure is still good just not too good at the lower levels near the center - which is a good indication of the storm's inability to intensify. Check out this view: http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... imate=true
more impressive from that angle.

[KWT]

Maybe I'm not in the majority feeling this way but I think Isaac looks pretty darn impressive right now. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

I 2nd that...

It'd be good if the center was underneath the deeper convection, but its not, its just on the very northern edge and not in the best of health.

Recon will tell us alot very soon...

[Weatherfreak000]

Maybe I'm not in the majority feeling this way but I think Isaac looks pretty darn impressive right now. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

I 2nd that...

Looks can be decieving if you're using IR

[Frank2]

It looks more impressive on the WV - but that TUTT will make all the difference if it remains in place and it becomes an exposed LLC because of that - we'll see...

P.S. A bit of deja-vu today (lost my rental house in Andrew 20 years ago this Friday)...

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe I'm not in the majority feeling this way but I think Isaac looks pretty darn impressive right now. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

I 2nd that...

It'd be good if the center was underneath the deeper convection, but its not, its just on the very northern edge and not in the best of health.

Recon will tell us alot very soon...

yeah. but fresh deep convection is firing around the center now. have to wait and see if its going to last.

[Gustywind]

Given the latest infos from the authorities... Guadeloupe should pass in RED level at 3PM.

WEATHER

Probable passage in red vigilance in the afternoon

franceantilles.fr 22.08.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 183571.php

11 AM, the center was located about 230 km East-South-East of Guadeloupe. Tropical storm ISAAC will cross tonight the Antillean arc, the center being planned to spend on Guadeloupe to 8 pm, which means that our islands will see the poor conditions associated with this storm. Weather France announced a probable passage in red vigilance during the afternoon.

[psyclone]

an infrared shot looks decent but a careful inspection using visible shows the system is an organizational shambles. having said that, i never turn my back on any storm in the heart of hurricane season... things can change fast.

[adam0983]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical storm Isaac is looking better this afternoon. I believe Isaac is getting into a no shear environment. The storm should begin to devlop now.

[Aric Dunn]

first pass by recon should take place in the next 30 min they are passing just north of Guadalupe now.

[Incoming!]

Final preparations are in place. Storm shutters will go up this evening - not so much for concern for the winds but, rather, for penetration by wind-blown rain. Good luck to all in her path!